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Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
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15 Feb, 6 tweets, 2 min read
With B117 here we must aim for COVID zero or we will have a third wave and the worst lockdown yet 👇

My recent article in The Progress Report @ProgressAlberta edited by @duncankinney 🙏
theprogressreport.ca/_now_that_b117…
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But this bleak scenario is not inevitable. We have a window of opportunity now, when the new variant is not yet well established and doesn’t have a strong foothold, to avoid that terrible future. Image
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P.S. The timeline of B.1.1.7 in Alberta 👇
The number of B.1.1.7 cases *is growing*

globalnews.ca/news/7638609/a…
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Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
19 Mar
B117 grows exponentially in AB *since 3 months*.
Doubling time as of Mar 14: 11 days, R=1.29

That’s fast. During AB fall surge cases were doubling every 18 days.

At this rate AB may have:

Apr 19, 1000 daily new cases,
May 03, 2000 daily new cases

1/
Future effects of reopenings and vaccinations are not included in this projection.
Reopenings will speed the growth up.

Vaccines…

2/
We don’t know exactly how effective the vaccines are against transmission.
Let’s assume 60% effectiveness:
Then, in order to break the exponential growth of B117, i.e. to reduce its R from current 1.29 to 1.00, 38% of people would need to be vaccinated.
We are not there yet.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
13 Mar
Alberta:
Announced* new B117 cases seem to be doubling every 2 weeks.

At this rate AB could have:
1000+ daily cases around May 10,
2000+ daily cases in late May

*Please read footnotes under the graph.
1/
It is not doubling as fast as it could, e.g. not every 7 days.

But doubling every 2 weeks is still *very fast*.

It's *faster* than Alberta's November surge, when cases were doubling every 2.5 weeks.

2/
In theory vaccine could flatten such growth, if 40% of Albertans would get vaccinated and if the vaccine would be 60% effective against transmission.

As of today, 5.5% of ppl in AB received at least one dose.

Meanwhile, reopenings will likely increase the rate of spread.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
13 Mar
A great simulation comparing the spread of variants over ~6 weeks, starting from 100 cases.
Wild Type R = 0.7
Assuming B117: 50% more transmissible, P1: 70% more transmissible than the Wild Type.
R=0.7 is what AB had at the end of the shut-down last spring. Wild Type daily case count was halving every 8 days.
Under that conditions P1 would still spread like a wildfire.
Please play/run the simulation few times.
Stochasticity (randomness): Each time the result is different, but Wild Type always goes down, while P1 in vast majority of runs shoots up super fast.

Read 9 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
12 Mar
Excellent article.
#COVIDzero #ZeroCovid #CovidStop
“Public Health Director Horacio Arruda has said that vaccination will make COVID-19 less severe and that we could tolerate up to four to six times more cases if they were less severe. Yet if there is more community transmission, there will be more variants, more long-term COVID..
“...and the possibility of more long-term effects among the younger population.
...
Read 9 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
1 Mar
Scenarios for Alberta COVID spread.

Current policy seems to be producing a third "wave".

As always, #COVIDzero is the way out - the only rational and humane solution.
Had we adopted #COVIDzero strategy on Nov 11, we would have now *6.5 weeks of no community transmission*.
46 🍩days!
Which means businesses could be relatively safely reopened.
And we would have a perspective of a normal spring and summer.
...
Maybe we would need to stamp out small flare ups, but the vast majority of people who got sick or died from COVID between Jan 15 and today, would be healthy and alive.
And people who need to live in isolation since 1 year, could now have normal life. Since couple of weeks.
...
Read 4 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
12 Feb
B117 grows exponentially in AB, doubling every 7 days.
At this rate it'll become dominant on Mar05
and AB will have:

Mar 15, 500 daily new cases
Mar 24, 1000 daily new cases
Mar 31, 2000 daily new cases

Yes, the government and AH can avoid it. By aiming for #COVIDzero ASAP
To put such growth in context:

AB fall surge: doubling time = 2.5 weeks
March, beginning of the pandemic: doubling time = 7 days
Today's B117, *despite of restrictions in place*: doubling time = 7 days
What does this fast growth mean?

1) AB travel control is weak -> B117 gets seeded in the community.
2) Testing (although impressively ramped up) and Tracing is *not* halting B117's exp. growth.

Alberta *doesn't have B117 under control*.
Read 5 tweets

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