Today's recent rainfall update. 24 hours rainfall across Horn of Africa and Eastern Sahara. There are now reports of flooding in Sudan, which had very heavy rainfall yesterday.

#Ethiopia #Abbay #GERD #DesertRain
And a live satellite image of the same area from @zoom_earth
And a three day 72hour satellite rainfall estimate for the same area. The green areas over Ethiopia's highlands show rainfall of 2-3 inches (50-75mms) over this period.
Further west the West Africa Monsoon is bringing unusually high level of rains to northern parts of Chad, Niger and Mali. Climate data via Wikipedia [Src. earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Clim…]
Earthwise climate data for Niger. earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Clim…

In the red (arid desert) area (BWh) around 35mms of rain is expected. According to @Meteoblue 10-75mms has fallen in the past 72 hours.
This is a rain forecast plot for the same area showing 72 hours rainfall till Saturday midnight (from tomorrow) as the rain band moves west Nigeria sees significant rain and Mali's rains move north.
Climate data for Mali predicts around 27mm for the red area in an average July. Here we see 5-20mms of rain over 72 hours. earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Clim…
According to forecasts a big burst of precipitable water is growing in this area as jet-stream winds carry wind south from the Mediterranean over Egypt and Libya.
The animation above shows PWAT anomaly, i.e. the level of variation form normal areas of water patterns at this time of year. This animation shows a view of the raw PAWT data. Rainfall forecasts show significant rainfall in Mali and Mauritania in coming days.
Watch this space. I will be keeping an eye on this. In terms of the climate change implications of all of this it is worth having a read about the "Sahara Pump Theory". en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahara_pu….
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More from @althecat

8 Jul
As the UNSC met tonight to discuss the #GERD storms continued to form over Ethiopia's highlands the source of the water which is currently filling the dam.

Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
During the UNSC meeting. Ethiopia's water minister explained how this works. "The filling of the dam is part of the construction process.... When the dam is filled the water either flows over the dam or through the bottom outlets."
The Minister later spoke to media :

Q: (@AJEnglish): Why don't you stop filling the dam?

A: All dams are filling. Why? Because it is the rainy season. In fact it is good to protect from floods. We have bountiful water. It doesn't hurt anyone.
Read 19 tweets
7 Jul
Excerpts from a statement issued (to the Black Caucus in the US Congress), about #سد_النهضة .
“The #GERD will help improve the water supply & relieve pressure on the Nile River, which supplies the vast majority of the country’s fresh water. Ethiopia faces a drought that is expected to directly affect nearly 20% of its population. ...
In addition to the locust outbreak that has devoured more than 80,000 acres of crops in recent months. The GERD will contribute in regulating the country's water and reducing sediment, expanding ag enterprises, increasing hydroelectric production, and providing flood control.
Read 5 tweets
7 Jul
On day 2 of official #GERD filling we have glimpse through the clouds and what looks like a nearly full GERD lake in a recent photograph taken after the spillways were commissioned this year.

Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
This morning's rainfall update thread is attached here.

The thread also looks at a major #DesertRain event to the west of the Horn, over Sudan, Chad and Niger where August/September like rains appear to have come early.
Here's an update from this afternoon with satellite estimated rainfall over the last 24 hours showing 14-35mms of rain over the #Abbay basin.
Read 20 tweets
6 Jul
This complicates things still further in Tigray. But it is certainly a good thing that they are alive.

Captured Ethiopian government soldiers reach Tigray capital – in pictures. theguardian.com/world/gallery/…
This is a very interesting read. Neatly identifying the critical issue. But perhaps overplaying the risk of resumption in conflict a little.

theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
One gets the impression from @SecBlinken’s latest statement that he thinks the Ethiopians blew up the Tekeze Bridge. Which is needed to enable humanitarian access to Tigray.
Read 9 tweets
6 Jul
Over 24hrs 25-60mms rain has fallen over all three Nile tributaries with the heaviest falling over the #Abbay in Ethiopia's highlands which feeds the #GERD. Here we see an image of storms starting up this morning.

Rain forecasts will follow.

Thread contains rainfall update.
I jumped the gun calling the beginning of #GERD filling on1 July - as the big rainy season began.
Official news of filling came yesterday in the form of an objection to the filling from Egypt after being notified by #Ethiopia that it is underway.
#GERD filling is expected to be less than 13.5 Billion Cubic Meters as time ran out to raise the dam to the height needed to hold this amount of water.

When the filling is completed spilling over the center of the dam will resume as you can see in this image below from 2020.
Read 25 tweets

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