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11 Jan, 3 tweets, 2 min read
People still using leveraged positions to bet on the turn around in #bitcoin price.

Earlier during this bull market it was often Spot that led the charge...
.. and it was frequently a good mix of leverage and spot pushing higher. Since yesterday, it has been a case of no spot demand and leveraged contracts continuously trading $100 above spot price. At the same time, $BTC price in $USDT is at a premium to real USD, meaning...
...#tether would be risking the peg if they went full #brrrr here. I could be wrong, but I think this either needs $USDT bitcoin premium to go negative or for leverage to fully re set (can be achieved through large new spot orders too) in order to really turn around.

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More from @dkcrypto13

DK Profile picture
11 Jan
So... #bitcoin up $800 in seconds after this. #tether doesn‘t move price, right?... but if this isn‘t the last print it sure marked the bottom nicely. Go figure Image
We‘re going to need a lot more though...
Simultaneously people aren‘t so high on leverage anymore it seems and #tether premium coming into printable range again 💪🏻

Now we just need to be sure Paolo won‘t let us down and send lot‘s moar! Image
Read 4 tweets
DK Profile picture
10 Jan
More on #tether. Just listened to the podcast with Paolo and Stuart done by Peter McCormack. I thought it was informative, but there were significant issues. I will first summarize the relevant part of Q&A (and paraphrase), then provide my interpretation.

1/ Are you shareholders in Deltec bank? A: They do not disclose investments.

2/ What is your KYC process? A: Stuart clearly read off a statement prepared by their lawyers.
3/ Why can $USDT be issued on weekends? A: Because they already have the funds but this is when the customers require/want them or receive them.
Read 14 tweets
DK Profile picture
7 Jan
#bitcoin just re-set leverage & killed the bitmex and bybit premium. Will be interesting if reaction is same as tomes before...
Help is on the way 💪🏻
LMAO - SNED now or later?
Read 4 tweets
DK Profile picture
7 Jan
Okay. So in the middle of #bitcoin $BTC dalalilama to $40k and beyond, while we are all (including me) exceedingly happy... Humor me and think about #tether for a moment. Let's do it together:
We know that there are "scientific" papers out there that allege that $USDT prints drove $BTC price in 2016/17 and we also know those have been disputed in some ways by other smart people. I have read those disputes and I can see their point too. We also know that...
... @lawmaster, a guy that many people would say is highly trustworthy in this trustless industry (myself included) has "testified" that he has spoken to more than 10 (I think) people who have successfully redeemend money from #tether. We have also seen irregular balance...
Read 16 tweets
DK Profile picture
3 Jan
The #Crypto Quality Arb Portfolio - Experiment for 2021

I set up an account with 11x leverage, invested in 14 Longs I consider to be higher quality vs 11 Shorts I do not consider to be such quality

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT. IT IS NOT ADVICE.

#altcoins #bitcoin #ftx #qualityarb
The investable universe is PERP futures listed on FTX and it goes without saying that it is only crypto (ie I will ignore any stock futures) and only altcoins

The experiment is set up as a classic 120% Long, 100% short book (ie it has a theoretical market exposure of just 20%).
It is meant to be a stable experiment and I will update the positions (and re-size them) once a month. I expect very little movement in individual names. I want to see if a "classic" strategy where investors pick higher quality to go long and lower to go short works in #crypto.
Read 11 tweets
DK Profile picture
2 Jan
Basically going to bed now so I can’t make this a long thread, but re #bitcoin $BTC price here (32k):

- Funding rates are apesh1t crazy
- Futures heavily contango
- #tether price > spotprice in real $ (implying harder for Paolo to keep pumping)
- Orderbooks quite empty
...
- Price action looks similar to a blow off top (short capitulation)
- Bubble roof target almost met (its 5% off the current ATH)
- all the action took place on holidays (lower volume)
...
In summary - this could very well have been the local top that leads to one of $BTC s patented 30% reversals. I still think $23-24k will be tested, but maybe $27.8k is enough. I watch funding rates mostly to see if we have kicked excess leverage or not. Invalidation: new ATH
Read 5 tweets

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