This is the third edition of my tweetstorms on #GeneTherapy #CellTherapy #GeneEditing. This one compares $SGMO to $CRSP and attempts to look at #GenomeMedicine from the perspectives laid out by C.Woods at ARK This is part one of the series. Pt 2 tomorrow AM 1/20
The charts of both are attached and useful context. $CRSP went public in 2016. The weekly chart is attached and notes the pct ownership of $ARKG $ARKK since CY18. Prior the stock was stagnant below the support/resistance levels show. 2/20
I'm including two charts for $SGMO. Wkly and Mthly. The weekly shows they were pulled along with the #geneediting group The monthly shows this rally/bust cycle is not unique. Compare the SGMO 2017-2018 to CRSP. Pretty similar. More later. 3/20
Cash activity is always important for precommercial bios so here's a snapshot of both $CRSP and $SGMO. Note cash runways of 5.1 and 3.4 yrs. Both in strong positions. More on equity and cash outlook later. 4/20
Technology is positioned as a key differentiator by both $CRSP and $SGMO. See ASGCT definition of #GeneTherapy (global). Bottom line: both are attempting to cure diseases safely introducing, removing, or changing a person's genetic code. 5/20
There are four classes of engineered nucleases which are common in #GeneEditing. #ZFN has been around for much longer while #CRISPR is relatively new. 6/20
In any emerging new technology, Intellectual Property IP is critical. $SGMO has a virtual monopoly on #ZFN #ZFP. $CRSP is one of several companies with competing IP claims that are under dispute. More later. 7/20
Controlling spend and burn is critical for cos with no short window to comm. Pts on their approaches is useful. $CRSP has a narrow focus on #CellTherapy + primarily owned or co-owned prods. $SGMO is far more broadly focused. Big neg at CRSP is IP costs/legal def 8/20
The focus difference leads to higher risk/reward at $CRSP. They spent $71m per clinical program in C20 vs $50m More on programs later but note decline for SGMO vs increase for CRSP. 9/20
Employees adds context to spend. $CRSP has 410 ees (in US) of which most (354) are R&D. Strong allocation of resources. $SGMO has a similar ee count of 413 but they have fewer R&D employees with a global presence in UK/France and 34% of staff in mfg/TechOps. 10/20
Quick look at Cap Equip spending for each. Note $SGMO intangible assets from acquistion of TxCell for CAR Treg assets. 11/20
Not only is $CRSP on the hook for defense of IP that they are licensing and and paying commercial royalties for, they are in licensing more to accelerate development which costs more on backend. 12/20
A look at current revenues before we move on. $CRSP had a number of amendments to their $VRTX agreement with resulted in a complete recognition of the upfront. Historical revenues are tied to upfronts with some milestone more later. 13/20
$SGMO upfront revenues are recognized over the period of their involvement (like most). They have a layered collab structure which funds and informs progress. 14/20
The respective pipelines come next as we get more into value and expectations. $CRSP has 5 clinical programs and one preclinical program. $SGMO has 4 clinical (not incl HIV) and 13 preclinical programs. 15/20
More importantly, $CRSP is only focused on #CellTherapy while $SGMO has programs in all modalities. This is important to my valuation perspectives later 16/20
Both $CRSP and $SGMO are pursuing ex vivo edited hemoglobinopathy and oncology Cell Therapies. stem cell programs have significant undefined risk due to multiple issues surrounding ex vivo editing and the use of preconditioning ablation treatment. 17/20
We don't yet know why $CRSP so far has better data than what $SGMO has published on Hemoglobinopathies. SGMO claims they have about the same editing efficiency but additional data needs to be released 18/20
CAR-T cell therapy is a very popular arena driven by the enormous existing #oncology revenue base to disrupt. 19/20
$CRSP has 3 owned programs while $SGMO is collaborating with $GILD. The SGMO collab appears stalled which is problematic given the growing base of competitive products being pushed forward in the field. 20/20
That's enough for tonight and mostly housekeeping. Tomorrow I'll turn to valuation perspectives and whatever I forgot tonight. The outlook for this sector is a couple decades so don't think anyone has missed any opps yet regardless of views on ultimate winners. GL

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Marty Chilberg

Marty Chilberg Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @mchilberg

25 Feb
Part II of the $CRSP $SGMO comparison will hopefully be a bit less dry now that Part I updates are in place. This thread will focus more on valuation, outlook and why the valuation cycle should matter to investors.
1/
Let's start with the concept of #Disruptive technologies. The originator of disruptive innovation theory, Clayton Christensen worked with HBR in 2015 to revisit the past 20 years.
2/
hbr.org/2015/12/what-i… ImageImage
#GenomicMedicine is disrupting Big Pharma who has begun to respond by spinning off old product lines and jumping into #GeneTherapy.
3/ ImageImageImage
Read 24 tweets
20 Feb
Appears Cowen published a useful courtesy $SGMO rept for investors prior to their annual HC conference. Most of the verbiage is an accumulation of prior reports. They have higher model royalties for $PFE and $SNY royalties than mine. Not a SOTP or full blown model Image
Cowen states that though the prelim data on $SNY collab was unimpressive, they are cautiously optimistic. My fcst was pushed out several years consistent with $BLUE issues and probability that more issues will crop up for $CRSP and $SGMO programs.
Attached screenshot of Cowen P&L is consistent with reported $SGMO revenue in C19 including:
- Research reimbursement $16m (mostly Gilead/Sanofi)
- Upfront amort $46m
- Milestones $39m Image
Read 4 tweets
26 Dec 20
$ARKG Tweet series
This series of tweets is my opinion only. Cathie Wood has created a group of ETFs that target the disruptive innovation that is both happening and accelerating. These funds have had stellar performance based upon innovation trends and economic theory.
1/ Image
The $ARKG fund description is a good place to start. This has changed recently to a #CRISPR theme but started more with the sequencing cost declines which would drive diagnostics adoption and precision medicine
2/ Image
The economic driver of the Genomic Revolution is a multiplier. Not only sequencing cost declines but the impact of moving from #ZFN to #TALENs to #CRISPR is key. As the editing cost has dropped CRISPR is seeing a dominant increase in publications.
3/ Image
Read 23 tweets
4 Sep 20
What's up with $SGMO valuation? This thread will try to show some history and the setup for what I still hope to be an outsized move. First worth noting that news will always trump technicals. First here is a month chart I've been using for the company 1/
This being a 10 year chart, it doesn't show how long $SGMO has been around but it does show virtually no trading volume and a 3 yr ceiling on the price as they were in early development stage while trying to get ill-chosen indications into pre/clinic 2/
The first wave $SGMO rally started in 2013 when the ceiling was broken. The company was talking up #GeneEditing #GeneRegulation #HIVcure and #diabetes None were ready but the volume picked up and the first big rally ensued going from around $9 to $20 3/
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!