Short thread on Irish election #GE2020 for my non-Irish followers. 1. #FF the party that informed Peter Mair’s ‘cartel party’ will not be a cartel party again. It will never regain its pre-crash standing. 2. SF emerged as the largest party in vote terms. @BrigidLaffan
The performance of #SF was a surprise given their 2019 EP & local elections performance but they managed to frame a manifesto that really resonated with the electorate @BrigidLaffan
The election was not about BREXIT but domestic issues-housing & health were the top two. Irish voters not concerned about jobs or the economy for the first time in 10 years. @BrigidLaffan
Electorate want the deficits in the social/infrastructure state sorted. Government formation will be challenging but I predict that a stable coalition will emerge. @BrigidLaffan
There will be lots of posturing but the most likely Gov will consist of FF & SF. Given their electoral mandate, @sinnfeinireland should be in Gov. Will be difficult for FF leader but the alternatives are difficult to see. @BrigidLaffan
Irish politics buck wider trends- far right nativist parties polled less than 2%. Rather this was a left-right election & the left has done better than ever before in Irish politics. @BrigidLaffan
#GE2020 represents major change but also continuity. The history of Ireland since the foundation of the state is the gradual incorporation of anti-system parties into parliament and then Gov. The gun is out of Irish politics for good.@BrigidLaffan
I don’t expect the new Gov to diverge from the consensus on #Brexit but the national conversation of the future of the island will begin in earnest. There will be a Convention/Forum on unification & SF will use their place in Gov to achieve a border poll.
FG after 10 years in Gov are heading for opposition. It will suit them to be in opposition with SF in power
