#stockmarket WE update - Holiday short version. $SPY shows 2 broken rising wedges but minimal damage. Nasty pierce of the 20day & support last wk but strong close & no follow thru. Resiliency matters & for now bulls in control. Currently 3 distribution days in Dec...
#stockmarket A close below $364ish would shake things up a bit I suspect but elusive at this point. $SPY weekly looks quite healthy to me....
#stockmarket #SPX recent Demark 13 seq sell did mark the recent swing high, now on day 3 of buy set up. Remember, 13's can signal pot'l trend change or sometimes just stall the trend - for now its stalled. Do we continue lower to complete the 9 buy or price flip back up & resume?
#stockmarket #NASDAQ will likely post a new 9 sell tomorrow w/ pot'l 13 combo sell looming (current 11 count) but would require strength. Propulsion up tgts still active for #SPX & #Nasdaq....
#StockMarket $RTY Russell has been chewing through Demark signals as of late, now above recent cluster of 13's after recycling the prior ones, & new 9 sell likely tmrw on the daily. Weekly 13's still active. Very steep rising wedge & very OB. retracement here likely in the NT....
#stockmarket $RTY ADX also quite elevated for the Russel and typically where trends start to stall or reverse. Factor exposure in this part of the cycle argues for overweighting small caps but that doesnt mean cant see a painful reversion....
#stockmarket Smart Money Index finally starting to show signs of life and very important to continue to improve if the rally is going to keep defying the skeptics IMO....
#stockmarket Arms Index or TRIN (measures intensity of downside volume) on Thursday was a bit baffling & recorded a relatively high number despite higher indexes. Could be a warning or could be nothing given it might just be end of the yr rebalance related...
#stockmarket Semis have been grossly underperforming Software as of late. Maybe that reverses into CES in Jan. Demark overlay of $SMH vs $IGV shows a new 9 buy recorded last wk. Track record w/ 9 signals marking swings is outstanding. time to buy semis? ....
#stockmarket Semi 4-pack i'll be watching next wk: $TSM pennant break over B/O zone. $MU Desc Triangle @ 20day support. $AMD falling wedge @ B/O zone. $MCHP falling wedge @ B/O zone & could record Demark 9 buy on Tues...
#stockmarket concl: As I mentioned last WE, I don't expect a bigger contraction until Jan. I think this wk will likely remain rangebound but certainly bulls have the edge w/ end of yr seasonality. I'll likely be trading less & spending more time w/ my family. Happy Holidays!
* $AMD chart

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More from @coiledspringcap

20 Dec
#stockmarket WE update. Last WE I mentioned I was cautiously optimistic but could see some weakness in 2H of the wk as Demark could post a Seq 13 sell on the #SPX. Friday was weak but somewhat contained. I also mentioned that Propulsion up was still active w/ 3907 tgt....
#stockmarket Momentum tgts signify trend continuation but also could represent exhaustion points. The Russell also w/ new Demark 13 sells on the weekly chart to go w/ a new round of daily sell signals....
#stockmarket #NASDAQ could post a new combo 13 sell this wk (pot'l weds) & a seq 13 sell next wk (pot'l Tues), but much like the #SPX, has a propulsion up tgt in play of 13240....
Read 16 tweets
13 Dec
#stockmarket WE update. Last wk I mentioned to be careful adding new money to the mkt, which was the correct call as we did see weakness. I mentioned watching the $DXY for signals as it did move off the lows. But 20day save on Fri above key lvls for #SPX is bullish for now....
#stockmarket As I've mentioned in previous updates, $ spikes are equity bearish & last wk we did see #DXY move off the lows. Whether this a minor bounce or bigger countertrend move is yet TBD. $DXY bounce from OS RSI now above 14day SMA & day 3 of price flip; needs to be watched.
#stockmarket I also discussed in last WE update that key global mkts were also flashing Demark exhaustion signals & something that could hurt US stock performance - see 5 day performance of major indices....
Read 15 tweets
6 Dec
#stockmarket WE update. crazy bullish euphoria is all that comes to mind. But that doesn't mean it has to end. I think we are stretched which can be resolved by time or price. >3645 tough to be overly bearish, but putting new money to work up here seems foolish....
#stockmarket #SPX correlation to USD has been strong & previous spikes this yr have seen equity dislocation. This is the most important thing to watch IMO given how lopsided this trade has become. Demark has a 13 Seq/Combo & 9 buy in place/ w/ prop down tgt of 90.15 for $DXY...
#stockmarket the $DXY has closed below the lower bound 4x since the GFC ('08 it happened many times, Jan '18, this yr in July/Aug, Nov/Dec). As illustrated this usu is short lived. why would it be different this time? ...
Read 23 tweets
22 Nov
#stockmarket Last WE update I discussed dialing back on equities & despite + vaccine news the #SPX was down .77% for the wk. Risk still remains to the downside IMO, although can't be too bearish until we break the ranges. $SPY flag or lower high? ...
#stockmarket marked white circles (above) are showing heavy volume distribution days since Sept is not bullish. But for now the supply is getting absorbed. The Demark chart shows Day 2 of a price flip down following the completed 9-13-9 sell, and closed <5day EMA....
#stockmarket On the flip side, if $SPY can take out this flag to the upside, Demark propulsion up is active w/ a $390 tgt. If that happens, I would first measure any move w/ trend factor projections (367.44, 376.40, 385,37 - see red boxes)...
Read 16 tweets
15 Nov
#StockMarket WE update. crazy wk. Caught many offsides who were overloaded in tech. I suspect mkt leadership has shifted although it won't be linear. I am growing cautious & increasing hedges. As posted re #SPX last wk, Demark rare 9-13-9 sell printed w/ slo sto neg divergence...
#StockMarket #SPX here is another rarity & one for the bears, Demark 9-13-9 sell is also printing on the yearly chart, which has taken 40+ years to form. Not sure how to trade this but interesting nonetheless...
#stockmarket equally fascinating is that the #nasdaq is doing the same w/ a Demark 9-13-9 sell on the yearly. This in combination w/ the Demark combo & seq 13 sell on the weekly (combo printed last wk). Last time combo 13 sell printed here was the wk of Feb 20th. yikes!..
Read 21 tweets
9 Nov
#stockmarket WE update. My call last WE to buy in the 2H of the wk missed by 2 days. +7% wk & futures up again seems to be getting overheated. Clearly we have a break up of this DTL on #SPX futures, & now on Day 5 of 9 Demark sell set up. Trendfactor up lvls: 1x=3583, 1.5x=3673..
#stockmarket #SPX $SPY also will post Day 5 of 9 sell set up, which would come on Friday if the count is satisfied. Demark Trrendfactor up lvls to be mindful of: 1x up = 354.90, 1.5x=358.47
#stockmarket I posted this chart of the Smart Money Index last wk, as a reason to be concerned as it signaled the Oct peak. Still hovering near the lows but cluster of Demark 13 buys w/ 9 buy set up as well. Hopefully this turns up soon....
Read 14 tweets

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