Share this page!

Jean-Paul R. Soucy Profile picture
Twitter logo
13 Apr, 9 tweets, 3 min read
I am sorry, but we are going to see a completely avoidable tragedy play out in Ontario over the next few months.
We simply cannot continue to expand critical care. Additional capacity will exist only on paper. "Hospital beds" are a metaphor. You cannot squeeze blood from a stone.

There are politicians that will tell you that a shortage of ICU beds in the GTA is no problem because there is a free bed in Kenora.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Jean-Paul R. Soucy

Jean-Paul R. Soucy Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JPSoucy

Jean-Paul R. Soucy Profile picture
25 Dec 20
All I want for Christmas is for people to understand that the #vaccines don't change how we have to manage #COVID19 this winter. 🎅

New blog post: COVID-19 Vaccination in Canada: What We Know so Far

Brief summary below. ⬇️🧵 (1/4)

jeanpaulsoucy.com/post/covid-vac…
The COVID-19 Open Data Working Group has been tracking the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines since V-Day (December 14). Data are available on our dashboard and from our GitHub repository. (2/4)

art-bd.shinyapps.io/covid19canada/
github.com/ishaberry/Covi…
At the moment, we can provide regular updates on vaccine doses administered at the provincial level. Data should be considered preliminary. We expect provincial vaccine data to improve in the near future. (3/4)
Read 5 tweets
Jean-Paul R. Soucy Profile picture
18 Nov 20
❗WHAT MAKES PERCENT POSITIVITY SUCH A CRITICAL METRIC IN A PANDEMIC?❓

Plus: thoughts on #Ontario #COVID19 thresholds and what #Europe tells us about what's in store for #Canada this winter.

New blog post! 👇👇
jeanpaulsoucy.com/post/percent-p…

(TL;DR below) ⬇️🧵 (1/5)
(2/5) Percent positivity (positive tests / total tests * 100%) is so important because it summarizes two signals in one number: outbreak size and the adequacy of testing. A growing outbreak or insufficient testing (or both) will cause percent positivity to rise.
(3/5) Trying to compare percent positivity over time is more difficult when the underlying population being tested changes over time. Examples in Ontario, Canada include the switch to appointment-based testing, suspension of contact tracing and changing criteria for testing.
Read 6 tweets
Jean-Paul R. Soucy Profile picture
17 Nov 20
❗WHAT MAKES PERCENT POSITIVITY SUCH A CRITICAL METRIC IN A PANDEMIC?❓

(1/36) Plus: thoughts on #COVID19 response thresholds in #Ontario and why #Europe is a crystal ball for #Canada... Mega-thread below. 👇🧵🚨
(2/36) While it may be the daily case numbers that grab the headlines, it’s far from the most important metric to watch when determining the trajectory of COVID-19, as I’ve written before.

(3/36) Instead, we should be focusing on other metrics, like the 7-day rolling average, the number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities and percent positivity.
Read 42 tweets
Jean-Paul R. Soucy Profile picture
16 Nov 20
Some #COVID19 #Canada trends (% change in 7-day avg. vs. 1 week ago): (1/5)

AB: +78.1% 📈 (599.1/day ➡️ 1,067.3/day)
SK: +62.6% 📈 (97.0/day ➡️ 157.7/day)
MB: +34.4% 📈 (299.4/day ➡️ 402.4/day)
ON: +32.1% 📈 (1,096.6/day ➡️ 1,448.6/day)
QC: +15.2% 📈 (1,119.9/day ➡️ 1,290.6/day)
Both #Alberta and #BritishColumbia have had some reporting difficulties of late. I’ve omitted the BC trend in anticipation of tomorrow’s post-weekend report. (2/5)
Some current and emerging hotspots: (3/5)

Far North (SK): +274.4% 📈 (5.6/day ➡️ 20.9/day)
Windsor-Essex (ON): +101.2% 📈 (11.6/day ➡️ 23.3/day)
Waterloo (ON): +98.9% 📈 (25.4/day ➡️ 50.6/day)
Saskatoon (SK): +64.2% 📈 (32.3/day ➡️ 53.0/day)
Read 7 tweets
Jean-Paul R. Soucy Profile picture
21 Oct 20
❗ONTARIO, STOP REACTING TO THE DAILY COVID CASE COUNTS❗

(1/48) Why daily #COVID19 case counts are not the most relevant number and what #Ontario should be paying attention to instead. Mega-thread below. 👇🧵🚨
(2/48) Let’s begin by recapping what daily reported case counts are supposed to represent. When we look at them, we get a picture of what the epidemic looked like 1–2 weeks ago, so any change in the trajectory of the epidemic will take some time to show up in the daily counts.
(3/48) Why? Because it takes ~5 days from time of infection to begin showing symptoms, and then further days to seek testing, get tested, and finally process the test and report the results. This lag is affected by a number of factors, such as the size of the testing backlog.
Read 48 tweets
Jean-Paul R. Soucy Profile picture
21 Oct 20
Watching Dr. Fauci speak at @GairdnerAwards Global Perspectives Panel. "Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases: From AIDS to COVID-19"
Map of emerging infectious diseases. When Dr. Fauci started, this map had one dot: HIV in Africa.
In 2015, Dr. Fauci's number one concern was a novel respiratory pathogen.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @JPSoucy has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @JPSoucy!

Read all threads by @JPSoucy