1. What are Fibonacci numbers? (4 parts) 2. How are they used in Trading? (4 parts) 4. Using Fib Extensions (2 parts) 5. Using Fib Retracements (2 parts) 5. Using Time Cycles (2 parts)
🔹 Fibonacci numbers are a numerical series depicting nature’s expansion
🔹 The same number sequence appears all over throughout nature. i.e.
🔸 The number of petals on a flower
🔸 A snail shell
🔹 Other important properties are the ratios when comparing any number to the number that is found 'X' places to the right:
🔸 0.618- A.k.a the "Golden Ratio" - where X = 1
🔸 0.382 - where X = 2
🔸 0.236 - where X = 3
🔹 It is these Ratios that have a correlation to market movements in terms of price and time cycle
🔹 We use them to provide targets for:
🔸 Price Extensions
🔸 Price Retracements
🔸 Time Cycles
🔹 Firstly we need to talk very basic Wave Theory / Elliot Wave
🔹 While stock market prices may appear random and unpredictable, they actually follow predictable, natural laws and can be measured and forecast using Fibonacci numbers
-- How Fibs are used in Trading? Pt.2 --
🔹 Without going to deep, the basic principle is; waves move in Impulses & Corrections
🔸 Impulse waves (BLACK) are made up of 5 sub waves
🔸 Corrections (RED) are made up of 3 sub waves
🔹 Impulses & Corrections go in both directions
-- How Fibs are used in Trading? Pt.3 --
🔹 Waves are fractal in nature i.e. drill deeper & find the same patterns in a lower degree / time frame
🔹 Trend direction will determine if the impulse's are up or down
🔹 Elliot Wave has a lot more to it which i will cover another time
-- How Fibs are used in Trading? Pt.4 --
🔹 Fib Extensions, Retracements & Time Cycles help predict key price levels
🔹 Extensions, provide price targets
🔹 Retracements, provide areas of support and reversal
🔹 Time Cycles, give some indication of WHEN the wave will complete
-- Using Fib Extensions Pt.1 --
🔹 Common Fibonacci extension levels are 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 200%, and 261.8%
🔹 @TradingView has a Trend-base Fib Extension tool that helps plot levels on a chart
🔹 See below for where to find the extension tool
🔹 Common Fibonacci retracements levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6% and 88.7%
🔹 @TradingView has a Fib Retracement tool that helps plot levels on a chart
🔹 See below for where to find the Retracement tool
🔹 I use Fib retracements to help predict where the next wave opposite to the trend will finish
🔹 For impulse's and correction see the below for details and rules
🔹 A little less know or used form of the Fib Ratios, is to use it to help determine time cycles
🔹 @TradingView has a couple of Fib Time tool that helps plot levels on a chart
🔹 See below for where to find these tools
🔹 I use Fib Time tools to help me determine when i need to start paying more attention to a particular market
🔹 For impulse's and correction see the below for details and rules
🔹From high to low of each impulse, the 23.6 and 38.2 levels have been key support
🔹As in the previous cycle #Bitcoin has based itself around the 23.6 after cycle high
🔹When it breaks it ultimately bases off the 38.2 ~ 20k
-- $BTC Macro Bear Option /3--
Moving Averages:
🔹Similar to the fib levels, there are 2 key Monthly EMAs, the 21 and 55
🔹#Bitcoin based itself off the 21 initially
🔹When it breaks it ultimately heads to the 55 ~ 22k
1⃣ Develop a trading plan
2⃣ Manage risk
3⃣ Start with a demo trading account
4⃣ Be proactive, adapt to the market
5⃣ Control your emotions / Never FOMO
6⃣ Keep a trading journal
7⃣ Trading / Life balance
+Personal habits
-- 1⃣ Develop a trading plan --
🔥Failing to plan is planning to fail🔥
A trading plan is a back tested guide with criteria to enter & exit a trade
🔸Entry and exit levels
🔸Position size
🔸Stop-loss level
🔸Take profit level
🔸Indicators to use to confirm your entry and exit
This thread will cover a few indicators and metrics i will be looking at to help me identify when i should start to sell my #Bitcoin with the potential of a bear market to come.
TLDR: When i am going to sell my #Crypto
🔹Q2/3 2022 @ ~$200k
🔹 Logarithmic or log price scale, represents price spacing on the vertical or y-axis dependent on the PERCENTAGE CHANGE in the underlying asset's price
🔹 Think of it as the log scale shows the rate of change over time
🔹This could take a bit to explain what i am seeing
🔹I am using:
🔸Yearly closes (Red Dots)
🔸Ranges taken from the closes, broken into Phases
🔸A Parabola linking the yearly closes
🔸Elliot Wave for wave structure
🔹The Phases double in Height each year. i.e.
🔸Phase 1 = 1 range height from open to close
🔸Phase 2 = double phase 1 in height*
🔸Phase 3 = double phase 2 in height*
*Gets more parabolic as time goes on
🔹The EW count puts us in the 4th wave of the 3rd
🔹The 4th is looking like a big running flat correction
🔹The 5th if taken as a 1:1 of wave 1, would take us to ~$200K
🔹The W4 correction will be a killer and make every think its over. BUT its NOT!
-- Educational - When is the next “Alt Season”? --
[An 11 Part thread, bear with it.]
1. What is Alt Season? 2. What is #Bitcoin Dominance? 3. How to interpret BTC.D 4. How to trade based on BTC.D pt.1 5. How to trade based on BTC.D pt.2 6. What is TOTAL2?
-- Educational - When is the next “Alt Season”? --
7. How to interpret #TOTAL2 8. How BTC.D and TOTAL2 can be used in conjunction Pt.1 9. How BTC.D and TOTAL2 can be used in conjunction Pt.2 10. What is the current state of play Pt.1? 11. What is the current state of play Pt.2?
-- What is “Alt Season”? --
🔹 A.k.a Altszn, is a part of the #cryptocurrency market cycle when many alt coins “moon”
🔹 "Mooning" is when a coin go up quickly in price
🔹 Basically an Altszn is when the Alts are out performing #BTC against the $