̶T̶h̶e̶r̶e̶ ̶I̶s̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶a̶ ̶C̶o̶r̶o̶n̶a̶v̶i̶r̶u̶s̶ ̶'̶S̶e̶c̶o̶n̶d̶ ̶W̶a̶v̶e̶'̶
W̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶i̶f̶ ̶‘̶H̶e̶r̶d̶ ̶I̶m̶m̶u̶n̶i̶t̶y̶’̶ ̶I̶s̶ ̶C̶l̶o̶s̶e̶r̶ ̶T̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶S̶c̶i̶e̶n̶t̶i̶s̶t̶s̶ ̶T̶h̶o̶u̶g̶h̶t̶?̶
W̶e̶’̶l̶l̶ ̶H̶a̶v̶e̶ ̶H̶e̶r̶d̶ ̶I̶m̶m̶u̶n̶i̶t̶y̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶A̶p̶r̶i̶l̶
These are all US headlines. See below...
There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave’ (June 16, 2020)

wsj.com/articles/there…
What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought? (August 18, 2020)

nytimes.com/2020/08/17/hea…
We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April (February 18, 2021)

wsj.com/articles/well-…

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More from @JPSoucy

29 Jul
A few new ones.

T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶o̶w̶e̶r̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶N̶a̶t̶u̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶I̶m̶m̶u̶n̶i̶t̶y̶
T̶h̶e̶ ̶U̶S̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶p̶p̶r̶o̶a̶c̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶h̶e̶r̶d̶ ̶i̶m̶m̶u̶n̶i̶t̶y̶,̶ ̶e̶x̶p̶e̶r̶t̶s̶ ̶s̶a̶y̶
T̶h̶e̶ ̶R̶e̶a̶s̶s̶u̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶D̶a̶t̶a̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶D̶e̶l̶t̶a̶ ̶V̶a̶r̶i̶a̶n̶t̶
Again, all US headlines.
The Power of Natural Immunity (June 8, 2021)

wsj.com/articles/the-p…
Read 5 tweets
13 Apr
I am sorry, but we are going to see a completely avoidable tragedy play out in Ontario over the next few months.
We simply cannot continue to expand critical care. Additional capacity will exist only on paper. "Hospital beds" are a metaphor. You cannot squeeze blood from a stone.

Read 9 tweets
25 Dec 20
All I want for Christmas is for people to understand that the #vaccines don't change how we have to manage #COVID19 this winter. 🎅

New blog post: COVID-19 Vaccination in Canada: What We Know so Far

Brief summary below. ⬇️🧵 (1/4)

jeanpaulsoucy.com/post/covid-vac…
The COVID-19 Open Data Working Group has been tracking the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines since V-Day (December 14). Data are available on our dashboard and from our GitHub repository. (2/4)

art-bd.shinyapps.io/covid19canada/
github.com/ishaberry/Covi…
At the moment, we can provide regular updates on vaccine doses administered at the provincial level. Data should be considered preliminary. We expect provincial vaccine data to improve in the near future. (3/4)
Read 5 tweets
18 Nov 20
❗WHAT MAKES PERCENT POSITIVITY SUCH A CRITICAL METRIC IN A PANDEMIC?❓

Plus: thoughts on #Ontario #COVID19 thresholds and what #Europe tells us about what's in store for #Canada this winter.

New blog post! 👇👇
jeanpaulsoucy.com/post/percent-p…

(TL;DR below) ⬇️🧵 (1/5)
(2/5) Percent positivity (positive tests / total tests * 100%) is so important because it summarizes two signals in one number: outbreak size and the adequacy of testing. A growing outbreak or insufficient testing (or both) will cause percent positivity to rise.
(3/5) Trying to compare percent positivity over time is more difficult when the underlying population being tested changes over time. Examples in Ontario, Canada include the switch to appointment-based testing, suspension of contact tracing and changing criteria for testing.
Read 6 tweets
17 Nov 20
❗WHAT MAKES PERCENT POSITIVITY SUCH A CRITICAL METRIC IN A PANDEMIC?❓

(1/36) Plus: thoughts on #COVID19 response thresholds in #Ontario and why #Europe is a crystal ball for #Canada... Mega-thread below. 👇🧵🚨
(2/36) While it may be the daily case numbers that grab the headlines, it’s far from the most important metric to watch when determining the trajectory of COVID-19, as I’ve written before.

(3/36) Instead, we should be focusing on other metrics, like the 7-day rolling average, the number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities and percent positivity.
Read 42 tweets
16 Nov 20
Some #COVID19 #Canada trends (% change in 7-day avg. vs. 1 week ago): (1/5)

AB: +78.1% 📈 (599.1/day ➡️ 1,067.3/day)
SK: +62.6% 📈 (97.0/day ➡️ 157.7/day)
MB: +34.4% 📈 (299.4/day ➡️ 402.4/day)
ON: +32.1% 📈 (1,096.6/day ➡️ 1,448.6/day)
QC: +15.2% 📈 (1,119.9/day ➡️ 1,290.6/day)
Both #Alberta and #BritishColumbia have had some reporting difficulties of late. I’ve omitted the BC trend in anticipation of tomorrow’s post-weekend report. (2/5)
Some current and emerging hotspots: (3/5)

Far North (SK): +274.4% 📈 (5.6/day ➡️ 20.9/day)
Windsor-Essex (ON): +101.2% 📈 (11.6/day ➡️ 23.3/day)
Waterloo (ON): +98.9% 📈 (25.4/day ➡️ 50.6/day)
Saskatoon (SK): +64.2% 📈 (32.3/day ➡️ 53.0/day)
Read 7 tweets

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