Thread by @pmdfoster

This. “The problem is fish” is a U.K. ‘line to take’ being briefed relentlessly to underplay the LPF issue as not worth falling out over - and make EU look unreasonable for not moving (if they don’t) as we enter engame. For the EU “the problem is LPF”, even if fish is also hard.

https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1332448771419099136

If you want a version, here’s a para from @ShippersUnbound piece this AM “Brussels puts pressure on Barnier for a Brexit deal” /2

thetimes.co.uk/article/europe…

This is not to say that fishing is easy or politically unimportant (the 6-12 mile zone where boats are too small to be compensated has been a key area of contention for French and Belgians)...but one internal EU estimate showed = 150 Belgian boats catching €5m of fish a year!/3

Fish can/will still weigh heavily on the talks - because there will have to be a balance. And if the U.K. has to give a lot on LPF/Trade then a less than expected ‘win’ on fish becomes a big problem. This week U.K. dismissed EU opening offer as “derisory” /4

EU fishing states will have to accept more losses, probably, but will also have to balance intra-EU issues - so other fish states like Ireland, Spain say, much less bothered on 6-12m zone than France but have less room on quotas in 12-200m/5

One obvious problem is that neither sides politicians have prepared either of their domestic constituencies for necessary concessions. Am told U.K. industry submissions/demands to U.K. side are v tough - notwithstanding so much of te catch is sold in EU market. /6

And of course the other side of U.K. argument “it’s all about sovereignty” (as regards LPF) is still there. Which is why, per U.K. official to @ShippersUnbound a “no deal” is underpriced. /7

If you want a long version of why - and what might fix/fudge the LPF/sovereignty divide here’s thread from Friday picking over issues as they’ve been explained to me. ENDS

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1332378223561289737