19 Nov: #India crossed 9M reported #COVID19 cases & 132202 deaths. 4.4L active cases
👉1M new cases & 12.1K deaths added in the past 23 days. The previous 1L cases were added in 18 days.

*⃣Follow this data thread to know important trends national, state & district level*⃣
1/ Image
👉Cases growing at 0.44% (it was 0.57% at 8M)
👉Steady fall in 7-day avg. daily new cases seem to have halted for now
👉Daily active cases still in -ve territory
👉Daily tests averaged 9.3L past 7 days (down from 10.5 at 8M)
👉Daily deaths ~500 (It was 511 at 8M)
2/ Image
👉Growth of tests slightly above that of cases now
👉Daily TPR at 4.2% and has been <5% level for 30 days now.
👉only 5.88 (45.4%) of the 12.96 crores tests so far are RT-PCR
👉Testing (whether RT-PCR or Rapid Antigen) need to increase significantly
3/ Image
👉Numbers of tests & reported cases have been disproportional
👉#Maharashtra reported ~20% of all cases while did only 7% of tests
👉#UttarPradesh & #Bihar together did 22.4% of all tests, yet reported only 8.3% of cases
👉It appears tests are not done where it really matters
4/ Image
👉The reported cases as percentage of total population is 1% to 2% range in most of south India
👉A good part of central and north so far has only reported <0.5% of its population as covid positive
👉May be lack of proper surveillance or ineffective testing or under reporting
5/ Image
👉A relatively low mortality rate of 1.47% at the national level
👉High variation across states.
👉#Maharashtra, #Gujarat, #Punjab & #sikkim having highest Covid mortality
6/ Image
👉Trends in mortality rates for both closed (recovered+deceased) & total cases
👉Mortality rate seem to be increasing in many states: #Kerala, #Delhi, #Odisha, #Bihar, #Chhattisgarh,
#Assam, #Jharkhand, #Gujarat, #Himachal, #Manipur , #Arunachal & #Sikkim
7/ Image
👉Variations in mortality rates is even more stark as we go down the district level.
👉#Ahmedabad & #Ludhiana have mortality rate >4% while many other districts in the top 50 are at 3% or more.
8/ Image
👉Trends in daily test per million per day & test positive rate across states with at least 11K reported cases
👉Daily avg. testing seem to have reduced in several states even as the test positivity rate has gone up
👉This is quite clear in UP, Rajastan, Haryana, MP, J&K
9/ Image
👉Daily new cases are surging in some states like #Delhi, #Rajasthan, #Gujarat, MP, #Punjab, #Haryana, #chandigarh
10/ Image
👉Most of the action is now happening in the national capital region
👉Several districts in this region are seeing increasing number of daily new cases. Yet, testing has not caught up there
11/ Image
👉Top 50 districts in India in terms of total cases
50.6% of cases & 58% of deaths now come from these districts
👉This share has been steadily dwindling
#Delhi, #Pune, #Malappuram, #Ahmedabad, #Raipur & #Jaipur reporting new daily highs
(12/n) ImageImage
-India should ramp up testing significantly (PCR or Antigen)
-Community transmission is real whether govt. acknowledges or not
-Tracking & Tracing extremely pain staking & costly at this scale
- increased testing help isolate more cases, track immediate contacts & limit spread

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More from @RijoMJohn

28 Sep
27 Sep: India crossed 6M reported #COVID19 cases & 95574 deaths. Only 9.6L active cases
👉Beyond the rosy recovery rates, follow this thread to know important trends upto dist. level that matters
👉1M new cases & 12K deaths were added in the past 11 days

👉Cases growth (1.5%) has decreased considerably over a week
👉7-day avg. daily cases showed some decline & is beginning to look up again
👉Daily active cases rebounding after being in -ve territory for few days
👉Daily tests average 10.8L last week
👉Daily deaths ~1095 (2/n)
👉Growth of tests barely above that of cases now
👉Daily TPR at 8.2% and has shown a marginal decline over the past 2 weeks
👉52% of all tests so far are Rapid antigen
👉Most states do not report test results by type of tests
Read 13 tweets
24 Sep
➡️The discrepancy between the daily testing numbers reported by ICMR & states have been growing steadily & has reached very high levels (2L+) of late!
➡️National TPR needn't be an avg of TPRs across states, as a result
➡️Lot of questions remain unanswered
(1/n) Image
Follow this thread here which gives plausible reasons but, none conclusive. A summary of important questions below:
1) Are states & ICMR including/excluding certain types of tests & not following a uniform standard in reporting?
2) Are states adding duplicates/retests to its total while ICMR doesn’t?
3) Is ICMR withholding certain tests/test types which states report?
4) Are states ‘deliberately’ inflating reported numbers in the interest of showing low TPR?
5) Only @ICMRDELHI can clarify these

Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
👉15 Sep: India reported 50 lakh+ #COVID19 cases & 82091 deaths
👉Read this detailed thread for important trends national, state & district level that matters
👉10 lakh new cases & 12456 deaths were added in the past 11 days
👉The next 10 lakh cases expected in ~10 days!
(1/n) Image
👉Cases growing at the rate of 2%
👉7-day avg. daily new cases shows a minor decline
👉Daily active cases falling (growth 1.5%)
👉Tests growing at 1.98% & 50% tests are Rapid antigen
👉Daily tests averaged 10.9L past 7 days
👉Daily deaths ~1150 level (2/n) Image
👉Growth of tests keeping at or below that of cases which means tests aren't adequate
👉Avg. daily TPR 8.5% despite using ~50% rapid antigen tests
👉Clearly, this means a lot of undetected cases out there
👉Most states don't report test results by test types
(3/n) Image
Read 11 tweets
11 Sep
👉10 Sep: India crossed 4.5M reported #COVID19 cases & 76304 deaths
👉This thread shows important trends national, state & district level
6.3 lakh new cases & 7735 deaths were added in the past one weeks
About 7.4M tests were done during this period (TPR 8.6%)
(1/n) Image
👉Cases growing at the rate of 2.1% & remained steady over a week
👉Average growth of active cases increased to 1.9%
👉Daily tests averaged 10.6L past 7 days
👉Daily deaths ~1100 level (2/n) Image
👉Tests & cases growing almost at the same rate
👉Of the 5.4 crore tests done so far only about 2.7 crores are RT-PCR
👉Most state daily bulletins do not provide break-up of test results by test type
(3/n) Image
Read 9 tweets
5 Sep
👉India crossed 4M reported #COVID19 cases & 69635 deaths
👉How India got here? Follow this thread for important trends national, state & district level
👉10 lakh new cases & 13707 deaths were added in the past 2 weeks
👉About 13M tests during this period (TPR 7.7%)
👉Cases growing at 2.2% & remained steady over a week
👉7-day avg. daily new cases shows no sign of slowing
👉Daily active cases rebounding (growth 1.7%).
👉Tests growing at 2.4%
👉Daily tests averaged 10.5L past 7 days (47% tests are now RADT)
👉Daily deaths ~1000 level (2/n)
👉Growth of tests > that of cases
👉Daily TPR trending down again
👉Rapid antigen tests constitute approx 47% of daily tests
👉In some states like Delhi & Kerala it's ~70%
👉state should report both tests & +ves by test types in their daily bulletin which most don't do
Read 13 tweets
30 Aug
👉29 Aug: India crossed 3.5M reported #COVID19 cases & 63657 deaths
👉About 5 lac new cases & 6811 deaths added in the past 7 days
👉Daily TPR 8.2%
👉Follow this thread to understand important trends national, state & district level
My👍to #Mann_Ki_Nahi_Students_Ki_Baat Image
👉Cases growing at 2.2% compared to 2.4% a week back
👉7-day avg. daily new cases shows no sign of slowing
👉Daily active cases rebounding (growth 1.2%)
👉Tests growing at 2.3%.
👉Daily tests averaged 9L past 7 days
👉Daily deaths ~1000 level (2/n) Image
👉Growth of tests keeping above that of cases
👉Daily TPR beginning to go up again
👉Rapid antigen tests take >50% of testing in many states including Delhi, Kerala, Andhra, Karnataka etc.
👉Some are not utilizing their full RT-PCR capacity
(3/n) Image
Read 13 tweets

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