Thread by @pmdfoster

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As #brexit talks drift towards the rocks, trade groups say plans for Irish Sea trade border after Brexit are ‘in a mess’ via, my latest via @FT ...this is an issue coming deal or no deal. Stay with me 1/
on.ft.com/2JTaaDo

@FT So to recap, under Northern Ireland protocol negotiated in the Withdrawal Agreement all goods going from Great Britain to NI must confirm with EU customs code. To avoid new border in Ireland, that means trade border in Irish Sea - new paperwork, new systems. Operational Jan 1/2

@FT The problem is that because the FTA negotiations are stuck, the negotiations in the Joint Committee on how to implement the Protoocl (and @michaelgove is with @MarosSefcovic talking today) haven't yet born fruit. That means a LOT of uncertainty. /3

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic How much uncertainty? Well, as @MichaelAodhan tells me, a lot. Research by the Northern Ireland Business Brexit Working Group (NIBBWG) found only 20% of members were ready. And its not their fault: need info on tarifs, computer systems etc. And are not getting answers /3

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan Now. The Government has earmarked £200m for the Trade Support Service run by Fujitsu and the Customs Clearance Consortium with @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 to help business process new paperwork...BUT even it cannot answer lots of Qs, and won't help with animal/SPS issues. /4

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 So. Take a look a this presentation by @ShankerASingham and TSS to @ManufacturingNI members last week....as M'fing NI boss Stephen Kelly tells me, his members just aren't clear what they need to do. This isn't necessarily anyone's fault... /5

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI The problem is a lack of information because of constraints noted above...and which biz groups have been screaming at the government about. Take this letter from the NI Meat Exporters Association last week...which says they can't ready - deal or no deal. /6

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI Because this is about real-world processes. Companies registering with the TSS, creating cleanses 'master data' sets and then interfacing with the govts CDS customs systems - which they have to do via TSS because it seems software interfaces aren't ready for others /7

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI If you look at the timelines on this NIMEA letter you can see how constrained the situation is - and why there is going to have to be some flexibility on both sides come January 1. Some form of phasing in or implementation period /8

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI The government has indicated it will take a "light touch" approach to the new enforcements...but for hauliers and shippers a 'nod and a wink' approach is a very difficult way to do business. Do you just take your chances at the border? /9

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI Because as @RHARichardB explains, supply chains work (particularly in food/supermarkets) on the basis that you DO catch that boat, because if you don't your perishable goods aren't going to be on the supermarket shelves on time. /10

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB Hauliers I'm talking to are shocked by the level of detail they are being asked for as part of the TSS service (basically everything about a customs code) which a lot are not equipped to provide.

At the same time Defra is unable to answer basic questions..../11

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB So for example "groupage". Simply. I go pick up a load of lamb, beef and chicken from three distro point. I get an export health cert for the lamb. Arrive at second stop. Then seal is 'broken', so how do I certify the lamb again - make sure it wasn't tampered with etc. /12

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB And then the same process with the chicken...

Leaving aside how chicken currently in cold storage will get a health certificate which it will need after Jan 1 if going to NI...but didn't when it was delivered?

It can be make to work, but its complex and needs time /13

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB The gov is trying best to negotiation a Retail Movement System simplification that will push checks to warehouse and create, for example a month-long validity 'conformity certificate' for meat products...but that wont help wholesalers or anyone shipping inputs/14

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB The point is that even as we do get clarity of which goods are 'at risk' of going into EU single market, business will need time to adjust.

Negotiatiors on both sides say a one-year 'implementation' period won't happen...but there will need to be flexibility /15

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB The TSS - which is offering inflated customs intermediary salaries of £40k+, compared to £25k - is also going to be put to the test in the coming months as it tries to process the movements of operators who are highly inexperienced in doing all this /16

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB And whatever happens with the deal, BOTH sides have a responsibility to the Good Friday Agreement and Northern Ireland to make this work in a way that doesn't make NI consumers & businesses pay too high a price for an "English" #Brexit - which is how some will present it /17

@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB There is a LOT of frustration and finger-waving going on out there at the moment (totally understandably) but there is a huge mutual interest - for the UK's Union and the EU's Union, which of course includes Ireland, to get this right. ENDS