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@dkcrypto13

7 Jan

Okay. So in the middle of #bitcoin $BTC dalalilama to $40k and beyond, while we are all (including me) exceedingly happy... Humor me and think about #tether for a moment. Let's do it together:

We know that there are "scientific" papers out there that allege that $USDT prints drove $BTC price in 2016/17 and we also know those have been disputed in some ways by other smart people. I have read those disputes and I can see their point too. We also know that...

@lawmaster

... @lawmaster, a guy that many people would say is highly trustworthy in this trustless industry (myself included) has "testified" that he has spoken to more than 10 (I think) people who have successfully redeemend money from #tether. We have also seen irregular balance...

Read 16 tweets

DK

@dkcrypto13

3 Jan

The #Crypto Quality Arb Portfolio - Experiment for 2021

I set up an account with 11x leverage, invested in 14 Longs I consider to be higher quality vs 11 Shorts I do not consider to be such quality

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT. IT IS NOT ADVICE.

#altcoins #bitcoin #ftx #qualityarb

The investable universe is PERP futures listed on FTX and it goes without saying that it is only crypto (ie I will ignore any stock futures) and only altcoins

The experiment is set up as a classic 120% Long, 100% short book (ie it has a theoretical market exposure of just 20%).

It is meant to be a stable experiment and I will update the positions (and re-size them) once a month. I expect very little movement in individual names. I want to see if a "classic" strategy where investors pick higher quality to go long and lower to go short works in #crypto.

Read 11 tweets

DK

@dkcrypto13

2 Jan

Basically going to bed now so I can’t make this a long thread, but re #bitcoin $BTC price here (32k):

- Funding rates are apesh1t crazy
- Futures heavily contango
- #tether price > spotprice in real $ (implying harder for Paolo to keep pumping)
- Orderbooks quite empty
...

- Price action looks similar to a blow off top (short capitulation)
- Bubble roof target almost met (its 5% off the current ATH)
- all the action took place on holidays (lower volume)
...

In summary - this could very well have been the local top that leads to one of $BTC s patented 30% reversals. I still think $23-24k will be tested, but maybe $27.8k is enough. I watch funding rates mostly to see if we have kicked excess leverage or not. Invalidation: new ATH

Read 5 tweets

DK

@dkcrypto13

29 Dec 20

1/ A #bitcoin ETF will be launched in 2021
2/ $BTC will keep rising in price till the Fed stops their current round of quantitative easing, but IF/when it stops, people will be surprised at how negative it will be for any kind of assets despite a roaring economy

3/ Security standards for #token become more aligned globally and raising money via token that have equity-like rights will become a generally accepted way to raise early capital for companies
4/ $ETH will mark a new ATH in price, but scalability will become more of an issue

5/ #Binance, #Bitfinex, #Tether or #Bitmex will not survive 2021
6/ $UNI will be investigated as a security - the outcome is extremely hard to predict, but volumes on #uniswap won't suffer
7/ #Ripple will be convicted in court for securities fraud

Read 6 tweets

DK

@dkcrypto13

27 Dec 20

Thoughts on #bitcoin price here in a thread

TL;DR: $BTC is caught between a tug of war of market manipulation by #tether, pushing price on low volume on one hand and undeniable fundamental asset price inflation driven by the Fed’s printing on the other.

1/ $BTC is up 22% in 5 days on ever falling, low volume in holiday trading. During this time it has defied every sensible signal. Leveraged funding is unsustainably high, futures are as far in contango as I can remember.

2/ #tether has printed $400m during the holidays, implying that either huge (and I mean HUGE) institutional investors have wired real Dollars over the period when they aren’t in the office or, as we all know it to be true: they are printing freely out of thin air.

Read 14 tweets

DK

@dkcrypto13

23 Dec 20

(Another) thread about $XRP, #Ripple & why what they did was so despicable. It's not about them getting a fee & walking free, nor about whether the token will go up or down in value. It's about people understanding what this organization did to them. #crypto #bitcoin #XRP

1 - #Ripple sold something to the public that the public could not get information about. There are regulations that ensure that investors can understand what is happening with their funds and what they are investing in.

2 – Due to the information vacuum, people who bought $XRP could not know for sure what insiders do with their holdings. There was no way to see that the only thing they did was sell.

Read 14 tweets

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