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18 Dec, 5 tweets, 3 min read
How do you know #bitcoin volumes are fake?

$AAPL has a market cap of 2,100 bn (2.1 trn)
$BTC has a market cap of 425 bn (0.4trn)

Yesterday, Apple trading volume on regulated exchanges was $10bn.

Bitcoin, allegedly, traded $66bn (CMC) or $59bn (Gecko).

Does not compute.
Messari has a page where they show „Real“ #bitcoin Volume as $10bn, which is still high given the above but plausible.
So:

You have reported volume of somewhere between 59 and 66 billion $ as well as a crypto-native source saying only 10bn is real.

That means, about 85% of #bitcoin volume is fake and more than likely the work of #tether and wash trading.
If you‘ve followed me you know I am Bullish $BTC (not advice), but if you are in #crypto you have to acknowledge the time bomb that is #tether and be aware of its risks. Closing your eyes and pretending its not there isn‘t going to be good for your financial health.
FWIW I do think that it is impossible to overlook that #bitcoin‘s investor base is institutionalizing. So the above does not mean the current trend is not driven by real demand, but it does mean that manipulation is still rampant in #crypto. Just something to be aware of.

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More from @dkcrypto13

24 Nov
The question is not whether #bitcoin hits its ATH with the backdrop of #tether AND the Fed printing and stocks very strong.

The questions is whether Tether will then be content and cease their manipulations for a while or blast right on. $BTC $USDT.

Not advice...
...Note that I have been Bullish #crypto and #bitcoin personally since an end of July article, so I am not saying the entire rally was a #tether manipulation. Not at all.

However, we have to be honest: the last week or so tether and their cartel prevented any drop from...
...becoming more pronounced and protected $BTC from falling. Leveraged financing rates mean you lose 75% of your position over a year from sitting in longs if #bitcoin does not go up. That isn‘t normal, that‘s beyond euphoric and without #tether actions it will correct...
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov
Thoughts on #markets into year end and beyond, we know:
- Fed is printing
- Vaccine is working
- Money market fund holdings still at record highs (ie money that does not earn a thing and watches in agony as markets climb)
- Biden returns calm to politics

#bitcoin #SP500 #NASDAQ
So what is needed for markets to fall?

You’d need one of the above factors to change.

The Fed said many times they will not step off the gas till unemployment is much, much lower so thats not an immediate concern.

The vaccine could see safety issues or uptake could be slow...
... but it won’t change the fact that the virus is beaten by a combination of vaccine & rapid at home testing, latest end of 2021.

Money market fund holdings likely return to riskier assets, but there is a lot of fuel left before tank is empty.

That leaves us with the Donald...
Read 6 tweets
14 Nov
In all seriousness though, let me attempt to explain the #tether sends to #binance.

Everybody knows that $USDT is used to paint the #bitcoin price whichever way the tether cartel members would like it, mostly upwards. There is no single Dollar in actual money coming into...
... tether. Definitely not since liquid stable coin alternatives with full KYC & AML compliance as well as regular audits have become widely available. And I am, as you can see above, in the camp of those who believe the entire #tether system is a scam. However...
... when #binance receives $USDT, the simple fact is that the exchange has long comingled usdt, other stable coins and actual usd. So when the trade volume on binance goes up, they may choose (depending on said comingling) to settle in usdt or posting in usdt, so...
Read 7 tweets
7 Nov
Okay, so I have seen it propagated on #crypto twitter too often now to ignore it. So let me clearly explain:

Today’s drop in #bitcoin price had nothing whatsoever to do with Biden being projected to win the US election. Markets do not work that way. Here is what happened:
$BTC had run up by 30% in 3 weeks, in the process taking out more or less every identifiable chart resistance on the road to its ATH. People doubted this move so much that CME shorts reached record levels and leverage funding was consistently paying longs and charging shorts,...
... fueling the move further and further. This weekend, finally, the situation turned and financing went to levels that you can easily connect with “moderate euphoria” historically. That is typically when #bitcoin experiences a larger short-term drop....
Read 9 tweets
1 Nov
We’re still at resistance and still overbought. But futures are also not in contango and funding rates are negative. Everything absolutely could be very different this time, but #bitcoin usually dives when funding is strongly positive and futures deep in contango...
...What’s more is after almost highest monthly close ever, should check if we are in another tulip run. Bubbles end in euphoria. Euphoria implies massively leveraged long speculation. That is not the case in $BTC. At all. Looks like healthy skepticism, climbing wall of worries...
...So unless (BIG if) #tether has simply washtraded & spoofed #bitcoin up without anyone participating in the run (entirely possible though seems unlikely given some larger names that bought exposure last three months), this does not look like the end of a run at all. Not advice.
Read 4 tweets
29 Dec 19
Follows & Unfollows - #FF & #UFF 2020

Isn’t Friday, but if you are in #crypto, want a balanced,well-informed view & are looking for accounts to follow,I suggest both a list of follows & mutes to avoid the cult.Opinion only! My suggestions:

#bitcoin $BTC #CT $crypto #blockchain
The Follows:

#CT accounts I genuinely respect or provide value mixed with some I do not agree with at all that are key to #bitcoin. Some will still spam you with typical propaganda from time to time, but at least they eat their own medicine and are undeniably core to $BTC
Read 8 tweets

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