Reading what is going on with these #AfricanWaterPlumes and their impact on Europe is getting a lot more difficult now. Here's a bunch of informed guesses. Informed by the animation that follows.
While its not immediately obvious the plume on the far right - that has done the work to get everything moving again and break the #BalticFaceoff - is powered by moisture from both the Atlantic and North Africa, merging on the Spanish border with France.
These simulation weather maps (CMC model) are of the situation as it is now. The UK now Danish storm is surprisingly dry and it hasn't moved that much the dominant influence on events is actually the combined flow of moisture you can see in the center of the picture.
This animation shows #AfricaPlume activity through to Saturday. As you can see at that point a more traditional Atlantic driven water system becomes dominent but the way they interact wil be interesting.
And here's the ECMWF version (above is CMC), note that the map is a different size - the simulated scenario through to Saturday is very similar to the CMC.
To conclude this bulletin its worth noting that the Atlantic is chock full of moisture at the moment. And the potential storm you see top right in this image is the storm which is heading to the UK in a few days time.

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More from @althecat

6 May
This 16 day Northern Hemisphere simulation is very trippy, but its also getting very interesting. First of all you can see how much of an impact this very wet and active Atlantic is about to have on the Arctic.

But there are also two cyclones in it.
Actually make that three. Two in the Pacific.... Image
... and one in the Arabian Sea. Image
Read 8 tweets
6 May
It is not acceptable for the EU @eaas_eu and the U.S. @StateDept to simply look away from the upcoming imperiled Ethiopian democratic transition due to prejudice and personal views.
addisstandard.com/news-joint-int…
The circumstances of what is happening in Ethiopia, and Tigray, make the presence of election observers simultaneously difficult (for the observer missions) and vital.

The @eaas_eu and @JosepBorrellF decision to withdraw was clearly premature. addisstandard.com/news-alert-eth…
The decision of the @eaas_eu in the very complex circumstances leading up to this extraordinarily important election smack of hand-wringing and cowardice. I very much doubt that this decision would have been made under the former special representative.
Read 11 tweets
6 May
Good morning... is a grey day today. I haz brolly. Image
Sometimes the sun rises but you don’t see it. I am quite used to this as a Wellingtonian. Image
It’s set to rain here shortly, which will be very welcome. And possibly photogenic. In the meantime here’s a macro, rapidly zooming out view from above. ImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets
5 May
I am beginning to think that this sudden climate change business is getting a bit out of hand. Especially as nobody seems to be noticing except those in Yemen and Somalia watching their cars being washed away down the roads and rivers. Image
I have been tweeting a lot about the weather in the Horn of Africa lately.

Including asking for images of flooding from eyewitnesses.

I received a response on April 24th the day after the Norwegian Refugee Service published there article about droughts.
Read 17 tweets
5 May
The Horn of Africa this morning @NASA worldview, got a great view and more pictures will be included in today's rainfall forecast thread for #Ethiopia #HoA and the #MiddleEast.

Today's forecasts follow. Image
Here's the first. A view mostly of #Sudan, capturing both the #WhiteNile and #BlueNile as well as part of the Nile below Sudan on its way to Egypt. On the right hand side Lake Tana can be seen through the clouds.

If you look very carefully you may be able to see #GERD. Image
This view which captures the area below that in the previous image has borders on it to make it easier to see where the abundant green in the firsy image in this thread is located. The rains of the past few weeks appear to be doing God's work in the region. Image
Read 17 tweets
4 May
Incredibly #BalticFaceoff - between #UKStorm, now pummeling both UK and NW Europe, and #RussiaStorm - is going into the night unresolved with both storms nearly stationary and dumping shed-loads of rain, and another #AfricanPlume is trying to join the party [look at Italy].
These storms are far from harmless:
- #UKStorm has some wicked wind and is wired into the North Atlantic.
- & While Russia has been quiet about its "Biblical"rain event, they cannot be happy about it.
Meanwhile, if you look at it in its full context it is quite a sight.

It nearly takes up half a hemisphere.,
Read 5 tweets

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