Thread by @althecat

This complicates things still further in Tigray. But it is certainly a good thing that they are alive.

Captured Ethiopian government soldiers reach Tigray capital – in pictures. theguardian.com/world/gallery/…

This is a very interesting read. Neatly identifying the critical issue. But perhaps overplaying the risk of resumption in conflict a little.

theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…

One gets the impression from @SecBlinken’s latest statement that he thinks the Ethiopians blew up the Tekeze Bridge. Which is needed to enable humanitarian access to Tigray.

Ethiopia said TPLF blew the bridge but in the end it probably doesn’t matter that much as an agreement between the ENDF and TPLF will be needed to resume aid.

Taking aid through occupied Amhara will likely be necessary, and doing so will enable inspection which Ethiopia needs.

The Tekeze river seems likely to become the front line, the ceasefire line, until extremely complicated and difficult negotiations can be completed - hopefully quickly. Which will require compromise from both ENDF and TPLF.

The simplest solution might be a prisoner swap incentivised via a power and internet agreement which also opens a humanitarian aid corridor - the only thing both sides agree on.

However both sides would need to agree. The rushing of troops to the frontline is not a good start.

But nor is it credible militarily. It seems likely the TPLF would like a break in fighting too, no matter what they say, and boosting their defenses symbolically makes sense, also it fits their MO, propaganda with flair.

I could be completely wrong. But maybe this is what @SecBlinken is really up to. Talking tough to Ethiopia to help him to broker a quick settlement with the party that hasn’t yet agreed to a ceasefire.

Meanwhile for the TPLF the clock is ticking. If they stick to their absurd demands for a ceasefire there won’t be one, and they will find themselves fighting a war under a blockade.

There is an easy way and a hard way to end this. Next move TPLF.