1/6 Since last Sunday, the #bitcoin price went from >$60k to <$50k in a dip that scared some (newer) market participants
Who were selling here, and are they done selling? ๐ณ
A small ๐งต using @whale_map data to zoom in on the price action of this last week
2/6 The market turnaround started last Sunday (April 18th), when price broke through $60k with increased volume
As can be seen in this ๐ณ outflows chart, a lot of #bitcoin moved that day that was bought by whales on August 3rd, 2020 for ~$11.2k
Looks like (>400%) profit taking
3/6 On Thursday (April 22nd), price also broke down the ~$1 trillion market cap price
On that day, a lot of ๐ณ-owned #bitcoin that were bought on December 22nd, 2020, for ~$23.8k moved
Looks again like (>100%) profit taking - this time by a slightly newer market participant
4/6 Yesterday (April 23rd), the #bitcoin price also broke through $50k in what felt like a mini-capitulation event
Zooming in on ๐ณ movements again, this time there was a lot less action - only some by <1m old whales that bought around $60k and apparently accepted a ~20% loss
5/6 This dip started with older ๐ณs taking profit, creating a cascading effect of profit taking all the way to capitulation by newbie ๐ณs
The good news; the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has completely reset, which means that profit taking is now neutral (which is bullish)
6/6 Furthermore, to close this ๐งต off, the price action over the past week has created new clusters of large ๐ณ addresses with a fresh new realized price and profit status that may be the ๐ณ HODL'ers of the next leg up - and/or beyond
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In this ๐งต, I'll take an in-depth look at several on-chain metrics to explore where we are in the cycle, what market players are currently (not) selling, how this impacts the current market supply and speculate where we might be heading
2/18 I'll start by looking at the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) to get a feel for how hot current prices are in the context of its 4-year cycle
In short; prices have heated up quickly, but the ๐ก๏ธ has consolidated just below the BPT6 Band - just like we saw in 2017
3/18 If you look at popular on-chain metrics that are often used to assess the overall #Bitcoin market cycle, you get a similar picture; we're well underway in this cycle's ๐ market - but are not at prior-cycle-top levels yet
This month, I'll share my thoughts on: 1. Where are we in the cycle? 2. Has the correction bottomed? 3. When next run-up?
๐งต with BPT, MVRV, Reserve Risk, Puell Multiple, SOPR, exchange balances, miner activity, reflexivity & more ๐
2/18 Based on the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) per cycle charts, we are still early in the # of post-halving days and the maximum price ๐ก๏ธ that was reached
If you correct the BPT for M2 inflation; even more so
3/18 If the #Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) or Cross Asset (S2FX) model is correct, we would also expect a further price increase over the next year or so
In comparison to the long-term power law corridor of growth, we are a bit above the modeled value ($19.4k) though
1/6 Since the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) & BPT Bands aren't available on a web-app (yet), I've gotten requests to periodically share updated charts.
As such, this is the first weekly BPT (Bands) update! ๐ก๏ธ
All (5) charts & interpretations in this thread ๐
2/6 Based on yesterday's daily closing price, the current #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) is 4.58, which is comparable to the temperatures reached during 2013-Q1 & 2017-Q2 during the previous halving cycles.
Will the BPT run straight towards (at least) 6 again this cycle? ๐คทโโ๏ธ
3/6 The current (3rd) post-halving BPT trajectory is more similar to the 2nd (r=0.83) than to the 1st (r=-0.16) halving cycle.
However, current ๐ก๏ธ's are more heated than at the same point in cycle 2. Are we in for a correction, or up for a more steep incline like in cycle 1? ๐
1/10 A rough prediction using the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) Bands:
If the current #Bitcoin post-halving bull run has a similar growth & volatility as the last one, this cycle could top at around $300k in October 2021 ๐
Q&A with interpretation & nuances in this thread ๐
2/10 Q: What Is the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT)?
A: The BPT reflects the relative distance between the #Bitcoin price & its 4-year moving average. High BPT values represent potentially (over)heated price levels. ๐ก๏ธ
TL;DR: The #Bitcoin market appears to be moving in 4-year halving-related cycles. Based on a power regression using cycle bottoms & tops, this current cycle's top is estimated at $149,053.85.
2/16 #Bitcoin's largest and most well-known cycle is the halving cycle, which is the result of the block rewards (the newly minted coins that miners receive when they win the rights to create a new block) being cut in half every 210.000 blocks (~4 years).
3/16 If you divide the maximum price of each cycle by its minimum, you get the 'max to min price ratio'.
If you do a power regression on this (n=3) data, you get the attached figure.
Assuming $8,591 is this cycle's bottom, the model suggests that $149,053.85 will be its top.