So... #bitcoin up $800 in seconds after this. #tether doesn‘t move price, right?... but if this isn‘t the last print it sure marked the bottom nicely. Go figure
We‘re going to need a lot more though...
Simultaneously people aren‘t so high on leverage anymore it seems and #tether premium coming into printable range again 💪🏻
Now we just need to be sure Paolo won‘t let us down and send lot‘s moar!
I think Ray Dalio calls this „beautiful deleveraging“...
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More on #tether. Just listened to the podcast with Paolo and Stuart done by Peter McCormack. I thought it was informative, but there were significant issues. I will first summarize the relevant part of Q&A (and paraphrase), then provide my interpretation.
1/ Are you shareholders in Deltec bank? A: They do not disclose investments.
2/ What is your KYC process? A: Stuart clearly read off a statement prepared by their lawyers.
3/ Why can $USDT be issued on weekends? A: Because they already have the funds but this is when the customers require/want them or receive them.
Okay. So in the middle of #bitcoin $BTC dalalilama to $40k and beyond, while we are all (including me) exceedingly happy... Humor me and think about #tether for a moment. Let's do it together:
We know that there are "scientific" papers out there that allege that $USDT prints drove $BTC price in 2016/17 and we also know those have been disputed in some ways by other smart people. I have read those disputes and I can see their point too. We also know that...
... @lawmaster, a guy that many people would say is highly trustworthy in this trustless industry (myself included) has "testified" that he has spoken to more than 10 (I think) people who have successfully redeemend money from #tether. We have also seen irregular balance...
The investable universe is PERP futures listed on FTX and it goes without saying that it is only crypto (ie I will ignore any stock futures) and only altcoins
The experiment is set up as a classic 120% Long, 100% short book (ie it has a theoretical market exposure of just 20%).
It is meant to be a stable experiment and I will update the positions (and re-size them) once a month. I expect very little movement in individual names. I want to see if a "classic" strategy where investors pick higher quality to go long and lower to go short works in #crypto.
Basically going to bed now so I can’t make this a long thread, but re #bitcoin $BTC price here (32k):
- Funding rates are apesh1t crazy
- Futures heavily contango
- #tether price > spotprice in real $ (implying harder for Paolo to keep pumping)
- Orderbooks quite empty
...
- Price action looks similar to a blow off top (short capitulation)
- Bubble roof target almost met (its 5% off the current ATH)
- all the action took place on holidays (lower volume)
...
In summary - this could very well have been the local top that leads to one of $BTC s patented 30% reversals. I still think $23-24k will be tested, but maybe $27.8k is enough. I watch funding rates mostly to see if we have kicked excess leverage or not. Invalidation: new ATH
1/ A #bitcoin ETF will be launched in 2021 2/ $BTC will keep rising in price till the Fed stops their current round of quantitative easing, but IF/when it stops, people will be surprised at how negative it will be for any kind of assets despite a roaring economy
3/ Security standards for #token become more aligned globally and raising money via token that have equity-like rights will become a generally accepted way to raise early capital for companies 4/ $ETH will mark a new ATH in price, but scalability will become more of an issue
5/ #Binance, #Bitfinex, #Tether or #Bitmex will not survive 2021 6/ $UNI will be investigated as a security - the outcome is extremely hard to predict, but volumes on #uniswap won't suffer 7/ #Ripple will be convicted in court for securities fraud