Thread by @JJSchroden

In this issue of Survival: Global Politics & Strategy, @LaurelMillerICG brings some hard truths about Biden's decision to withdraw from #Afghanistan. Some highlights to follow... 1/n

tandfonline.com/doi/epub/10.10…

"The ‘ending forever war’ slogan may be in vogue among critics of involvement in #Afghanistan, but it is hard to imagine that, had Biden believed that truly crucial goals were at stake, he would have declared that time was up simply because it was taking too long to achieve them"

"The problem was not that American involvement in the war was endless; it was that the US found itself unable to end its involvement on the terms that it preferred..." 3/n

"...either extinguishing the insurgents militarily, or getting them to lay down their arms through negotiation – and that American leaders had for too long resisted acknowledging as much." 4/n

"Biden has now effectively decided that it no longer matters greatly to US interests–if it ever did–whether the #Taliban is in power in #Afghanistan...Deciding to end that presence is tantamount to admitting that, for the US, defeat is an undesirable but tolerable outcome." 5/n

"Whether or not the US’ security interests in #Afghanistan will be served after its withdrawal, following a 20-yr investment in combatting the terrorist threat from bases there, it is jarring that the pull-out has gotten under way before the US has alternative means in place" 6/n

"The withdrawal decision was also an explicit rejection of the idea that the United States’ military presence gave the US necessary leverage to promote a negotiated settlement of the conflict...the leverage argument no longer has any salience, if it ever did." 7/n

"Biden’s decision shows that he has judged the American expenditure of blood and treasure in #Afghanistan as only partly ‘worth it’. The US achieved the strategic marginalisation, though not the complete elimination, of #alQaeda in AFG..." 8/n

"...But by deciding that the #Taliban’s potential return to power other than through a negotiated settlement is tolerable, Biden determined that the #counterterrorism achievement did not require the larger war effort against the TB, or at least not the last 10 yrs of it..." 9/n

"...Whether that assessment turns out to be correct depends on whether the #Taliban will keep a lid on #alQaeda & other groups, as it has promised; whether the US will do so from afar, regardless of who governs the country; or whether that lid matters so much after all." 10/n

"Any plausible future looks bleak for Afghans–the people for whom the war really does seem to be endless...one measure of whether the 20-year US effort in #Afghanistan was worth it will be whether the US left AFG, if not at peace, at least better off than it found it..." 11/n

"...That depends on which results of the American effort last through the trying times ahead." 12/12