1/n. With @Dr_Keefer we covered a lot of ground/angles on @Decouple on history/politics of electricity restructuring.

Thread: annotated US/UK-centric reading list on comparisons & “lessons learned”, with emphasis on future investment for decarbonization

2/n. There are many ways to compare performance "traditional" vs. "restructured" USA states.

An influential analysis by @BorensteinS & Bushnell (2015) argues restructuring did not lower retail prices and was mostly driven by “pursuit of quasi-rents”.

3/n. In a very recent paper, Ken Rose et al (2021) confirm that retail prices have increased in restructured states relative to traditional states, after controlling for a series of other variables...

4/n. Why did some states restructure & others not? Schmalensee (2016) argues Red States benefit from TVA/subsidized federal utilities; "Republicans opposed to socialism in principle seem happy with important role of government enterprises in their States"

5/n. In an overview review piece, Schmalensee (2019) argues that “risks have shifted ...to insufficient investment with reliance on markets” and that “restructured systems will need fundamental change with the advent of renewables"

6/n. @pjoskow (2019) argues that reliance on subsidies/mandates for wind/solar is "incompatible with relying on markets for the rest of the generation portfolio" and that it "requires a separate market compatible with attracting investment"

7/n. "Across the Pond", for the UK experience, Grubb and Newbery (2018), argue that classic energy-only competitive markets are “demonstrably unsuited to cost-effective new investment”

8/n. Newbery (2019) notes UK model worked until “Problems emerged when new capital-intensive generation investment was needed" & recognition that “electricity needs access to low-cost finance that only government-backed or guaranteed finance can assure”

9/9. Why important?
Models show electricity generation needs to double/triple by 2050 to meet climate challenge.
Evidence suggests that "restructured" energy-only generation markets probably CANNOT facilitate this massive, long-term investment.
Alternatives? There are many...

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More from @E_R_Sepulveda

30 Apr
1/n. Who can be opposed to "energy democracy", right?

When writing my 2018 @ccpa article on the Ontario, Canada electricity reforms, I wanted to explore whether the now-revoked Green Energy Act (GEA) had "democratized" electricity supply.

2/n. Cost side of GEA ledger is known (+prices, +budgets, etc.), but could we add "democracy" to benefits side?
Gov't promoted GEA based on Germany, where 50% RE contracts are co-ops+.
In prepping for @Dr_Keefer episode, looked for updated Ontario %

3/3. Data hard to come by; in 2018 I estimated 5% RE contracts were coops.
New PhD calculates only 3.3%, stating "GEEA turned out to be a failure on energy democracy front, continuing...corporate welfare"
So no, the GEA did not "democratize" the grid...
Read 4 tweets
15 Apr 20
1/N: My previous 9-country #COVID19 age-based case analysis was "static" due to data limitations, etc.

In this thread I present a dynamic analysis of case rates for high-risk age groups since the beginning of the pandemic in #Italy, #Spain, #Germany, #Canada & #Chile

2/N: Focus is on 60+ age groups because, due to higher CFRs, these account for 90-95% of all fatalities

To reduce fatalities in current AND future #COVID19 waves, it is critical to understand case dynamics & whether "real" and generalized and if so, what are possible drivers?
3/N: @AndreasShrugged beat me to presenting dynamic analysis for #Germany & started interesting discussion, which can now be generalized based on 4+ countries

F3 presents same data differently (distinct periods, excl <60), with same results - an increase in cases for 80+ group
Read 12 tweets
29 Mar 20
1/N: March 29 snapshot of #COVID19 8-country (CN, KR, IT, ES, FR, DE, US, CA, CL) analysis: age data to March 26; cases to March 28

High-risk age groups (60+) are 75-90% of deaths, but only 15-20% pop; based on data "deep dive", how well have such groups been protected to date?
2/N: As discussed by @drjenndowd, @AndreasShrugged,
@firefoxx66 et al, population structure matters.

F1 shows % of national pop in each of three high-risk age groups:

1) IT/ES/FR/DE are higher risk, with IT highest risk
2) CN/KR/CL are lower risk
3) US/CA have medium risk
3/N: F2 shows % national confirmed cases by high-risk age groups

Testing regimes affects # & distribution of cases, especially in initial phases; with that caveat: F2 is consistent with lower current CFRs in CN/KR/DE & higher in IT/ES/FR. CFRs in US/CA/CL still evolving....
Read 8 tweets
7 Jan 20
Just published article in @CCPA Monitor (ed.@StuJT) analyzing #inequality & low public investment as drivers behind #Chile’s protests calling for economic justice, and how such calls could signal a break in 40-year increase in inequality there & elsewhere


Since October, millions of Chileans have taken to the streets in defiance of their government, to demand change to economic policies first imposed under dictatorship, replace the dictatorship-era constitution, & challenge the state’s harsh security response


Chileans are protesting many types of inequalities & injustices

Income inequality in Chile, as shown by top 1% share of income in Fig.1, has trended higher than other countries, soared during the dictatorship (more than other countries) & has stayed high for last 30 years
Read 10 tweets

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