In press at @apsrjournal: "Partisan polarization is the primary psychological motivation behind political fake news sharing on Twitter" (psyarxiv.com/v45bk). We find that fake news sharers are not less reflected or literate. They just hate the other party more. 🧵[1/13]
Method: We received permission from 2,300 survey users collected by YouGov to scrape their Twitter accounts. We matched their tweets against lists of "fake news" and "real news" web domains and categorized them according to their political slant. [2/13]
How much is shared? Consistent with prior work, fake news seems a small problem. 3 % of tweets link to a fake news domain & only 1 % of the panelists share 75 % of all fake news. Most fake news stories are pro-Republican. Most real news, in contrast, are pro-Democrats. [3/13]
Who shares? We examined 3 accounts: (1) Ignorance (e.g., reflection, knowledge and digital literacy), (2) disruption (e.g., trolling) and (3) polarization (e.g., hatred of the other party). Measures are coded such that *positive* coeffs are consistent with the account. [4/13]
Results: No support for the role of ignorance in these data; some support for disruption; & strong support for polarized sentiments. BUT: (1) The same factors are associated with *real* news sharing. (2) Outparty hatred is better predictor for sharing of pro-Rep. sources. [5/13]
How to explain the symmetry in fake & real news sharing? For partisans, fake news is simply another (but extreme) source of "useful" info for denigration. Thus, partisanship is a stronger predictor when moving towards these extreme ends of the partisan news spectrum. [6/13]
Similarly, there is a strong overlap in those sharing links to fake news sources and those sharing linkes to strongly partisan but real news sources. [7/13]
How to explain the asymmetry between Dems and Reps in fake news sharing? To this end, we analyzed all shared news headlines for sentiment and whether they were about Dems or Reps. We replicated this for all 500,000 news stories published on the websites in the same period. [8/13]
Our analysis suggets that, for Republicans, fake news sources are simply much more *useful* then for Democrats. Dems can find negative news stories about Reps in mainstream media. To find very negative news about Dems, Reps need to go beyond the mainstream. [10/13]
As discussed, this doesn't necessarily imply that there is strong media bias. It could reflect a "bias in reality". But it does suggest that Dems and Reps are not psychologically different & cares equally about truth (which, however, may not be alot for strong partisans). [11/13]
Overall, this shows that "fake news" is partisan business-as-usual: A search for info to denigrate opponents. While a small problem in itself, "fake news" is thus a canary-in-the-coalmine: Revealing the massively polarized sentiments that currently drives all news sharing [12/13]
The work was tirelessly led by @Osmundsen_M together with @boralexander1, @anjabechmann and twitterless Peter Vahlstrup. The study was by @AUFF2017 and @Carlsbergfondet. Data and code is available @HarvardDV. [13/13]

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More from @M_B_Petersen

26 Mar
🚨OUT NOW🚨

We surveyed 26,000 people in 8 countries during the 1st weeks of #covid19: bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bj…

An urgent sense of crisis made people disregard fear and trust and say, "tell us what to do & we'll do it", leading to history's largest behavioral change.

🧵[1/8]
In normal times, protective behavior is often driven by fear (tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…). Yet, work by @SusanMichie suggest that a sense of self-efficacy is key during a massive pandemic crisis (bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…). We confirm this. [2/8]
From March to May, we surveyed more than 26,000 individuals across 8 countries: 🇺🇸🇩🇰🇮🇹🇬🇧🇭🇺🇸🇪🇩🇪🇫🇷. We found high levels of especially avoidant (distancing) but also preventive (handwashing) across all countries, independently of covid-cases and policies. [3/8]
Read 8 tweets
22 Mar
En ny fase mod #covid19dk venter med genåbningen. Det er afgørende, at vi der fastholder læren fra 2020: Regeringen kan & bør have tillid til borgerne. Men der er tegn på et strategiskifte. Læs min kronik i @berlingske (berlingske.dk/kronikker/prof…) & denne 🧵[1/9]

#dkpol #dkmedier
Natten til 11. marts 2020 delte @Statsmin en artikel, der argumenterede for frivillig adfærd og kommunikation som strategi mod #covid19dk (thelancet.com/journals/lance…). HOPE-projektet har vist, at den strategi virkede ekstremt effektivt i DK (psyarxiv.com/uzwgf/). [2/9]
Fokus på frivillighed er vigtigt, da pandemien er lang og indgribende. Krisen har radikaliseringspotentiale (psyarxiv.com/ykupt/), & ca. 1 mio. danskere er bekymrede for deres rettigheder jf. HOPE-data. Den andel er lav ift. andre lande, måske pga fokus på frivillighed. [3/9]
Read 9 tweets
20 Mar
NY HOPE-rapport

- Høj støtte til politikken; men der er fald, særligt ift uddannelser

- Høj optimisme, men stigende udmattelse og mistrivsel

- Lav bekymring ift. ens rettigheder, men stigende oplevelse af splittelse

Læs her: raw.githubusercontent.com/mariefly/HOPE/….

#dkpol #dkmedier [1/11] Image
Overordnet set støtter en høj andel af befolkningen håndteringen (ca. 70 %). Dette er det højest målte påtværs af de lande vi følger. Der ses dog et lille fald siden feb., og særligt har der de seneste måneder været fald i opbakningen til lukning af uddannelser. [2/11] Image
Optimismen stiger og bekymringen falder. Bekymringen er nu igen primært rettet mod landets økonomi. [3/11] ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
24 Feb
Politisk splid kan udhule borgernes adfærd på 3 måder:

1) Kritiske grupper dropper sundhedsrådene
2) Opmærksomheden forsvinder fra epidemien
3) Tab af et fælles projekt gør, at alle slipper lidt

En 🧵om hvad vi ved - og hvad der er mest sandsynligt.

#dkpol #dkmedier [1/11]
Der er særdeles god dokumentation for at splid på Christiansborg skaber splid i befolkningen (doi.org/10.1111/ajps.1…). Studier fra USA viser, at splid gør, at kritiske vælgergrupper i mindre grad følger sundhedsrådene og forværrer epidemien (fx sciencedirect.com/science/articl…) [2/11]
Også i DK er der splid mellem vælgergrupperne, når det kommer til corona - og den splid er blevet større efterhånden, som krisen er skredet frem (raw.githubusercontent.com/mariefly/HOPE/…). [3/11]
Read 11 tweets
23 Feb
En forudsætning for genåbningen er, at borgernes private adfærd er uændret.

Men ny HOPE-rapport viser, at adfærden fortsat udvikler sig negativt: raw.githubusercontent.com/mariefly/HOPE/….

Det afspejler både faldende bekymring & faldende forståelse for restriktionerne.

#dkpol #dkmedier 🧵[1/5]
Adfærden er på niveau fra før januar-restriktionerne, og opmærksomheden er faldende. Det kan afspejle ferie og godt vejr, så man kunne mødes i det fri. Udfordringen er dog, at modellerne antager konstant adfærd - og adfærden har stor betydning (sum.dk/Media/6/3/bila…). [2/5]
At adfærden ikke blot handler om ferie afspejles også af vedvarende ændringer i de psykologiske faktorer bag adfærden. I takt med de faldende smittetal er bekymringen faldet støt. Bekymringen er nu på niveau med slut-november, lige inde smitten accelererede. [3/5]
Read 5 tweets
15 Feb
Tillidskurven er knækket, og adfærden påvirkes nu negativt. Vi står i en kritisk fase af epidemien. Regeringen kan ikke "købe ro" med små lunser genåbning. Der skal skabes mening igennem en langsigtet strategi.

Ny HOPE-rapport: raw.githubusercontent.com/mariefly/HOPE/…

#dkpol #dkmedier 🧵[1/7]
Trods at restriktioner og anbefalinger er de samme for de fleste, så ser vi flere i de private sammenhænge (raw.githubusercontent.com/mariefly/HOPE/…). Det afspejler, at vi opfatter virus som en mindre trussel og rådene som mindre beskyttende (raw.githubusercontent.com/mariefly/HOPE/…). [2/7]
Genåbningsdebatten raser og måske kunne lidt "lunser" af genåbning "skabe ro"? Men det er en fejlanalyse. I foråret øgede genåbningerne polariseringen (raw.githubusercontent.com/mariefly/HOPE/…), og genåbningen af de mindste klasser skabte blot yderligere krav om genåbning. [3/7]
Read 7 tweets

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