Round two of #WestAfricaWaterPlume vs #EuropeClimate is about begin. As dawn breaks round one continues to play out over Poland.

Meanwhile in the Middle East the 13th consecutive day of #ArabianStorms ovrer the Arabian Peninsula has begun.

#ClimateChange ImageImageImage
If you are new to this very rapidly unfolding, and rather epic story a good place to get up to speed is this #WestAfricaWaterPlume vs #EuropeClimate thread from yesterday.
As the sun went down last night plume driven storms were underway across Spain, France, Italy, Switzerland, Austria Germany and Czechia. Image
Over night a lot of people in central Europe had a noisy night as these storms moved north and consolidated. Here we see the storms crossing the alps, French, Swiss and Austrian from 7-10pm CET.
This shows the consolidated storms progression north through to 1.15am CET this morning.
.. by 5.15am the storm was over Warsaw.
... by the time the sun came up a couple of hours ago it was covering more than half of Poland.
Over 13 hours the storm traveled 1300kms growing, and developing into a powerful low pressure system on way, ImageImage
As of 9am this morning the cloud circulation diameter is now 1000 kms.
The storm is continuing to move northwards rapidly as it rotates relatively slowly.

Importantly, none of what is happening is in the weather forecasts. Weather models have not been able to keep up with the pace of change, nor (I suspect) the complexity of the interactions.

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More from @althecat

4 May
<< Baltic Faceoff >>

These two storms now look fairly evenly matched.

The storm on the left (over the UK) is powered by the North Atlantic, while the one on the right over Russia is powered by the #WestAfricanMonsoon

& bottom left over the Med. a spoiler is arriving.
I didn't see this earlier but the marked triangular bit in the top left of this image is the reason the UK Storm didn't manage to push the Russian Storm off the mat.

That's a jet of airborn water that has somehow managed to find its way both into & out of the Arctic. Image
The Nordic interloper is there at the beginning of the sequence before the sun sets.

These four images show the sequence of events. ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
4 May
I have been watching these two storms, one over the UK (on the left) and one over Russia (on the right) for the last 2.5 hours. They are both big storms.

In that time the smaller UK storm has moved 142.2 kms closer while the Russian one has moved 32.16 kms away. Image
What I am curious about is whether they might merge with each other, and if they do, what it will look like [zoom.earth/#view=55.4,17.…]. They used to be quite a long way away from each other, and the forecasts said they would stay that way.
The much larger Russian one ought to be long gone by now. At least that's what all the computer model's said.
But it has barely moved in the last 36 hours, which is unusual for a storm. Back then it looked more like a whale. [zoom.earth/#view=54.1,36.…] Image
Read 5 tweets
3 May
For me this was a very sad discussion. The first step towards democracy is to hold an election. Unfortunately to do so can be dangerous. But so is not taking that first step.
The path to reaching difficult agreements requires sacrifice. The path to reconciliation requires giving others the benefit of the doubt. And the path to peace requires renouncing violence.
And the path to democracy requires peaceful acceptance of the result of elections.

The outcome of Ethiopia's first election is unlikely to satisfy everyone, and probably won't satisfy a majority. Most elections don't. But it is the 1st step to take to become a democratic nation.
Read 4 tweets
3 May
Today's #ArabianStorms were mainly over the Arabian Gulf. #Qatar #Bahrain and the in the middle of the gulf. And the day also saw a storm begin before dawn.

Today's #Ethiopia and #MiddleEast forecasts follow: Image
The latest CMC and GFS North Africa 10-Day Rain forecasts. ImageImage
Today two streams of monsoon energy appeared to come together over the south end to send a stream of atmospheric moisture to Oman and on to India.
Read 13 tweets
3 May
A Tale of Two Storms.

In pictures.

[Check out #WestAfricaWaterPlume & @althecat for the words....]
Image
Image
Read 40 tweets
3 May
A side by side comparison of the impact on Northern Europe of the...

April 30-ongoing #WestAfricaWaterPlume event (left)

...VS the...

April 17-19 #WestAfricaWaterPlume event (right).
The current plume event has a far larger, longer plume. The area affected by the resulting low pressure system is far larger - and vastly more populated.

So far I have found one news report: informpskov.ru/news/353795.ht…

#Россия #Потоп #РоссияПотоп
Unfortunately its just a preview.
Read 4 tweets

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