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8 May, 12 tweets, 5 min read
A lengthy backgrounder story from @VOA - the U.S. Government's funded international news service - on the #GERD dam dispute.

US Tries to Help Resolve Ethiopian Dam Dispute voanews.com/middle-east/us…
Also on U.S. Envoy Feltman's peace efforts, here is a Reuters report on the Sudan meetings held yesterday. swissinfo.ch/eng/sudanese-o…
The report contains very little that is new (see below 1 paragraph) but the full statement from the Sudanese Head of State contains quite a lot more (attached tweet).
The biggest news of the day came last night in the form of an AP report based on a video recorded last month by Abune Mathias, the sixth patriarch of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church. See @AJEnglish 's version of the report here. aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/8/…
See also... @addisstandard's coverage here....addisstandard.com/news-ethiopian…
US Envoy Jeffrey Feltman was in Sudan again today it seems. In addition to Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan he is meeting with PM Abdalla Hamdok and the foreign and irrigation ministers according to AP. apnews.com/article/sudan-…
On Thursday Envoy Feltman was in Eritrea where he met with President Isaias Afwerki after which the Eritrean Information Minister @hawelti tweeted two tweets about the meeting.
As Envoy Feltman has now visited all of the parties to the #GERD dispute and all the known participants in the #Tigray conflict logic suggests that his next visit will be to Ethiopia.

According to his schedule his visit to the region ends next Thursday May 13.
So far the State Department itself and Envoy Feltman have been extremely spare in providing information about progress of the mission.

There are no updates on the Ethiopia page of the State Department >> state.gov/countries-area… and no Qs were asked at yesterday's briefing.
As Envoy Feltman has another five days left in his trip, in theory after visiting Ethiopia Prime Minister @AbiyAhmedAli tomorrow he could visit the other four nations once again if necessary, engaging in shuttle diplomacy.
However this is pure speculation.

All we know is this: On the eve of Envoy Feltman's arrival in Ethiopia - the stage has been set with four fairly neutral (arguably positive) statements, indicating willingness of national parties to seek a peaceful resolution of their disputes.
Finally earlier today the Ethiopian PM's office issued a statement providing an update on conflict and humanitarian crisis in Tigray.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
9 May
The two computer models which are known for their prowess in predicting cyclones continue to forecast cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea in coming days.

The question of whether these cyclones will form hangs over today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.
This image shows the Arabian Sea area where the GFS and ECMWF models are both expecting cyclone formation within the next 10 days, at different times and in different places. Image
Here's the GFS 9th May model forecast for today showing formation starting on Friday and landfall five days later.
Read 14 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
8 May
Halftime update On US HoA Special Envoy Jeffrey Feltman's 10 Day mission:

On the eve of his arrival in Ethiopia the stage has been set with four fairly neutral statements, indicating willingness of all national parties to seek a peaceful resolution of their disputes. #GERD
P.S. A claim is being made that Feltman has also spoken to the exiled leader of Tigray's TPLF, which initiated the war in Nov. by attacking Ethiopia's garrison in Mekelle.

However this news has not been reliably verified.
A late breaking story from @TheNationalNews provides some significant new information, i.e. that the AU President is also engaging in a shuttle diplomacy effort to resolve the #GERD dispute between Egypt Sudan and Ethiopia.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
8 May
Today's Rainfall Forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow in this thread.

Below you see the Ethiopian Highlands from this morning and including most of the #BlueNile #GERD #Abay watershed . The large storm on the left is mostly over Sudan. On the RHS is #Lalibela.
Here you see an animation of the storm starting up this morning.
This satellite image (@NASA Modis ) shows the area in the Arabian Sea which computer models indicate could generate two cyclones in coming days. You can see the latest GFS forecast runs for those cyclones in the attached thread.
Read 16 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
8 May
A massive storm over the Ethiopian Highlands directly over the #GERD today. @NASA Modis landsat image taken this morning.
And this is the area off the Horn of Africa where the simulation models think a Cyclone may begin to form towards the end of the coming week.
Two low centers are currently modeled by the GFS, ECMWF and KMA models to form Wednesday/Thursday the southernmost of which is forecast to track in a southerly direction.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
7 May
We have a shift to on-shore westerly wind in the Horn of Africa region today, which, I confess means little to me beyond being a new thing in the data. But it seems significant, as there is more water over the sea.

Today's rainfall/cyclone forecasts for the region follow.
Here's a view from this afternoon & the direction of travel is pretty stable. For me onshore winds bringing wet air towards mountains means lots more rain. If anyone is aware of the usual timing of this switch I would be interested.
Here are African 10-Day Accumulated rain forecasts. All of which now show the impact of the two Cyclones which are now in the forecast window.
Read 16 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
7 May
I like @Keir_Starmer, he’s a nice guy, and clearly he thinks that being a sober and sensible person who takes responsibility for things is what the voters want. And maybe one day it will be. It’s fine for me now. But....
... the thing is it’s anachronistic in this day and age of political showpony-ship. And I expect his problem is that many voters just don’t get him. They don’t recognise his kind of politics and think it a bit weird.
They are used to politicians who are passionate (Corbyn) or articulate (Blair) or Gruff (Brown) or charming (@jacindaardern NZ) or combative (@ScottMorrisonMP Aus) or imperious (Merkle and Macron).
Read 4 tweets

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