Just got off a national security zoom mtg (Chatham House rules forbid saying who & where) -- very high level leaders of past mega events, reflecting on Wed #AssaultOnDemocracy at the Capitol.
Universal condemnation of intelligence failures. Some key comments follow.
“worse than 9/11” (said by someone who had a command role on 9/11 in NYC)
“complete intelligence failure”
“Police across America are overly fixated on groups on the Left, and need to see the Right”
“these people now have a martyr” (the woman who was shot) “expect to see her image everywhere”
“we are only at the beginning with these nuts”
“This isn’t about Trumpism. If you leave it at that you’re going to get blindsided”
“we need a 9/11 Commission on this to pin down everything that went wrong”
“the Capitol Police had to let people go – there are no holding areas, jail cells or security pens on the Hill – no place to put them”
“my biggest worry --- what were they planning to do with those?” (points at guy holding about plastic handcuff strips)
“this nut case used the American flag to disguise a lethal spear – when we see things like that in a crowd we should be on maximum police alert”
“Capitol Police chief ordered all personnel on site in soft gear. Intel should have mandated hard gear – and one police officer is dead because of that decision”
“none of this is over. This is all going to get much worse...
"...And if we have police officers that are buying into this stuff our forces are compromised”
"People are rightly saying this is a race issue -- proportions of response should not be greater or lesser, based on the complexion of the crowd."

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

4 Jan
Talk in the UK (& Germany & Denmark) of using just 1 #COVID19 #vaccine dose/person for now, possibly providing boosters months later, is distressing.
A quick thread follows.
1.) @Pfizer has been clear as a bell: 1 dose = 52% protection, 2 doses = 95%
2/ Compare those 52% vs 95% numbers to #measles. After Dose 1 a child is 69% protected against measles, but that jumps to 91% w/2nd dose. Given measles is ultra-contagious (Ro up to 18!) anything <90% is awful.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… and
3/ In contrast, #hepatitisB vaccine offers up to 93% protection w/1 dose & 97.8% w/2 doses. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
The virus is not very contagious (Ro<1), and not airborne, so a single dose of vaccination may be adequate for people who aren't sexually active.
Read 6 tweets
4 Jan
Loyola law professor Edward Foley may have unwittingly laid out in 2019 the scenario for retaining power that the #Trump @WhiteHouse and #GOP are now following. In this law journal scenario, Jan 4-20 actions are critical, leading to the Supreme Court.

If you substitute "Georgia" for every reference to "Pennsylvania" you see the #Trump power playbook. Pg 325: the “President of the Senate” [Pence] has the exclusive constitutional authority to determine which “certificates” to “open” & thus which electoral votes “to be counted.”
Foley conts:
"what if the Senate and House disagree? ...the Pelosi-led House votes to accept the electoral votes, while the McConnell-led Senate votes to accept the electoral
votes for Trump? Here is where the statutory morass of 3 U.S.C. § 15 becomes an interpretative quagmire"
Read 5 tweets
22 Dec 20
Detailed assessment of the new UK #SARSCoV2 variant by @WHO scientific team: who.int/csr/don/21-dec…
Key points in thread.
2/ The @WHO takes a global view:
"One of the mutations identified (N501Y) is altering an amino acid w/in the 6 key residues in the receptor binding domain...same mutation independently reported in several countries including South Africa & Australia...originated separately."
3/ This means that under selection pressure, as far apart as Cape Town, Sydney and London, #SARSCoV2 is forming mutations in the identical region of the spike protein that binds to human cells, and against which we make antibodies.
Read 10 tweets
21 Dec 20
Some panic is setting in around Europe regarding the new mutant strain of #SARSCoV2 that has emerged in the UK.
In this quick thread I'm going to review findings presented to UK govt on 12/18 from scientific advisors re variant dubbed VUI-202012/01.
1.) It spreads very fast human-2-human: the growth rate of VUI-202012/01 is 71% higher than other #SARSCoV2 variants.
2.) The Ro (est number of ppl a given infected individual will pass virus to) is up to 0.93 higher, so it was 1.2 in UK, w/mutant it's >2.
3.) Based on how long it takes for fluorescent signals to show virus is reproducing, the mutant is 2Xs faster in human cells (decrease of ct value of around 2)
4.) And it makes about half a log more virus/cell infected (0.5 increase in median log10 inferred viral load)
Read 9 tweets
20 Dec 20
ATTN: After easing lockdowns amid Holidays, PM #BorisJohnson today put much of the UK on strict lockdown: no Xmas, no NYsEve. In a mere week the number of #COVID19 cases has soared 40% & govt is blaming a new mutant form of #SARSCoV2 ...
...that govt scientists say is 70% more contagious than the types of #SARSCoV2 now spreading in the USA. Fear of the new mutant form of #COVID19 prompted the Dutch govt to ban flights from UK & across the EU similar measures are considered. independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
3/ Last spring a mutant form of #SARSCoV2 emerged, slamming Italy & then New York. It proved more contagious. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Now, the UK variant, first seen in Sept. in a #COVID19 patient in Kent, has spread across UK. gov.uk/government/new…
Read 10 tweets

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