DK Profile picture
2 Jan, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Basically going to bed now so I can’t make this a long thread, but re #bitcoin $BTC price here (32k):

- Funding rates are apesh1t crazy
- Futures heavily contango
- #tether price > spotprice in real $ (implying harder for Paolo to keep pumping)
- Orderbooks quite empty
- Price action looks similar to a blow off top (short capitulation)
- Bubble roof target almost met (its 5% off the current ATH)
- all the action took place on holidays (lower volume)
In summary - this could very well have been the local top that leads to one of $BTC s patented 30% reversals. I still think $23-24k will be tested, but maybe $27.8k is enough. I watch funding rates mostly to see if we have kicked excess leverage or not. Invalidation: new ATH
Whether or not this becomes a local top, I don’t think it ends the bull market as central banks still print and only they will end it. That is UNLESS there is a big regulatory action vs #tether or a large exchange coming which would be brutal.
All this is not advice and it s also good timing as invalidation is only 4% away 🤷🏻‍♂️. A new $USDT send to #binance might do it.
Still thought I d share. If you want to understand better what I describe here, it’s all in this article:

#bitcoin $BTC #crypto

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More from @dkcrypto13

3 Jan
The #Crypto Quality Arb Portfolio - Experiment for 2021

I set up an account with 11x leverage, invested in 14 Longs I consider to be higher quality vs 11 Shorts I do not consider to be such quality


#altcoins #bitcoin #ftx #qualityarb Image
The investable universe is PERP futures listed on FTX and it goes without saying that it is only crypto (ie I will ignore any stock futures) and only altcoins

The experiment is set up as a classic 120% Long, 100% short book (ie it has a theoretical market exposure of just 20%).
It is meant to be a stable experiment and I will update the positions (and re-size them) once a month. I expect very little movement in individual names. I want to see if a "classic" strategy where investors pick higher quality to go long and lower to go short works in #crypto.
Read 7 tweets
29 Dec 20
1/ A #bitcoin ETF will be launched in 2021
2/ $BTC will keep rising in price till the Fed stops their current round of quantitative easing, but IF/when it stops, people will be surprised at how negative it will be for any kind of assets despite a roaring economy
3/ Security standards for #token become more aligned globally and raising money via token that have equity-like rights will become a generally accepted way to raise early capital for companies
4/ $ETH will mark a new ATH in price, but scalability will become more of an issue
5/ #Binance, #Bitfinex, #Tether or #Bitmex will not survive 2021
6/ $UNI will be investigated as a security - the outcome is extremely hard to predict, but volumes on #uniswap won't suffer
7/ #Ripple will be convicted in court for securities fraud
Read 6 tweets
27 Dec 20
Thoughts on #bitcoin price here in a thread

TL;DR: $BTC is caught between a tug of war of market manipulation by #tether, pushing price on low volume on one hand and undeniable fundamental asset price inflation driven by the Fed’s printing on the other.
1/ $BTC is up 22% in 5 days on ever falling, low volume in holiday trading. During this time it has defied every sensible signal. Leveraged funding is unsustainably high, futures are as far in contango as I can remember.
2/ #tether has printed $400m during the holidays, implying that either huge (and I mean HUGE) institutional investors have wired real Dollars over the period when they aren’t in the office or, as we all know it to be true: they are printing freely out of thin air.
Read 14 tweets
23 Dec 20
(Another) thread about $XRP, #Ripple & why what they did was so despicable. It's not about them getting a fee & walking free, nor about whether the token will go up or down in value. It's about people understanding what this organization did to them. #crypto #bitcoin #XRP
1 - #Ripple sold something to the public that the public could not get information about. There are regulations that ensure that investors can understand what is happening with their funds and what they are investing in.
2 – Due to the information vacuum, people who bought $XRP could not know for sure what insiders do with their holdings. There was no way to see that the only thing they did was sell.
Read 14 tweets
22 Dec 20
Yes, I am very much going to join the “I told you so chorus” here.

#Ripple is the biggest scam in the world IMO and their useless token $XRP absolutely is a security. I have fought the Ripple army in my articles since 2017.

Well done SEC. Hope its a strong case. Don’t settle.
And yes that means #tether is only the second biggest scam (because what could be bigger than printing $30bn and DIRECTLY giving it to yourself like XRP did?).

But 👏 regulators 👏 will 👏 come 👏for 👏 tether 👏too
And don’t let brainless $XRP buddies make you believe that this is an ‘attack on #crypto’. The SEC is attacking a company that built a centralized database nobody needs and then created securities if which it kept 80% to finance their business. #ripple then dumped on retail.
Read 5 tweets
21 Dec 20
#Covid19 #coronavirus #corona

To our politicians: Rapid testing exists since June 2020. Had we produced them in a state-mandated manner & done an explanation of how to use them on national TV, plus subsidized the purchase, we could have a #lockdown free, safe life...
... where you can buy a rapid test at every little shop around the corner for 2-3 EUR (that is the production cost) and you can go about your life. These tests are not hard to use, they do NOT require a doctor to use them and while they are "only" 90-95% accurate...
... PCR is at 97% and I'll remind you the vaccine is going to be around 90% if we are really lucky. And yet, the only thing we do is sit around and wait for the vaccine and lock out flights from other countries, when the likelihood the mutated virus is already in Europe...
Read 13 tweets

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