Edgardo Sepulveda Profile picture
Independent consulting economist. Tweets and writes at Progressive Economics Forum about economic policy and other issues.
15 Apr 20
1/N: My previous 9-country #COVID19 age-based case analysis was "static" due to data limitations, etc.

In this thread I present a dynamic analysis of case rates for high-risk age groups since the beginning of the pandemic in #Italy, #Spain, #Germany, #Canada & #Chile

2/N: Focus is on 60+ age groups because, due to higher CFRs, these account for 90-95% of all fatalities

To reduce fatalities in current AND future #COVID19 waves, it is critical to understand case dynamics & whether "real" and generalized and if so, what are possible drivers?
3/N: @AndreasShrugged beat me to presenting dynamic analysis for #Germany & started interesting discussion, which can now be generalized based on 4+ countries

F3 presents same data differently (distinct periods, excl <60), with same results - an increase in cases for 80+ group
Read 12 tweets
29 Mar 20
1/N: March 29 snapshot of #COVID19 8-country (CN, KR, IT, ES, FR, DE, US, CA, CL) analysis: age data to March 26; cases to March 28

High-risk age groups (60+) are 75-90% of deaths, but only 15-20% pop; based on data "deep dive", how well have such groups been protected to date?
2/N: As discussed by @drjenndowd, @AndreasShrugged,
@firefoxx66 et al, population structure matters.

F1 shows % of national pop in each of three high-risk age groups:

1) IT/ES/FR/DE are higher risk, with IT highest risk
2) CN/KR/CL are lower risk
3) US/CA have medium risk
3/N: F2 shows % national confirmed cases by high-risk age groups

Testing regimes affects # & distribution of cases, especially in initial phases; with that caveat: F2 is consistent with lower current CFRs in CN/KR/DE & higher in IT/ES/FR. CFRs in US/CA/CL still evolving....
Read 8 tweets
7 Jan 20
Just published article in @CCPA Monitor (ed.@StuJT) analyzing #inequality & low public investment as drivers behind #Chile’s protests calling for economic justice, and how such calls could signal a break in 40-year increase in inequality there & elsewhere


Since October, millions of Chileans have taken to the streets in defiance of their government, to demand change to economic policies first imposed under dictatorship, replace the dictatorship-era constitution, & challenge the state’s harsh security response


Chileans are protesting many types of inequalities & injustices

Income inequality in Chile, as shown by top 1% share of income in Fig.1, has trended higher than other countries, soared during the dictatorship (more than other countries) & has stayed high for last 30 years
Read 10 tweets