Thread by @ASPphysician

What is #COVIDzero? What is elimination? What is strategy? A primer

1. #COVIDzero is a slogan. It is aspirational. It sets a high bar for a country that has failed to set a bar. @JustinTrudeau yesterday said that it doesn't make sense to have a unifying mssg. I beg to differ.

2. Elimination, in the proper sense of the term, means reducing incidence of infection or disease to zero in a geographical region for a period of time, with continued efforts.

Nobody seriously believes you can keep the cases of COVID at zero for any sustained period of time.

No country on the planet has been able to eliminate COVID, and this includes the best performing countries: New Zealand, Vietnam, China, Australia, South Korea, etc. They all have cases.

But they have an elimination strategy and mindset.

3. A strategy is a plan to achieve a goal. I am a basketball coach, and I like to believe I devise winning strategies. That doesn't mean we win every time, but I try to put my team in the best possible position to win.

An elimination strategy is a plan to eliminate.

4. Every winning country battling COVID has a #COVIDzero elimination strategy and mindset. None are eliminating it sans vaccine. But they're acting like they are, w/ economies returning, life normalizing, and few deaths. 🇨🇦/Canadians can achieve this if we set our mind to it.

Every losing country lacks a #COVIDzero strategy and mindset. No country attempting #COVIDzero is failing. None. All of Europe - Failing. S America & Central America - Failing. US - Failing. Asia-Pacific countries not following (e.g. India, Sri Lanka, Philippines) - Failing

5. What does it take? Well, it starts at the top. We need a PM who will lead with a unifying message. If he has one better and more accurate than #COVIDzero, great! Let's use it. #COVIDlow doesn't inspire, nor does #COVIDbetter. Once he uses it, the Premiers can start too.

6. Next is to figure out how to get there. Well, we already know how to do that, we just haven't insisted on it, because we haven't had a #COVIDzero mindset:

World class Test-Trace-Isolate
Meaningfully supporting everyone who will be adversely affected in the pursuit of zero

Doing everything to prevent importing cases into, and movement of cases within the country
Crystal clear, science-based public health communication
Societal cohesion
Leadership

Aggressive public health measures.

This one is the most challenging, but with a unified voice and a clear vision, we can do this. Most places, save Atlantic Canada, are facing serious restrictions on their behaviour out of necessity. This affects everyone.

We need to reduce the number of daily cases. The wiser and more aggressively we act—and the more compliant the public—the faster the numbers fall. Daily cases can halve up to every 7 days, but it is often closer to 14. That is 5-8 halving cycles for most regions of the country

If you are really aggressive, you can get close to zero by about 8-10 weeks in worst-hit areas, but 12-14 weeks is more realistic for most. If you have few cases in a region, it may be only a few weeks only. But once you get there, there is ALMOST no looking back w/ #COVIDzero

7. Why bother? It sounds awful, 3-4 months! Yes, except, we have 1-2 months of this regardless, and then we are almost certainly going to have a 3rd wave in February-April. So we do this now, to get us to February and no third wave. I don't want schools closed after March break

In fact, I don't want schools closed d/t COVID ever again. How does that happen? #COVIDzero.

Unanimous opinions says keeping cases low in community will keep schools, long-term care, hospitals, group homes, shelters, workplaces, and everyone else safe.

8. It is obviously more complicated than this. It takes more than a slogan or strategy to win a championship but #WeTheNorth . Let's stop losing with COVID and win. For our kids, parents, and neigbours. We need all hands in, working towards the same goal for this. #COVIDzero

Wanna learn more?
Three useful resources (for me) are
endcoronavirus.org tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-th…
johnsnowmemo.com

You will learn that the only thing that is substantially different is a slogan and hashtag. Live with it, or we people will continue to die without it.