Thank you @gpapak @alexstubb @BrigidLaffan for hosting me as a speaker in the excellent @STGEUI @EUI_EU executive training seminar on #NextGenerationEU. Here are 5 issues I highlighted in my presentation, and that I think it will be worth keeping an eye on in coming months ⬇️
What are countries prioritising? Looking at some of the #NRRPs published so far, spending areas are largely driven by the targets on green and digital, but priorities (the largest single spending items) vary. Italy stands out for prioritising infrastructure investment ⬇️
How effective will the investment be in creating jobs? Estimates vary. Spain is the country where the expected number of new jobs per million of euros invested is largest, #Italy - despite investing the largest amount - seems to expects the most moderate job creation ⬇️
Will Next-Gen strengthen EU strategic autonomy? We lack full visibility on countries' planned investment in the areas identified by the @EU_Commission as strategic for Europe’s interests, but filling this table will be key to link #NextGenerationEU to EU industrial policy ⬇️
How cross-border is #NextGenerationEU going to be? Investment within Important Projects of Common EU Interest (IPCEIs) would be key to the aggregate EU-level impact of NRRPs and to ensure EU-level coherence of national projects. On this aspect, information is still partial ⬇️
What comes next? Most of the details that are key to the implementation phase (milestones, indicators, timeline etc) will be the output of the Commission's assessment due in June, which will leading to the Council Implementing Decision. Here's how that assessment looks like ⬇️

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More from @SMerler

16 Nov 20
Three very important votes in #coreper today. Despite threats by 🇭🇺and 🇵🇱 to veto the EU budget if this Regulation passed, the Rule of Law (RoL) Regulation passed. 🇭🇺 and 🇵🇱 vetoed the Own Resources Decision (ORD). So what happens now? (thread)
1) First, if no agreement is found on ORD, we fall back on the previous MFF, which obviously didn't include RRF. BUT the new RoL mechanism will apply to all EU spending, hence also to the carried over MFF. Cohesion & CAP money for 🇭🇺 🇵🇱 will now be scrutinised on RoL grounds.
2) Meanwhile, rest of EU could simply copy-paste the RRF text into an ad hoc intergovernmental Treaty (like the ESM one) and take it out of the EU budget. It would require some technical tweaks, like setting up an SPV to issue rather than having the EU do it, but it is feasible.
Read 6 tweets
3 Nov 20
It's #ElectionDay in an unprecedented election in an unprecedented year. I think this chart offers the clearest and most synthetic picture of where the perfect political storm scenario could come from: it's all in the timeline mismatch. ⬇️ 1/
Biden's lead is stronger in swing states (notably Pennsylvania and Michigan) that are unlikely to be called tonight because they do little pre-processing of postal ballots. Swing states Trump could win (Florida and NC above all) have long pre-processing and will be called. 2/
Add to this that the in person vote has become a completely partisan issue in this election, because of COVID. So it could very well look like the in person vote is leaning red in 'Biden states' such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, tonight. Voters self-selection at work. 3/
Read 5 tweets
9 Sep 20
🔎As the 🇬🇧 government is set to introduce its widely debated Internal Market Bill, Britannia seems to have moved from 'ruling the waves' to 'waiving the rules'. Why and what lays ahead? (Alert: long thread)1/
As we wrote in this ⬇️piece last year, the NI Protocol negotiated by Johnson achieved the remarkable combination of leaving the Prime Minister in a better political position at home, while putting the country in a worse economic position vis-à-vis 🇪🇺2/ algebris.com/policy-researc…
The NI protocol negotiated by Theresa May foresaw a temporary arrangement (the backstop) where the need to avoid trade-related checks at the Irish border was met by setting up a single EU-UK custom territory. For this to be possible ... 3/
Read 19 tweets
5 Sep 20
Il problema di #BrainDrain italiano in 2 grafici (ht @Tagliapietra_S). I ricercatori 🇮🇹 sono i secondi più premiati con grants ERC, ma meno del 40% dei vincitori è di stanza in università 🇮🇹. Di questi temi abbiamo scritto con @APRForum e @Tortugaecon qui media.algebris.com/algebris_polic…
🇮🇹 storicamente ha una bassa % di popolazione con istruzione terziaria, e in particolare sotto-produce capitale umano nelle aree che guideranno crescita e sviluppo in futuro (e.g. STEMs ICT). Ciononostante spendiamo solo ~0.3% PIL su istruzione terziaria
Inoltre, in Italia fare l'università "non paga": dati OCSE mostrano che il tasso di rendimento interno dell'investimento in istruzione terziaria in 🇮🇹 è molto basso. Per questo indicatore siamo penultimo nell'OCSE (appena davanti alla Turchia)...
Read 8 tweets
26 Aug 20
📊 There has been a lot of talk about #COVID19 summer 2nd waves in Europe. But I think the country we should look at as a leading indicator of transitioning into winter is Australia 🇦🇺. Two words on why (usual caveat applies: I am not a virologist nor an epidemiologist) 1/
What we are seeing in European summer 2nd waves is a big increase in cases with (for now) stable deaths numbers. This is unlike what we had in March/April and there are a lot of factors contributing to it that have been explained by experts (age profile, better knowledge etc). 2/
The 2nd wave in 🇦🇺 however has come with a significant increase in daily new deaths, which are currently 4x where they were at peak 1st wave (see 📊 above). Differently from Europe, 🇦🇺 had its 1st wave in summer and is having its 2nd wave in winter (being southern hemisphere) 3/
Read 5 tweets
21 Jul 20
🔎After reading the 68 pages of Council conclusions, here are m 2 cents on the #EUCO #NextGenerationEU deal 1/
The total amount of funds available under #NextGenerationEU remains 750bn as in the original EC proposal, but the composition changes: grants fall from 500bn to 390bn while loans increase from 250bn to EUR 360bn. But the composition of cuts matter 2/
⬇️Here is a comparison of program allocations as per the original proposal and the current deal. While the grants in the Recovery Fund (RRF) has been preserved, the cut in grants has concentrated on programmes that would have financed truly European public goods. 3/
Read 15 tweets

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