Thread by @JMilesColeman

Tonight on #ElectionTwitter, since NC may re-re-redistrict it's Cong. districts, we're gonna be looking back at the Congressional map that was in place from 2002 to 2010. #ncpol #ncga

Why this map? 1) It was drawn by Dems, and represents something of a best-case for them and 2) I've always liked this map, and usually end up breaking statewide races down under its lines, anyway. #ncpol #ncga

The 2001 Congressional map held up pretty well for Democrats. For example, they went into the red wave of 2010 holding 8 of 13 seats. They lost the House popular vote by 9% in NC, but of their seats, only #NC02 flipped R, and only barely. #ncpol

Under the old Dem-drawn map, HRC would have carried 5/13 seats while losing by 4%. Gov. Roy Cooper, who narrowly won, would have added #NC02 to HRC's map. He ran most over her in the old #NC11, rep'd by Blue Dog Heather Shuler. #ncpol

Now, here's Cooper 2016 vs Obama 2008; both narrow Dem wins. They each carried the same 6/13 CDs. Cooper did better than Obama following I-85 while slumping in rural areas. Asheville made #NC11 slightly more pro-Cooper. #ncpol #ncga

Basically, this was what I found a while ago at the precinct level, too. Democratic strength in NC is becoming more concentrated in the urban areas - generally does not bode well for redistricting. #ncpol #ncga