Thread by @RijoMJohn

19 Nov: #India crossed 9M reported #COVID19 cases & 132202 deaths. 4.4L active cases
👉1M new cases & 12.1K deaths added in the past 23 days. The previous 1L cases were added in 18 days.

*⃣Follow this data thread to know important trends national, state & district level*⃣
1/

👉Cases growing at 0.44% (it was 0.57% at 8M)
👉Steady fall in 7-day avg. daily new cases seem to have halted for now
👉Daily active cases still in -ve territory
👉Daily tests averaged 9.3L past 7 days (down from 10.5 at 8M)
👉Daily deaths ~500 (It was 511 at 8M)
2/

👉Growth of tests slightly above that of cases now
👉Daily TPR at 4.2% and has been <5% level for 30 days now.
👉only 5.88 (45.4%) of the 12.96 crores tests so far are RT-PCR
👉Testing (whether RT-PCR or Rapid Antigen) need to increase significantly
3/

👉Numbers of tests & reported cases have been disproportional
👉#Maharashtra reported ~20% of all cases while did only 7% of tests
👉#UttarPradesh & #Bihar together did 22.4% of all tests, yet reported only 8.3% of cases
👉It appears tests are not done where it really matters
4/

👉The reported cases as percentage of total population is 1% to 2% range in most of south India
👉A good part of central and north so far has only reported <0.5% of its population as covid positive
👉May be lack of proper surveillance or ineffective testing or under reporting
5/

👉A relatively low mortality rate of 1.47% at the national level
👉High variation across states.
👉#Maharashtra, #Gujarat, #Punjab & #sikkim having highest Covid mortality
6/

👉Trends in mortality rates for both closed (recovered+deceased) & total cases
👉Mortality rate seem to be increasing in many states: #Kerala, #Delhi, #Odisha, #Bihar, #Chhattisgarh,
#Assam, #Jharkhand, #Gujarat, #Himachal, #Manipur , #Arunachal & #Sikkim
7/

👉Variations in mortality rates is even more stark as we go down the district level.
👉#Ahmedabad & #Ludhiana have mortality rate >4% while many other districts in the top 50 are at 3% or more.
8/

👉Trends in daily test per million per day & test positive rate across states with at least 11K reported cases
👉Daily avg. testing seem to have reduced in several states even as the test positivity rate has gone up
👉This is quite clear in UP, Rajastan, Haryana, MP, J&K
9/

👉Daily new cases are surging in some states like #Delhi, #Rajasthan, #Gujarat, MP, #Punjab, #Haryana, #chandigarh
10/

👉Most of the action is now happening in the national capital region
👉Several districts in this region are seeing increasing number of daily new cases. Yet, testing has not caught up there
11/

👉Top 50 districts in India in terms of total cases
50.6% of cases & 58% of deaths now come from these districts
👉This share has been steadily dwindling
#Delhi, #Pune, #Malappuram, #Ahmedabad, #Raipur & #Jaipur reporting new daily highs
(12/n)

-India should ramp up testing significantly (PCR or Antigen)
-Community transmission is real whether govt. acknowledges or not
-Tracking & Tracing extremely pain staking & costly at this scale
- increased testing help isolate more cases, track immediate contacts & limit spread