Thread by @gbponz

It has to be reminded that it did NOT work on #HongKong, where the main driver was treaty expiration, NOT Chinese pressure. Even there, economic, political and military considerations made it unpalatable.(/)

https://twitter.com/nglinsman/status/1377725329536614403

Yet treaty duly expired, since there was no way for the UK to act otherwise. If anything, what should worry #Taiwan is NOT #China. It's #Germany, which is turning into a sort of Neutral player whose goal is to displease no one.(/)

However, Since Germany is #Europe's bank it has a disproportionate influence on policy, hence the soft touch with Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, you name it. Any country where bosses have an Iron hand on trade issues get treated well.(/)

Countries with either rule of law, or not so interesting as a business partner, or with strained relations with members of that list get treated less well. #Taiwan fits this profile (as do the #UK and #Visegrad countries).(/)

In a world where countries adhere each to his own set of principle, after the repression in Hong Kong Taiwan should be much less of a pariah. Yet while Chinese bullying has firmed a favorable political landscape locally, the list of countries warning China off is not longer.(/)

#France is holding a permanent seat in the #UN security Council, but that doesn't mean they'd take a firm stance against Germany's wishes. China can threaten as much as it wants without #CAI being seriously in danger. Like #Nordstream2.(/)

So, while an attempt at an invasion would be a disaster for #China, some kind of "attrition" will serve Xi's purposes. Trouble is, it adds to an unstable and opaque equilibrium in all trouble spots. @amlivemon @vtchakarova @RobertMCutler @shaun_riordan @ELuttwak @Halsrethink