1/6 Since last Sunday, the #bitcoin price went from >$60k to <$50k in a dip that scared some (newer) market participants

Who were selling here, and are they done selling? ๐Ÿณ

A small ๐Ÿงต using @whale_map data to zoom in on the price action of this last week
2/6 The market turnaround started last Sunday (April 18th), when price broke through $60k with increased volume

As can be seen in this ๐Ÿณ outflows chart, a lot of #bitcoin moved that day that was bought by whales on August 3rd, 2020 for ~$11.2k

Looks like (>400%) profit taking
3/6 On Thursday (April 22nd), price also broke down the ~$1 trillion market cap price

On that day, a lot of ๐Ÿณ-owned #bitcoin that were bought on December 22nd, 2020, for ~$23.8k moved

Looks again like (>100%) profit taking - this time by a slightly newer market participant
4/6 Yesterday (April 23rd), the #bitcoin price also broke through $50k in what felt like a mini-capitulation event

Zooming in on ๐Ÿณ movements again, this time there was a lot less action - only some by <1m old whales that bought around $60k and apparently accepted a ~20% loss
5/6 This dip started with older ๐Ÿณs taking profit, creating a cascading effect of profit taking all the way to capitulation by newbie ๐Ÿณs

The good news; the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has completely reset, which means that profit taking is now neutral (which is bullish)
6/6 Furthermore, to close this ๐Ÿงต off, the price action over the past week has created new clusters of large ๐Ÿณ addresses with a fresh new realized price and profit status that may be the ๐Ÿณ HODL'ers of the next leg up - and/or beyond

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More from @dilutionproof

1 Apr
1/18 Monthly #Bitcoin Market Analysis ๐Ÿ“ˆ

In this ๐Ÿงต, I'll take an in-depth look at several on-chain metrics to explore where we are in the cycle, what market players are currently (not) selling, how this impacts the current market supply and speculate where we might be heading
2/18 I'll start by looking at the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) to get a feel for how hot current prices are in the context of its 4-year cycle

In short; prices have heated up quickly, but the ๐ŸŒก๏ธ has consolidated just below the BPT6 Band - just like we saw in 2017
3/18 If you look at popular on-chain metrics that are often used to assess the overall #Bitcoin market cycle, you get a similar picture; we're well underway in this cycle's ๐Ÿ‚ market - but are not at prior-cycle-top levels yet

Charts by @PositiveCrypto's lookintobitcoin.com
Read 18 tweets
1 Feb
1/18 Monthly #Bitcoin market analysis ๐Ÿ“ˆ

This month, I'll share my thoughts on:
1. Where are we in the cycle?
2. Has the correction bottomed?
3. When next run-up?

๐Ÿงต with BPT, MVRV, Reserve Risk, Puell Multiple, SOPR, exchange balances, miner activity, reflexivity & more ๐Ÿ‘‡
2/18 Based on the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) per cycle charts, we are still early in the # of post-halving days and the maximum price ๐ŸŒก๏ธ that was reached

If you correct the BPT for M2 inflation; even more so

Want more BPT? Check out this thread: Bitcoin Price Temperature (...Bitcoin Price Temperature (...Bitcoin Price Temperature (...Bitcoin Price Temperature (...
3/18 If the #Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) or Cross Asset (S2FX) model is correct, we would also expect a further price increase over the next year or so

In comparison to the long-term power law corridor of growth, we are a bit above the modeled value ($19.4k) though Bitcoin Price Temperature (...
Read 18 tweets
30 Dec 20
1/8 Are you also excited about #Bitcoin's future? ๐Ÿ”ฅ

Seven bullish #Bitcoin narratives for 2021:
1) Supply shortage โš–๏ธ
2) Stimulus checks ๐Ÿ’ฐ
3) Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model ๐Ÿ“ˆ
4) Chasing gold ๐Ÿฅ‡
5) Bitcoin ETF ๐Ÿ•ด๏ธ
6) Taproot ๐ŸŒฑ
7) Lightning โšก๏ธ

Thread ๐Ÿ‘‡
2/8 Due to institutional FOMO, an unprecedented # of #Bitcoin were withdrawn from exchanges in 2020, exacerbating the halving-induced supply shortage

Due to #Bitcoin's inelastic supply, a supply shortage means a greater chance at ๐Ÿš€ with new demand ๐Ÿพ

3/8 Any USA citizen that saved their April 15h $1200 stimulus check in #Bitcoin would now have >$5000 (+318%)

With new stimulus checks coming in & more awareness of inflation, it is possible we'll see some buying pressure for hard assets come in soon ๐Ÿ‘€

Read 8 tweets
28 Dec 20
1/6 Since the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) & BPT Bands aren't available on a web-app (yet), I've gotten requests to periodically share updated charts.

As such, this is the first weekly BPT (Bands) update! ๐ŸŒก๏ธ

All (5) charts & interpretations in this thread ๐Ÿ‘‡ ImageImageImageImage
2/6 Based on yesterday's daily closing price, the current #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) is 4.58, which is comparable to the temperatures reached during 2013-Q1 & 2017-Q2 during the previous halving cycles.

Will the BPT run straight towards (at least) 6 again this cycle? ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ Image
3/6 The current (3rd) post-halving BPT trajectory is more similar to the 2nd (r=0.83) than to the 1st (r=-0.16) halving cycle.

However, current ๐ŸŒก๏ธ's are more heated than at the same point in cycle 2. Are we in for a correction, or up for a more steep incline like in cycle 1? ๐Ÿ‘€ Image
Read 6 tweets
21 Dec 20
1/10 A rough prediction using the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) Bands:

If the current #Bitcoin post-halving bull run has a similar growth & volatility as the last one, this cycle could top at around $300k in October 2021 ๐Ÿ‘€

Q&A with interpretation & nuances in this thread ๐Ÿ‘‡
2/10 Q: What Is the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT)?

A: The BPT reflects the relative distance between the #Bitcoin price & its 4-year moving average. High BPT values represent potentially (over)heated price levels. ๐ŸŒก๏ธ

More in this thread & article:
3/10 Q: What are the BPT Bands based on?

A: Technical Analysis:
- BPT0 (blue): the 4-year moving average
- BPT2 (green): both support & resistance levels at key market swings
- BPT6 (orange): resistance level during bull runs
- BPT8 (red): market cycles topped shortly afterwards
Read 10 tweets
20 Dec 20
1/16 Interesting analysis by @btconometrics ๐Ÿ”ฅ

TL;DR: The #Bitcoin market appears to be moving in 4-year halving-related cycles. Based on a power regression using cycle bottoms & tops, this current cycle's top is estimated at $149,053.85.

Thread with summary & some thoughts ๐Ÿ‘‡
2/16 #Bitcoin's largest and most well-known cycle is the halving cycle, which is the result of the block rewards (the newly minted coins that miners receive when they win the rights to create a new block) being cut in half every 210.000 blocks (~4 years).
3/16 If you divide the maximum price of each cycle by its minimum, you get the 'max to min price ratio'.

If you do a power regression on this (n=3) data, you get the attached figure.

Assuming $8,591 is this cycle's bottom, the model suggests that $149,053.85 will be its top.
Read 16 tweets

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