1/N: March 29 snapshot of #COVID19 8-country (CN, KR, IT, ES, FR, DE, US, CA, CL) analysis: age data to March 26; cases to March 28
High-risk age groups (60+) are 75-90% of deaths, but only 15-20% pop; based on data "deep dive", how well have such groups been protected to date?
High-risk age groups (60+) are 75-90% of deaths, but only 15-20% pop; based on data "deep dive", how well have such groups been protected to date?
2/N: As discussed by @drjenndowd, @AndreasShrugged,
@firefoxx66 et al, population structure matters.
F1 shows % of national pop in each of three high-risk age groups:
1) IT/ES/FR/DE are higher risk, with IT highest risk
2) CN/KR/CL are lower risk
3) US/CA have medium risk
@firefoxx66 et al, population structure matters.
F1 shows % of national pop in each of three high-risk age groups:
1) IT/ES/FR/DE are higher risk, with IT highest risk
2) CN/KR/CL are lower risk
3) US/CA have medium risk
3/N: F2 shows % national confirmed cases by high-risk age groups
Testing regimes affects # & distribution of cases, especially in initial phases; with that caveat: F2 is consistent with lower current CFRs in CN/KR/DE & higher in IT/ES/FR. CFRs in US/CA/CL still evolving....
Testing regimes affects # & distribution of cases, especially in initial phases; with that caveat: F2 is consistent with lower current CFRs in CN/KR/DE & higher in IT/ES/FR. CFRs in US/CA/CL still evolving....
4/N: F3 shows % point diff. between F1 and F2: how cases differ from underlying pop.:
1) In IT/ES/FR cases>pop for 70-79 & 80+ groups
2) DE cases<pop for high-risk groups, KR also does well
3) US/CA are intermediate
4) Although in early stages, CL continues to have cases<pop...
1) In IT/ES/FR cases>pop for 70-79 & 80+ groups
2) DE cases<pop for high-risk groups, KR also does well
3) US/CA are intermediate
4) Although in early stages, CL continues to have cases<pop...
5/N: As an aside.... CL outbreak is still in early phases (behind EU and US/CA), & now has 2k cases, up from 200 in 10d
F9 shows how outbreak, even if starts in young pop, tends to spread to high-risk, unless strong NPI in place; CL still cases<pop; contrast with cases>pop in ES
F9 shows how outbreak, even if starts in young pop, tends to spread to high-risk, unless strong NPI in place; CL still cases<pop; contrast with cases>pop in ES
6/N: For diff. perspective, F4 shows case rates (x/1000 age group pop) for high-risk age groups:
1) IT/IS have highest rates: 3 for 70-79 & 4 for 80+, while FR/DE are lower
2) Current low US/CA/CL rates will increase, by how much? Low rates in contained CN/KR show what's possible
1) IT/IS have highest rates: 3 for 70-79 & 4 for 80+, while FR/DE are lower
2) Current low US/CA/CL rates will increase, by how much? Low rates in contained CN/KR show what's possible
7/N: F5 is estimate of # confirmed cases in high-risk groups.
Other than "mature-phase" KR/CN, F5 could provide (when compared to week-ago data) an independent "1/2/3 week-ahead" indication of new hospitalizations and/or fatalities (based on age-specific hospital & CFRs)
END
Other than "mature-phase" KR/CN, F5 could provide (when compared to week-ago data) an independent "1/2/3 week-ahead" indication of new hospitalizations and/or fatalities (based on age-specific hospital & CFRs)
END
@threadreaderapp unroll
