Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: @usairforce Acting Sec, John Roth, yesterday told Congress that for now the over-the-horizon capability to support #Afghanistan will be from the existing footprint that the USAF has in the region & I'm wondering if that means there haven't been any inroads made... 2/n
...w/potentially new locations to move US forces to provide that over-the-horizon capability?

MR. KIRBY: We already have an over-the-horizon #counterterrorism capability there & other parts of the world, & we are already using that OTH capability in #Afghanistan. 3/n
...You all reported on the presence of an aircraft carrier. Well the aircraft from those carrier air wings have been conducting missions from the sea & into #Afghanistan, & as well we have existing regional bases & facilities to assist us in that kind of effort... 4/n
...& I think that's what the acting sec was speaking to, that we are already using fixed-wing assets from inside the region & out of #Afghanistan to enact this kind of capability. It doesn't mean that's the end all be all, and it doesn't mean that we aren't going to try... 5/n
...to explore other options, & we are. & #DOD is actively supporting diplomatic efforts to discuss potential options in other places in that part of the world. I don't have any specific announcements to make or agreements to announce today, but we are actively pursuing... 6/n
...additional options, but again I want to come back to the main point which is that we already know how to do over-the-horizon, and we already are enacting over-the-horizon kind of capabilities in #Afghanistan. 7/n
Q: Should we understand that we are looking at more deployment & more access to GCC countries around these areas?

MR. KIRBY: I'm not going to get into specific discussions of who our diplomats are talking to & what that might look like. We already have a robust footprint... 8/n
...in the Middle East that we can rely upon & draw upon. We are relying & drawing upon to help us with this retrograde. So there are capabilities already existing in the region that are quite agile, quite nimble, quite effective... 9/n
...But in terms of what it's going to look like going forward, again, I'm not going to get ahead of a diplomatic process. 10/n
Q: Does this go hand-in-hand w/the content of the readout of the @SecDef conference w/Mohammed bin Salman last week in Saudi Arabia?

MR. KIRBY: I would not draw the line between that conversation & that readout & basing & over-the-horizon capabilities... 11/n
...That the readout we offered after that call was accurate for the purpose of that call. I wouldn't read more into it than that. 12/n
Q: Unfortunately #Taliban increased their attack on everyday Afghan people, dying in #Afghanistan. And @NATO general director was here. Did you discuss anything about AFG? 13/n
MR. KIRBY: We certainly did. Secretary General @jensstoltenberg was here. We issued a read out of it & in that read out talked about the fact that #Afghanistan was absolutely on the agenda when they met. @SecDef & the Secretary General reaffirmed our commitment... 14/n
...to doing what we can to help our resolute support partners as they retrograde themselves out of #Afghanistan. & so to the degree we can be supportive & helpful in that, the @SecDef made sure that the secretary general knew that... 15/n
...There was also a reaffirmation by both leaders that as the secretary general very eloquently put it. We went in together, we changed our operations together throughout the last 20 years, we adjusted together and we're going to go out together. 16/n
Q: On #Afghanistan, do you have anything on the deadly shooting yesterday of the 10 mine clearing workers in Baghlan Province, specifically that the perpetrators belong to #ISIS and that the #Taliban helped the aid workers in the aftermath of the attack? 17/n
MR. KIRBY: I don't have anything on that. If you'll allow me to, I will take the question and we'll get you a response back. 18/18

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More from @JJSchroden

10 Jun
In this issue of Survival: Global Politics & Strategy, @LaurelMillerICG brings some hard truths about Biden's decision to withdraw from #Afghanistan. Some highlights to follow... 1/n

tandfonline.com/doi/epub/10.10…
"The ‘ending forever war’ slogan may be in vogue among critics of involvement in #Afghanistan, but it is hard to imagine that, had Biden believed that truly crucial goals were at stake, he would have declared that time was up simply because it was taking too long to achieve them"
"The problem was not that American involvement in the war was endless; it was that the US found itself unable to end its involvement on the terms that it preferred..." 3/n
Read 12 tweets
8 Jun
Comments on #Afghanistan in today's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: Considering that @CENTCOM is saying they're not going to provide % any longer on #Afghanistan troop & equip withdrawal, I was wondering if there's any progress on getting us either DLA or some type of briefing on some of the things that can be discussed about the w/drawal? 2/n
And my second Q is has @SecDef had any discussions with #Turkey about security at the airport in #Afghanistan and do you see negotiations progressing on that issue? 3/n
Read 22 tweets
7 Jun
I’ve gotten a lot of questions recently about how the #ANDSF might fare after the US withdraws from #Afghanistan. I’m going to put some thoughts on that in this THREAD. 1/n
First, a recap, as I’ve written about this before. In JAN, I published this net assessment of the #ANDSF vs the #Taliban, in which I concluded the latter would have a slight military advantage after US advisors left. 2/n ctc.usma.edu/afghanistans-s…
That conclusion was largely due to the #Taliban’s advantages of cohesion & financial self-sustainability, & not being as numerically outnumbered as most people think. But I acknowledged some key #ANDSF advantages, the most notable of which is air power. 3/n
Read 16 tweets
1 Jun
ICYMI, last week I published an article with @Diplomat_APAC titled “Will #Afghanistan Collapse When the US Withdraws?” Since the article is behind a paywall, I’ll summarize some of my main points in this THREAD. 1/n

thediplomat.com/2021/05/will-a…
For the article, I was asked to explore what might happen in #Afghanistan in the year after the US withdraws. To do so, I found it instructive to revisit the years immediately following the Soviet withdrawal & to compare/contrast to the situation today. 2/n
I’ve seen people making superficial comparisons of these two eras to predict impending doom, but a detailed comparison reveals both striking similarities and distinct differences between the two, which should inform our thinking about the future of #Afghanistan. 3/n
Read 31 tweets
26 May
Points on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: Gen Milley has recently mentioned that securing Kabul Airport will be essential for keeping embassy presence not just for the US but for other countries after the withdrawal is completed & that there could be an int'l force assembled to do that... 2/n
...I wondered whether @SecDef agrees w/this & whether he's been talking to @NATO partners or others about organizing such a force.

MR. KIRBY: Certainly the secdef recognizes the key hub that is the airport there in Kabul & the impact that will have... 3/n
Read 29 tweets
25 May
Interest items on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
.@SecDef spoke w/#Pakistan's COAS, Gen Bajwa, to discuss shared regional interests & objs. During the call, the sec reiterated his appreciation for PAK's spt for the #Afghanistan peace negotiations & expressed his desire to cont to build on the US-PAK bilateral relationship 2/n
Q: Getting back to #Pakistan, its Foreign Ministry put out a statement today ruling out the possibility of any US mil bases for the post-withdrawal from #Afghanistan #counterterrorism effort. Is there anything that the US is looking for right now from PAK... 3/n
Read 20 tweets

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