The two computer models which are known for their prowess in predicting cyclones continue to forecast cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea in coming days.

The question of whether these cyclones will form hangs over today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.
This image shows the Arabian Sea area where the GFS and ECMWF models are both expecting cyclone formation within the next 10 days, at different times and in different places.
Here's the GFS 9th May model forecast for today showing formation starting on Friday and landfall five days later.
The ECMWF has formation a day later next Saturday, off the coast of Kerela India and landfall imminent on Wednesday 19th.

Neither the CMC or KMA models show formation at all in their latest runs. NOTE: Cyclone formation is a complicated process and may not happen at all.
But cyclone or no cyclone the, the combination of intense thunderstorm activity in the Arabian Sea and on-shore winds may well result in increased rainfall over coming days as shown in these 10-day forecasts for North Africa from GFS, CMC (10 day) and KMA (12 day) models.
Here are today's rainfall forecasts:

First up, May 9th, 10-day accumulated rain forecasts, for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa from the @ECMWF, GFS and KMA weather models.

#Sudan #SouthSudan #Ethiopia #GERD #Africa #HornOfAfrica #DesertRain #Somalia #Somaliland
+ Here are 3-day accumulated rain forecasts, to Midnight Wednesday, for #Ethiopia and the #HornOfAfrica, again from the @ECMWF, GFS and KMA weather models.

The rain pattern has changed with more of a rain focus in the West Ethiopian Highlands - the #GERD #Abay watershed.
It's been a quiet day for #ArabianStorms today with only modest thunderstorms along the Red Sea cost of #SaudiArabia. The strong winds across the Eastern Arabian Peninsula from the #HornOfAfrica to #Oman have finally died down.

Pictures: Caspian Sea, Aral Sea and Arabian Gulf.
While the rains gave stopped the video imagery keeps coming from @Arab_Storms, here an amazing video of Oman Mountain waterfalls.
Here are today's, May 9th, 10 day accumulated rain forecasts, for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF (both showing a Cyclone), CMC & KMA weather models.

@Arab_Storms

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
May 9th, 3 day accumulated rain forecasts (to Wednesday at Midnight), for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

@Arab_Storms
#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
And the final rainfall forecasts for tonight for the #MiddleEast are ultra-long range computer model forecasts, these provide a view of what a cyclone may bring >> The last 3 GFS (16 Day) model runs + the (12-Day) KMA model (no Cyclone).
الله أعلم
And finally, a reminder that no cyclone has yet formed. If one does official warnings and information will be provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center from the U.S. Navy here >> metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

/ENDS

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More from @althecat

8 May
Halftime update On US HoA Special Envoy Jeffrey Feltman's 10 Day mission:

On the eve of his arrival in Ethiopia the stage has been set with four fairly neutral statements, indicating willingness of all national parties to seek a peaceful resolution of their disputes. #GERD
P.S. A claim is being made that Feltman has also spoken to the exiled leader of Tigray's TPLF, which initiated the war in Nov. by attacking Ethiopia's garrison in Mekelle.

However this news has not been reliably verified.
A late breaking story from @TheNationalNews provides some significant new information, i.e. that the AU President is also engaging in a shuttle diplomacy effort to resolve the #GERD dispute between Egypt Sudan and Ethiopia.
Read 6 tweets
8 May
A lengthy backgrounder story from @VOA - the U.S. Government's funded international news service - on the #GERD dam dispute.

US Tries to Help Resolve Ethiopian Dam Dispute voanews.com/middle-east/us…
Also on U.S. Envoy Feltman's peace efforts, here is a Reuters report on the Sudan meetings held yesterday. swissinfo.ch/eng/sudanese-o…
The report contains very little that is new (see below 1 paragraph) but the full statement from the Sudanese Head of State contains quite a lot more (attached tweet).
Read 12 tweets
8 May
Today's Rainfall Forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow in this thread.

Below you see the Ethiopian Highlands from this morning and including most of the #BlueNile #GERD #Abay watershed . The large storm on the left is mostly over Sudan. On the RHS is #Lalibela.
Here you see an animation of the storm starting up this morning.
This satellite image (@NASA Modis ) shows the area in the Arabian Sea which computer models indicate could generate two cyclones in coming days. You can see the latest GFS forecast runs for those cyclones in the attached thread.
Read 16 tweets
8 May
A massive storm over the Ethiopian Highlands directly over the #GERD today. @NASA Modis landsat image taken this morning.
And this is the area off the Horn of Africa where the simulation models think a Cyclone may begin to form towards the end of the coming week.
Two low centers are currently modeled by the GFS, ECMWF and KMA models to form Wednesday/Thursday the southernmost of which is forecast to track in a southerly direction.
Read 5 tweets
7 May
We have a shift to on-shore westerly wind in the Horn of Africa region today, which, I confess means little to me beyond being a new thing in the data. But it seems significant, as there is more water over the sea.

Today's rainfall/cyclone forecasts for the region follow.
Here's a view from this afternoon & the direction of travel is pretty stable. For me onshore winds bringing wet air towards mountains means lots more rain. If anyone is aware of the usual timing of this switch I would be interested.
Here are African 10-Day Accumulated rain forecasts. All of which now show the impact of the two Cyclones which are now in the forecast window.
Read 16 tweets
7 May
I like @Keir_Starmer, he’s a nice guy, and clearly he thinks that being a sober and sensible person who takes responsibility for things is what the voters want. And maybe one day it will be. It’s fine for me now. But....
... the thing is it’s anachronistic in this day and age of political showpony-ship. And I expect his problem is that many voters just don’t get him. They don’t recognise his kind of politics and think it a bit weird.
They are used to politicians who are passionate (Corbyn) or articulate (Blair) or Gruff (Brown) or charming (@jacindaardern NZ) or combative (@ScottMorrisonMP Aus) or imperious (Merkle and Macron).
Read 4 tweets

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