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Laurie Garrett Profile picture
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5 May, 6 tweets, 5 min read
Three important @CDCgov studies just released, about the future of the U.S. #COVID19 epidemic.
First, CDC assembled 6 independent modeling teams to forecast the May to July epidemic, w/various assumptions about #vaccine uptake, mask use, opening up…
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2/ All 6 see the US epidemic peaking in May, and then steadily declining over the summer. What differs dramatically is the RATE of decline, hinging on vaccination rates & social distancing relaxations.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
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2b/ “These scenarios show ongoing efforts to ^ #vaccination coverage & maintain physical distancing, masking, isolation & quarantine are warranted. As the #COVID19 #pandemic evolves & more data become available, future projections can provide improved publ hlth response.”
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3/A 2nd @CDCgov study, of so-called LA variants, B.1.427 & B.1.429, looks at spread in Colorado this winter. In Jan these #SARSCoV2 variants were abt 2% of the State’s #COVID19 new cases. By early March, 22%. Variants resist bamlanivimab treatment. MORE
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
4/The 3rd @CDCgov+ NYCDOH study is of the B.1.526 #SARSCoV2 variant that rapidly ^'ed in NYC & resembles the South African & Brazilian viruses. It went from a handful of cases in Jan to about 25% of #COVID19 in early April, competing w/other variants. MORE
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7… Image
5/ The very good news about the NYC B.1.526 #COVID19 variant is, “Preliminary evidence suggests that, to date, B.1.526 does not lead to more severe disease or increased risk for infection after vaccination.“
So, feliz #CincodeMayo2021 , Nueva York!

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

Laurie Garrett Profile picture
28 Apr
Images from the horrendous #COVID19 catastrophe in #India must start with #SuperSpreader events in early April. Religious festivals were not dampened, and there was no mask enforcement.
#COVID19India
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2/ And political campaigning was pursued vigorously in early April, with huge throngs and no mask requirements.
#COVID19 #SuperSpreader
MORE
3/ Fueled by a double-mutant variant strain of #SARSCoV2 on top of those #SuperSpreader events, India's #COVID19 epidemic soared at terrifying speed, all over the country, but especially in New Delhi. Burned-out healthcare workers feared for their lives.
MORE
Read 7 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
28 Apr
Saagar Enjeti claims the public health syst is contributing to "anti-vax" sentiment across the country. And at 5:08 in this vid, he attacks me. His claim? Masks & social distancing aren't key to lowering #COVID19 risk, mixed messages frm @CDCgov suck.
MORE
2/ Enjeti calls me "anti-science".
Self-described "populist right" advocate -- a politics buff, not a scientist or MD. thewire.in/world/american…
He has never been a fan of masking and social distancing, and he argues that the plateau we've reached, downturn in many States..
MORE
3/...is due to the #COVID19 #vaccines.
He blames @POTUS @CDCgov & #TonyFauci for mixed messages leading people to opt for masks etc instead of vax.
The problems w/his argument are many. 1: There is a large overlap between anti-maskers & anti-vaxers. In Dec2020 polls it was..
MORE
Read 17 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
27 Apr
.@POTUS @JoeBiden
"Today, in <100 days, more than 67% -- 2/3rds of our seniors -- are now fully vaccinated & more than 80% of seniors have had at least 1 shot. That effort has resulted in a drop of 80% in deaths among American seniors, a 70% drop in hospitalizations."
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2/ "So instead of losing 1000s of seniors each day, we're saving 1000s of lives, and more & more as each day goes by.
And, by the way, the proportion -- the proportion of seniors who have been vaccinated is essentially equal between white and seniors of color."
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3/ "Starting today, if you're fully vaccinated, & you're outdoors...you no longer need to wear a mask.
I want to be absolutely clear: If you're in a crowd, like a stadium or at a conference or a concert, you still need to wear a mask even if you're outside."
MORE Image
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
27 Apr
The @WhiteHouse #COVID19 presser now...U.S. giving #India 60M doses @AstraZeneca vaccines. U.S. "really hopeful decline" of 7% in new cases compared to last week. If you are vax'ed says @CDCDirector you can
- no masks in sml outdoor gatherings
- see below
Fauci is now discussing variants vs vaccines
what works?
P.1 Brazil variant
Read 5 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
26 Apr
OK, Santorum, derivations of these words, please:
Minnesota (mni-sota)
Dakota (a Sioux nation)
Michigan (mishigami)
Chicago (Shikaakwa)
Erie (an Iroquoian nation)
Huron
Takoma (*təqʷúməʔ)
Cheyenne (a Plains nation)
Mississippi (Ojibwe misiziibi)
Oklahoma (okla homa)
MORE
Wyoming (xwé:wamənk)
Alabama (Alibamu)
Missouri (the Missouri nation)
Indiana (Algonquin for "Indian land")
Alaska (alaxsxaq)
Arizona (ali ṣona-g)
Kansas (kką:ze)
Miami (the Mayaimi nation)
Idaho (ídaahę́)
Iowa (ayuxwe)
Massachusetts (Massachusêuck)
Nebraska (ñįbraske)
MORE
New Mexico (Mēxihco)
Ohio (ohi:yo’)
Tennessee (Tanasi)
Texas (táyshaʔ)
Utah (yúdah)
Illinois (ilenweewa)
Potomac River (Patawomeck)
Topeka (dóppikʔe)
Housatonic River (usi-a-di-en-uk)
Manhattan (man-ǎ-hǎ-tonh)
Witchita (a Plains nation)
Milwaukee (millioke)
MORE
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
26 Apr
OK, to all those trashing my tweet on the national downturn in new cases & relationship to #COVID19 #vaccines, let's do the numbers. Drawing from @CDCgov & @CovidTracker data, for key States, compare high daily cases in latest surge, latest tally & vax rates per 100K pop.
THREAD
2/This is doses admin'ed, so majority are 1-dose/persn.
Example: MARYLAND
Reported 1,084 new cases on April 13, down to 906 on 4/24 -- a 16% drop.
And it's latest vax rate is 74,859:100K, which is above average.
46% of adults have had 1 or both doses vax.
MORE
3/Few States have vax rates as high as MD.
More
MICHIGAN
New cases 4/13 = 10,083. 4/24 = 5,052
48% drop
Vax rate = 67,787/100K
41.2% adults have had 1 or 2 doses
CALIFORNIA
3/25 = 2,485 cases; 4/24 = 2241 -- a 9% drop
Vax rate 72,865/100K; 46.8% adults at least 1 dose
MORE
Read 10 tweets

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