The striker was ~16 yrds from the centre of goal & at a pretty wide angle (hard to see from the photo) so #DeGea’s decision to stay deep made the finish very difficult as he didn’t rush out & gift a simple dink/rounded finish
The great thing about #DeGea’s positioning here is that if the striker takes a touch rather than shooting he’s far enough off his line & prepared & ready to engage then, only once he knows the striker is so close to goal that he can no longer trust his reactions to make the save!
#DeGea’s ability to not panic & rush out during long range 1v1s has been a strength of his for many years & I have mentioned it in many of my previous tweets.
If you are interested in the statistically optimum strategy a GK can employ during a 1v1 situation see the thread below!
For the people asking why it worked for #DeGea but not #Henderson:
1. While the situations are very similar initially, & #Henderson does initially make a good & correct decision to wait, once #Salah takes the extra touch #Henderson needs to engage as you cannot wait forever!
2. #Salah is a very good striker & backed his touch to be good enough that it wouldn’t allowed #Henderson to close him down much so #Salah didn’t take the shot early while the Fulham striker took the shot early as more often than not that is what non-elite strikers will do.
This statistically derived diagram is a good rule of thumb for GKs if the striker is clear through 1v1 you should only engage (if you want to statistically maximise your chances of making the save) when they take a touch which takes them inside the grey region, otherwise wait!
For those saying it was a simple save & every #PremierLeague GK would easily make it:
That is only true if they made the initial decision to hold deep!
See my thread below about #Ederson, a top class PL GK, who regularly struggles to make the right decision in this situations!
After showing us how a GK can maximise their chances of saving a close range 1v1, #Schmeichel has just show how us how a GK can minimise their chances of saving a long range 1v1!
By engaging early he allows Wilson to easily round him with 1 touch!
He needed to wait for longer!
If #Schmeichel waits inside his 6 yard box for #Wilson’s touch, #Wilson then has a decision to make:
1. Shoot from 17yrd knowing defenders are track back.
2. Take a touch knowing he will bring it closer to goal but also closer to the GK.
Regardless of what decision #Wilson makes #Schmeichel will have a higher probability of making the save than he would have if he rushes out & engages early like he does.
1. If #Wilson shoots #Schmeichel’s deep position will maximise his reaction time & thus his save probability.
There are 2 crucial decisions which made this save possible:
• The decision to engage early -> minimised the distance to the ball thus maximised the goal area covered!
• The decision to spread -> spreading further maximised the goal area covered!
#Schmeichel quickly realised the 1v1 was going to be from close range & he wouldn’t be able to react to the shot if he stayed deep & thus he needed to rush out & form a premeditated barrier
Without this quick decision he wouldn’t have gotten close enough to ASM to make the save!
Even once he gets out to ASM it could still be a goal but #Schmeichel’s excellent spread technique means he fills a huge portion of the goal & manages to get a toe on the ball & deflect it out for a corner.
Using a different barrier technique would’ve likely resulted in a goal.
Expected Save% for an avg #PL GK who faced the same shots as #Pickford in that time = 69.0
I understand why people think that #England’s #1 should be better than a middle of the road PL GK but the abuse he gets is just crazy!
Also regarding the #England #1 shirt, the main reason he has it is because currently #Southgate believes that being an average shotstopper is outweighed by the fact he is a level above any other English GK when it comes to distributing the ball, especially when under pressure!
#Henderson has outperformed #DeGea when it comes to shotstopping 🔄
Despite criticism #Ramsdale#Pickford & #Guaita have performed at a roughly average top flight level 👀
Explanation of ExSaves:
ExSaves are calculated by looking at every shot a GK faces & using the shots distance, angle, trajectory, final location, the number of defenders in the way + other things & using historical data to find the probability that an avg PL GK makes the save...
...Therefore as a rough example a shot from 40yrds at a tight angle that goes down the middle of goal with all the teams defenders behind the ball may have an ExSave of 99% whereas a central 1v1 from 10yrds fired into the bottom corner may have an ExSave of 10%.
His 2nd 1v1 save was a nice spread!
I loved the fact he backed off & didn’t commit himself when #Mbappe ran in 1v1 as he knew #Mbappe was too far from goal to trouble him then as soon as he squared it to #Neymar he realised the shot was now in the engage zone & he then rushed out
If you are wondering what I am talking about in terms of “block”, “spread”, “engage some” etc.
Here I will compare #Henderson’s cross claiming & sweeping (the two branches of shot prevention) so far this year to #DeGea’s & discuss how this has affected #ManchesterUnited’s defence.
I will use my shot prevention model as sadly mainstream models miss many important actions!
Sweeping:
#Henderson’s sweeping has been highlighted after his tidy display vs #THFC & it wasn’t a one off!
So far this year for #ManchesterUnited he has prevented 11 opposition chances occurring by sweeping which corresponds to preventing 0.15 ExG/90 (#PL avg is 0.10 ExG/90)