While all eyes are on the fallout of the Jan 6 #insurrection the #SARSCoV2 virus is spreading across America at breakneck speed. During the time the entire @WhiteHouse has been focused on false claims that #Trump won -- since Nov 3 -- the US caseload has more than 2X'ed.
On Election Day Nov. 3, US cumulative #COVID19 cases was 9.6 million. Today it's 22.1 M -- that's an ^ of 12.5 million cases.
And American deaths?
Election Day total = 231,600
Jan 9 = 373,500
So, 141,900 Americans have died while @WhiteHouse focused on "stolen election"
Given a 36% undercount in deaths in the US, due to delays in reporting + failure to test/diagnose, real #COVID19 toll today is more than a half million.
Since Jan 1st we've added 3700-4K deaths/day and 270K-300K cases/day. If we stay this course, by Valentines Day...
The US tolls will see 9.2 million more cases, topping 32 M cumulatively.
And (horrors) another 136,000 officially tabulated deaths, or 509K cumulative.
Using the 36% undercount est., deaths cld be 690,000.
NOW, what about the UK variant mutant form of #SARSCoV2 ?
In UK + Ireland the mutant form of #SARSCoV2 has caused an astronomical surge in new cases, and is up to 80% more contagious.
55 separate indivs. in USA, w/no UK travel histories, have shown they carry that strain. We only genomically screen 0.3% of viral samps. in US.
It is prudent to ASSUME the mutant is widespread in USA & act accordingly. Don't wait for more "proof." And unless we go on lockdown, the dreadful forecast of 1 million #COVID19 American deaths by May 1 is reasonable. #Vaccines will mitigate IF >1/2 of the nation...
Is fully immunized before April. But the current pace of rollout will see only 30% of Americans #COVID19 vaccinated by June 1st.
Every tactic to stop this epidemic must be done FAR more aggressively, properly and faster. We are running out of time.

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

8 Jan
Just got off a national security zoom mtg (Chatham House rules forbid saying who & where) -- very high level leaders of past mega events, reflecting on Wed #AssaultOnDemocracy at the Capitol.
Universal condemnation of intelligence failures. Some key comments follow.
“worse than 9/11” (said by someone who had a command role on 9/11 in NYC)
“complete intelligence failure”
“Police across America are overly fixated on groups on the Left, and need to see the Right”
“these people now have a martyr” (the woman who was shot) “expect to see her image everywhere”
“we are only at the beginning with these nuts”
“This isn’t about Trumpism. If you leave it at that you’re going to get blindsided”
Read 7 tweets
4 Jan
Talk in the UK (& Germany & Denmark) of using just 1 #COVID19 #vaccine dose/person for now, possibly providing boosters months later, is distressing.
A quick thread follows.
1.) @Pfizer has been clear as a bell: 1 dose = 52% protection, 2 doses = 95%
2/ Compare those 52% vs 95% numbers to #measles. After Dose 1 a child is 69% protected against measles, but that jumps to 91% w/2nd dose. Given measles is ultra-contagious (Ro up to 18!) anything <90% is awful.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… and
3/ In contrast, #hepatitisB vaccine offers up to 93% protection w/1 dose & 97.8% w/2 doses. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
The virus is not very contagious (Ro<1), and not airborne, so a single dose of vaccination may be adequate for people who aren't sexually active.
Read 6 tweets
4 Jan
Loyola law professor Edward Foley may have unwittingly laid out in 2019 the scenario for retaining power that the #Trump @WhiteHouse and #GOP are now following. In this law journal scenario, Jan 4-20 actions are critical, leading to the Supreme Court.

If you substitute "Georgia" for every reference to "Pennsylvania" you see the #Trump power playbook. Pg 325: the “President of the Senate” [Pence] has the exclusive constitutional authority to determine which “certificates” to “open” & thus which electoral votes “to be counted.”
Foley conts:
"what if the Senate and House disagree? ...the Pelosi-led House votes to accept the electoral votes, while the McConnell-led Senate votes to accept the electoral
votes for Trump? Here is where the statutory morass of 3 U.S.C. § 15 becomes an interpretative quagmire"
Read 5 tweets
22 Dec 20
Detailed assessment of the new UK #SARSCoV2 variant by @WHO scientific team: who.int/csr/don/21-dec…
Key points in thread.
2/ The @WHO takes a global view:
"One of the mutations identified (N501Y) is altering an amino acid w/in the 6 key residues in the receptor binding domain...same mutation independently reported in several countries including South Africa & Australia...originated separately."
3/ This means that under selection pressure, as far apart as Cape Town, Sydney and London, #SARSCoV2 is forming mutations in the identical region of the spike protein that binds to human cells, and against which we make antibodies.
Read 10 tweets
21 Dec 20
Some panic is setting in around Europe regarding the new mutant strain of #SARSCoV2 that has emerged in the UK.
In this quick thread I'm going to review findings presented to UK govt on 12/18 from scientific advisors re variant dubbed VUI-202012/01.
1.) It spreads very fast human-2-human: the growth rate of VUI-202012/01 is 71% higher than other #SARSCoV2 variants.
2.) The Ro (est number of ppl a given infected individual will pass virus to) is up to 0.93 higher, so it was 1.2 in UK, w/mutant it's >2.
3.) Based on how long it takes for fluorescent signals to show virus is reproducing, the mutant is 2Xs faster in human cells (decrease of ct value of around 2)
4.) And it makes about half a log more virus/cell infected (0.5 increase in median log10 inferred viral load)
Read 9 tweets

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