Tbh, I hadn't done a deep dive into the numbers in #NY22 until today and kinda can't believe I'm saying this given what else happened down-ballot, but I think Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) might be on pace to win reelection in a heavy Trump district - saving Dems a key House seat.
Per @JRosenblattTV, who has done yeoman's work tracking the numbers in Upstate NY, Claudia Tenney (R) is leading Brindisi (D) 147,890 to 138,161 at the moment.
But there still thousands of heavily D mail ballots left to count in Broome, Chenango, Herkimer & Oneida counties.
But there still thousands of heavily D mail ballots left to count in Broome, Chenango, Herkimer & Oneida counties.
In 2018, Brindisi (D) beat Tenney (R) 51%-49% district-wide. Right now, Brindisi is already ahead of his '18 margin in Broome - which still has more heavily D mail ballots to count - as well as Tioga, which might be nearly done counting.
For a Republican to lose a Trump +15 district in this kind of polarized political environment, you have to be a truly damaged, radioactive and repellent candidate. Claudia Tenney might just have fit that bill. #NY22
To be clear, @NY22 is far from over. Although I might rather be Brindisi (D), it's going to be extremely close and is going to come down to remaining absentees from Oneida, Broome, Madison, Chenango and Herkimer plus provisionals.
And we're not going to know for a while.
And we're not going to know for a while.
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