Thread by @JJSchroden

Comments on #Afghanistan from ⁦@PentagonPresSec⁩’s #DOD presser today in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…

Q: The #Taliban have made some significant gains in recent weeks & even as recently as past weekend…especially in the North. Is @SecDef considering recommending a slowdown in the withdrawal or other changes to minimize a chance of an early collapse of the Afghan forces? 2/n

MR. KIRBY: I would say w/o speaking specifically to the #Taliban advances you spoke to, as @SecDef has said, the withdrawal is on pace. It is a dynamic situation & we've said that from the very beginning, which means that he, the chairman, & Gen McKenzie, are constantly… 3/n

…looking at the pace we're going at & the capabilities we have that we're going to need throughout to complete the withdrawal. & so as we've said from the very beginning, while there is a schedule we are mindful that that schedule could fluctuate and change… 4/n

…as conditions changed too. So I can't speak to any specific recommendations he's making about the #Taliban advances. But I can tell you that he's looking at the situation every day w/a fresh set of eyes to see if the pace that we're setting is the appropriate pace… 5/n

…for the kinds of capabilities that we think we need to again conduct a safe and orderly retrograde. 6/n

Q: But as he looks at it now today, does he see something different than he saw two weeks ago? In other words that make him think something different has to be done? 7/n

MR. KIRBY: Everyday the situation in #Afghanistan changes as the #Taliban continue to conduct these attacks & to raid district centers as well as the violence, which is still too high. I mean everyday there's a fresh set of data to look at… 8/n

…that helps inform his discussions with military commanders and eventually whatever changes might come of that. 9/n

Q: OK. And one last thing then on that -- has he received recommendations from either General McKenzie or @Commander_RS to change the approach? 10/n

MR. KIRBY: I'm not going to speak to the specific discussions that he's having w/his operational commanders about the situation on the ground, but again, & I understand where the question's coming from - it is a dynamic situation & we said from the outset… 11/n

…that we're going to treat it as such, in that if there need to be changes made to the pace or to the scope & scale of the retrograde on any given day or in any given week, we want to maintain the flexibility to do that. What's really critical here… 12/n

…is nothing has changed about 2 things: 1) we will complete the w/drawal of all US forces from #Afghanistan, w/the exception of those left to protect the diplomatic presence; 2) it’ll be done before early Sep per @POTUS orders. Those 2 things are constant & won't change. 13/n

Q: Is @SecDef any closer to understanding the definition of over the horizon than on April 16th? 14/n

MR. KIRBY: I'm not sure I understand the question. There's never been a confusion about the definition of what over the horizon means. I'm not sure what you mean. 15/n

Q: What I mean is are there basing agreements in negotiation planning. Is there anything more that can be said as to how the United States can be able to provide over the horizon support than was known back in April when it first brought up as a possibility? 16/n

MR. KIRBY: There's still active discussion going on inside #DOD actually at the @StateDept to look at how we will actualize over the horizon #counterterrorism capabilities. Certainly @SecDef supports the diplomatic effort that's ongoing right now… 17/n

…to see if there are basing solutions that could happen in and around the region. I'm not aware of any assurances that we've received to date but I know that @StateDept’s hard at work on that. 18/n

…He's also tasked Gen McKenzie to look at what sorts of other over the horizon capabilities we have existing in the region & how can we best exploit those. The other thing I'd say & I said this last week is that we tend to forget that we already do have… 19/n

…over the horizon capability when it comes to the #counterterrorism threat in #Afghanistan. Is it robust enough? Is it sustainable enough over the long term? Well, that's what we're looking at. Well, you know that the secretary extended the USS Eisenhower in the region… 20/n

…We deployed a bomber task force to the region & there are other facilities, bases; in the Middle East that can be of some service. So nobody's discounting how difficult this is. But as @SecDef said, difficult does not mean impossible… 21/n

…and that we have the ability right now to reach any scrap of earth that we believe we need to should the risk warrant it.

Q: So no further progress has been made then? 22/n

MR. KIRBY: I don't have anything more to announce but I do think it's important to remember it's not like we're starting from zero. We have a capability over the horizon right now, as you and I speak. 23/n

Q: I mean is #DOD planning for the support for the special immigrant visa applicants. Is there anything more on that?

MR. KIRBY: I don't have anything additional to add from what we've said before. 24/n

Q: Could you speak about the contractors? There are some reports about the possibility of keeping some contractors there, but they will be paid by the Afghan Government instead of the U.S. Government. Is that something that is discussed? 25/n

MR. KIRBY: I think there's a range of options that we're looking at for how to continue to provide contractual support for the Afghan forces, specifically the Afghan Air Forces. We've come to no final conclusions about what that's going to look like… 26/n

…We're very actively working our way through that right now.

Q: So you -- you are confirming it is ...

MR. KIRBY: We are looking at a range of options. I'm not at liberty to confirm any specific one right now, but again, our support for the Afghan forces… 27/n

…once the retrograde is complete will largely be financial & it will be, in terms of contractual support, designed to help them logistically & in a maintenance perspective, WRT their air forces. But it'll be largely over the horizon as well as contractual support… 28/n

…I don't know of any specific other options that are being considered, but again, I think we haven't come to any final conclusions, and we're looking at a range of different options. 29/n

Q: Over the weekend, @SecDef and Defense Minister Carter had a phone call. Is there a deal on protecting the Kabul airfield? 30/n

MR. KIRBY: I think you heard the national security advisor on Sun speak to the meeting between @POTUS & Pres Erdogan where #Turkey agreed to take the lead role in terms of security at the airport. There are still details to be worked out. There’s a lot more work to be done… 31/n

…They have indicated that they have will need some support from the United States and international community and we're working our way through that and that phone call over the weekend was in line with those discussions. 32/n

Q: Is the United States ready to provide it financial, logistic support to the ...

MR. KIRBY: Again, we're still working our way through exactly what the support would look like. We don't have final answers on that right now. 33/n

Q: Is there a plan for General  -- I mean, Secretary Austin to be part of the discussions or the meetings between the Afghani president and @POTUS? 34/n

MR. KIRBY: I don't have any scheduling announcements to make with respect to the secretary and President Ghani's visit on Friday and, you know, if and when I do will certainly let you know. 35/n

Q: Does the mission to advise and assist Afghan forces in their fight against the #Taliban still exist? And is that something that the secretary has to consider as he follows through with the other missions that the president has, given ... 36/n

MR. KIRBY: As we said before, so long as we have the capability in #Afghanistan, we'll continue to provide assistance to Afghan forces. But as the retrograde gets closer to completion, those capabilities will wane and will no longer be available to be used in that way. 37/n

…As you & I speak, we are still providing a measure of support in that regard. But again, that will change over time & as we complete the withdrawal, the mission will be the mission assigned by @POTUS, which is to provide an over the horizon #counterterrorism capability… 38/n

…to prevent attacks on the homeland and to continue to support the Afghan forces but from, again, a largely financial perspective. 39/n

Q: In this building there is a term that we hear a lot, an inflection point. Does that mean that there'll be an inflection point where the US can no longer provide that mission? & are we at that point now or close to it, which may be a reason why the @SecDef may be there? 40/n

MR. KIRBY: Certainly there will come a point where those types of capabilities are simply no longer available to @Commander_RS to be able to provide. I would defer to him in terms of what that timing looks like. I'm in no position to guesstimate right now… 41/n

…when that's going to happen, but certainly there's going to be at a time where we've reached that point, and again it's really for him to decide in consultation, of course, with General McKenzie and the secretary… 42/n

…& as I tried to explain, we're taking a look at this every single day. What's the situation on the ground? What capabilities do we have? What add’l resources do we need to move out of #Afghanistan & at what pace? & all of these decisions are being made in real time. 43/n

Q: So does that mean that General Miller and then therefore Secretary Austin have to look at the whole approach in #Afghanistan in terms of you're looking at daily looking at your situation.

MR. KIRBY: Sure. 44/n

Q: Does that mean that, OK, we have to look at this and determine how will this affect the pacing and how will it affect the stability of the government of inside #Afghanistan after the U.S. departs? 45/n

MR. KIRBY: I think the best way to answer the question, unsatisfying though it may be, is that we take into account a whole range of factors as we continue to move through the retrograde. But again, two things are not changing… 46/n

…We will be out of #Afghanistan with the exception of whatever presence is required to protect our diplomatic mission there and that is still being worked, and we will be out of Afghanistan by early September. Those two things are not changing. 47/47