1/4 The winning list for the #LPDF is the most difficult to enforce.

The international community designed and pushed for a #Bashagha/#Agila victory, and were prepared to deal with the difficulties that may face it.

However, this scenario was not in their calculations.
2/4 The new Prime Minister, Abdulhamid #Dbaiba’s name is synonymous with corruption in #Libya and there is currently an investigation underway looking into allegations of bribery made against him in the #LPDF.
3/4 As for Mnefi, the new head of the Presidential Council: He is known to be affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and has no weight in Eastern #Libya, which he is meant to represent.

This list fails to take into account regional considerations with regards to #Egypt.
4/4It will be interesting to see how national and international actors respond to the #LPDF’s conclusion.

It is difficult to see how this government will be able to operate in #Libya.

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More from @LibyaDesk

6 Feb
1/ Seems #Haftar has pulled off a last minute upset after finding himself being cornered by his allies locally and internationally.
While his allies find themselves shuffling to make sense of yesterday’s developments, Haftar is positioning himself as sole negotiator of the east.
2/ For #Haftar to successfully achieve this goal, he will need to carry out a hard reset as his advisors are now blamed for failing to secure a new executive consisting of their allies.

#Agila is facing heavy criticism both socially and politically in Eastern #Libya.
3/ #Agila was warned by constituents to avoid a deal with #Bashagha and to have a back up plan that allows a ‘socially’ acceptable candidate take his place such as #Baraghthee of #AlWafi (in that order).

The competition for social credit is now between #Haftar & #AlMnefi.
Read 7 tweets
13 Dec 19
A lot of the questions that came up during @LibyaDesk consultations in #Tunis had to do with the return of former #Gaddafi officials and supporters to the scene.
It came as no surprise that a lot of the available information was false.
This thread will attempt to clarify things.
Since 2011, tribes and figures that supported the former strongman were sidelined and persecuted, forcing many to flee #Libya.
The first return of ‘green’ Libyans (Gaddafi supporters) was in 2014 #Benghazi when #Haftar called on them to assist in the war against #terrorism.
This created a safe zone in east of #Libya which resulted in many families in exile that could no longer afford living in #Egypt or #Tunisia to move to towns in the east.
Politically, the first return of former #Gaddafi officials to political life was due to #Sarraj..
Read 15 tweets

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