Thread by @TheLawyerCraig

It's interesting to compare states with a high percentage of the B.1.1.7 variant of #Covid19, but which are located in different regions of the US.

There are 5 states that have shown >50% #B117 for more than 2 weeks now, and their trends are quite different.

Thread 🧵

The first 5 states that have hit >50% of #B117 are Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and Texas. This is according to the @my_helix 5-day moving average
(Link: public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…)

I first started looking at this site after reading @DrEricDing's thread tracking the #B117 percentages—specifically noting Florida, Georgia, and Michigan as growing threats. This was a little over two weeks ago, here:

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1373074531699601410?s=20

I got curious as to how we've been trending since then. First, here are the dates that each state hit #B117 rates of 40%, 50%, and 60% on @my_helix's 5-day moving average:

FL: 3/6, 3/12, 3/24
GA: 3/10, 3/14, 3/17
MI: 3/9, 3/14, 3/19
MN: 3/8, 3/13, 3/24
TX: 3/12, 3/20, 3/23

Here is a graph showing the 7-day-averaged positive testing percentages for these 5 states for the 30-day period from 3/5 to 4/4 (which captures every state hitting 40% and beyond, and includes yesterday's reported data):

FL: mostly flat, slight rise lately

GA: initially larger decline, slight rise, then back down near recent lows

MI: consistent large increase

MN & TX: seem to be mirror images of each other, with TX decreasing and MN increasing (though not nearly as dramatic as MI).

Let's look at the same states' 7-day-averaged current hospitalizations for the same period:

The three southern states are all trending down, while the northern two are trending up (with MI again on a bottle rocket).

Note, however, that MN is still doing the best in terms of % currently hospitalized, but trends are up there.

And saying, "It's warmer, so folks are outside in the South" seems lacking as well. The northern states all dropped precipitously during the absolute coldest time of the year and are ticking back up during the "getting warmer" part of the year.

It's not just weather, folks.

What does this mean? Well, to me, it at least means that the media's & Twitter's reflexive nature to nearly always ascribe rising #Covid19 trends to only two factors—bad behavior and variants—misses the full picture.

Hard to ignore a seasonal/regional/climatological tie though.

PS - I am the most basic chart maker of all-time. Try not to be blown away by my Excel "glowy liny" excellence.