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Laurie Garrett Profile picture
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4 Jan, 6 tweets, 5 min read
Talk in the UK (& Germany & Denmark) of using just 1 #COVID19 #vaccine dose/person for now, possibly providing boosters months later, is distressing.
A quick thread follows.
1.) @Pfizer has been clear as a bell: 1 dose = 52% protection, 2 doses = 95%
MORE
bmj.com/content/371/bm…
2/ Compare those 52% vs 95% numbers to #measles. After Dose 1 a child is 69% protected against measles, but that jumps to 91% w/2nd dose. Given measles is ultra-contagious (Ro up to 18!) anything <90% is awful.
MORE
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… and
who.int/immunization/n….
3/ In contrast, #hepatitisB vaccine offers up to 93% protection w/1 dose & 97.8% w/2 doses. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
The virus is not very contagious (Ro<1), and not airborne, so a single dose of vaccination may be adequate for people who aren't sexually active.
MORE
4/ #COVID19 is clearly an airborne contagion, between measles I hepatitis B. So what is the "wisdom" of the UK plan to give only the first @pfizer vaccine jab, besides managing to get it into the arms of more Brits?
MORE
wsj.com/articles/u-k-d…
5/ @pfizer is unhappy w/UK because its study "was designed to eval safety & efficacy following a 2-dose schedule, separated by 21 dys. Safety & efficacy has not been eval'ed on different dosing scheds." Plus, no one knows response duration after 1 dose.
fool.com/investing/2020…
6/ And then there's the question of UNDER-immunization and potential selection of vaccine-escape mutants. I'll let you mull that one yourselves.
Hint: look at #pertussis aka whooping cough ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

Laurie Garrett Profile picture
4 Jan
Loyola law professor Edward Foley may have unwittingly laid out in 2019 the scenario for retaining power that the #Trump @WhiteHouse and #GOP are now following. In this law journal scenario, Jan 4-20 actions are critical, leading to the Supreme Court.

lawecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewconten…
If you substitute "Georgia" for every reference to "Pennsylvania" you see the #Trump power playbook. Pg 325: the “President of the Senate” [Pence] has the exclusive constitutional authority to determine which “certificates” to “open” & thus which electoral votes “to be counted.”
Foley conts:
"what if the Senate and House disagree? ...the Pelosi-led House votes to accept the electoral votes, while the McConnell-led Senate votes to accept the electoral
votes for Trump? Here is where the statutory morass of 3 U.S.C. § 15 becomes an interpretative quagmire"
Read 5 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
22 Dec 20
Detailed assessment of the new UK #SARSCoV2 variant by @WHO scientific team: who.int/csr/don/21-dec…
Key points in thread.
2/ The @WHO takes a global view:
"One of the mutations identified (N501Y) is altering an amino acid w/in the 6 key residues in the receptor binding domain...same mutation independently reported in several countries including South Africa & Australia...originated separately."
MORE
3/ This means that under selection pressure, as far apart as Cape Town, Sydney and London, #SARSCoV2 is forming mutations in the identical region of the spike protein that binds to human cells, and against which we make antibodies.
MORE
Read 10 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
21 Dec 20
Some panic is setting in around Europe regarding the new mutant strain of #SARSCoV2 that has emerged in the UK.
In this quick thread I'm going to review findings presented to UK govt on 12/18 from scientific advisors re variant dubbed VUI-202012/01.
MORE
nytimes.com/live/2020/12/2…
2/
 1.) It spreads very fast human-2-human: the growth rate of VUI-202012/01 is 71% higher than other #SARSCoV2 variants.
2.) The Ro (est number of ppl a given infected individual will pass virus to) is up to 0.93 higher, so it was 1.2 in UK, w/mutant it's >2.
MORE
3/
 3.) Based on how long it takes for fluorescent signals to show virus is reproducing, the mutant is 2Xs faster in human cells (decrease of ct value of around 2)
4.) And it makes about half a log more virus/cell infected (0.5 increase in median log10 inferred viral load)
MORE
Read 9 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
20 Dec 20
ATTN: After easing lockdowns amid Holidays, PM #BorisJohnson today put much of the UK on strict lockdown: no Xmas, no NYsEve. In a mere week the number of #COVID19 cases has soared 40% & govt is blaming a new mutant form of #SARSCoV2 ...
cnn.com/2020/12/19/uk/…
MORE
2/
 ...that govt scientists say is 70% more contagious than the types of #SARSCoV2 now spreading in the USA. Fear of the new mutant form of #COVID19 prompted the Dutch govt to ban flights from UK & across the EU similar measures are considered. independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
MORE
3/ Last spring a mutant form of #SARSCoV2 emerged, slamming Italy & then New York. It proved more contagious. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Now, the UK variant, first seen in Sept. in a #COVID19 patient in Kent, has spread across UK. gov.uk/government/new…
MORE
Read 10 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
24 Nov 20
Incredibly detailed contact-tracing anal of #COVID19 spread, early 2020, Hunan, China holds vital info on controlling the #pandemic :
- household contacts pose the highest risk of transmission, followed by extended family, social & community contacts;
MORE
science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
2/
 - Healthcare contacts have the lowest risk, suggesting that adequate protective measures were adopted by patients & healthcare staff in Hunan;
- risk of transmission in the household ^s during the lockdown period, likely due to physical confinement;
MORE
3/
 - transmission risk decreases for community & social contacts during lockdown, due to prudent behaviors such as mask wearing, hand washing & coughing/sneezing etiquette;
- longer exposures are riskier, w/one additional day of exposure ^ing the transmission risk by 10%.
MORE
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
16 Nov 20
On the heels of @pfizer #COVID19 #vaccine, @moderna_tx today announced its mRNA vax also works, but better -- 95% effective. And they say it is stable at normal freezer temperatures, unlike the Pfizer product.
investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…
2/
 Other diffs w/@pfizer vax -- @Moderna #COVID19 #vaccine was tested in >30K volunteers, a booster was required, and they were tested for #SARSCoV2 infection 14dys later (Pfizer was just 7 days).
They rpt more side effects.
MORE

investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…
3/
 The @moderna_tx press release states: "2% in frequency after the first dose included injection site pain (2.7%), & after the 2nd dose included fatigue (9.7%), myalgia (8.9%), arthralgia (5.2%), headache (4.5%), pain (4.1%) & erythema/redness at the injection site (2.0%)."
MORE
Read 10 tweets

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