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Alexander Baunov

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17 Feb, 7 tweets, 5 min read

1/7 THREAD #Navalny is very successful at reaching out to and inspiring young Russians. But #Russia’s population is ageing.

My try to answer the questions, where is Russian #protest everybody was closely following just one week ago. carnegie.ru/commentary/838…

2/7 The idea of dignity as a trigger for political protest in Russia is complicated in #Navalny case by the fact that for so many Russians, dignity has long been expressed in the form of resistance to the West. carnegie.ru/commentary/838…

3/7 There is huge inertia within Russian society. Most people sense that the regime is not, in fact, on the verge of collapse, and that mass street protests are unlikely to accelerate the end of the #Putin era carnegie.ru/commentary/838…

4/7 The #Kremlin is banking on that reaction, and wants to foster public expectations that any #protest movement will exhaust itself, just like the many previous movements, and that the regime will stay standing. carnegie.ru/commentary/838…

5/7 #Navalny and his team are brilliant at generating media attention, viral content, and huge numbers of viewers of his anti-corruption videos. But this popularity may not necessarily translate into active support offline. carnegie.ru/commentary/838…

6/7 "You want a revolution of dignity? — the #Kremlin suggest. – Then first you should be ready to go through certain humiliation." Even people who are unhappy will opt for what looks to them like perfectly rational behaviour, and stay out of politics. carnegie.ru/commentary/838…

77/ Ultimately, what #Navalny team is trying to do is persuade Russians and foreigners alike that he is the only legitimate opponent of #Putin. Under this logic, the transfer of power to any other person except Navalny would not be enough. carnegie.ru/commentary/838…

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More from @baunov

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

2 Feb

1/4 I had mistakenly thought that with the three and a half year sentence #Navalny would be in prison during the Russian presidential elections in 2024.

2/4 But since the previously served year of home arrest counts toward the sentence, he should be released just before the elections in March 2024. Could it be a sign that Putin plans to leave by 2024 and organize snap elections, transferring power to a successor?

3/4 Unfortunately, there will always be the possibility of adding to Navalny's sentence at a later date. At the same time, it is unclear what would complicate the transfer of power more – Navalny imprisoned or free.

Read 4 tweets

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

25 Jan

THREAD 1/7 Saturday’s protests were also noticeable for the lack of humorous slogans and placards in comparison with previous Russian protests . The protesters were very serious, even gloomy. From my current piece carnegie.ru/commentary/837…

2/7 The slogans lacked the usual appeals to the law, democracy, and the constitution. This protest was not about calling on the authorities to follow the law, count votes fairly, allow candidates to run. It was a march against those in power bit.ly/36d6zIm

3/7 Unlike the protests that followed the murder of the opposition politician Boris Nemtsov in 2015, Saturday’s Moscow rally was not dominated by representatives of the capital’s liberal intelligentsia bit.ly/36d6zIm

Read 7 tweets

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

16 Oct 20

1/7 The new round of sanctions introduced by the EU against Russia over the poisoning of opposition politician Alexei Navalny have three key aspects. My take here carnegie.ru/commentary/829…

2/7They target individual people and organizations, rather than entire sectors of the economy; they don’t follow the suggestion of targeting the subjects of Navalny’s investigations; and they don’t distinguish between the siloviki (security services) hawks and in-system liberals

3/7 The list does not mention the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, although judging by multiple public statements made on the issue, canceling the pipeline project is seen as the most effective punishment bit.ly/3dF8t7m

Read 7 tweets

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

9 Oct 20

1/8 Russia is not charging in to help its ally Armenia because it doesn’t just matter who is under attack, but who they are under attack from. My take on Russia's present role in #NagornoKarabakh carnegie.ru/commentary/829…

2/8Unlike other former Soviet republics with frozen conflicts (Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova), Azerbaijan has not been an enemy state for Russia. Azerbaijan has cooperated with NATO, but it has never voiced any official ambition to join the alliance bit.ly/3jK43OH

3/8 Among the former Soviet states, Azerbaijan has always been an example of how to follow a foreign policy that is entirely independent from Russia, while maintaining a good relationship with Moscow bit.ly/3jK43OH

Read 8 tweets

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

5 Oct 20

1/5 Now the old methods are proving less effective in forcing Navalny outside the already narrow Russian political space. My new short piece carnegie.ru/commentary/828…

2/5 It’s his increased visibility and unwitting mythologization brought about by the poisoning that have prompted the accusations that Navalny is a CIA agent parroting a foreign paymaster’s charges against Putin personally bit.ly/3jzeZOX

3/5 Putin, who believes that enemies deserve respect, while traitors do not, doesn’t want to do Navalny the honor of giving him the status of an enemy.

Read 5 tweets

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

1 Oct 20

1/7 Among much real and imagined bad news from Russia, this really is awful bit.ly/2SeZaRJ

2/7 Russia’s Investigative Committee has arrested staff & doctors of companies that provided surrogacy services to single men (in reality, some of them in gay couples), is removing children from their families, & threatening to charge the fathers with trafficking children.

3/7 There is ongoing discussion about the moral and legal aspects of surrogacy around the world. But the arguments the Russian authorities are using in this particular case have nothing to do with protecting women or children.

Read 7 tweets

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