On day 2 of official #GERD filling we have glimpse through the clouds and what looks like a nearly full GERD lake in a recent photograph taken after the spillways were commissioned this year.

Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
This morning's rainfall update thread is attached here.

The thread also looks at a major #DesertRain event to the west of the Horn, over Sudan, Chad and Niger where August/September like rains appear to have come early.
Here's an update from this afternoon with satellite estimated rainfall over the last 24 hours showing 14-35mms of rain over the #Abbay basin.
Here's the @NASA Modis satellite image from this morning (which contained the glimpse of the #GERD in the OP). To the west of the Horn there is a very large and growing area of rainfall which is about to get stronger.
Today's big picture contains all the usual elements. Black Sea low. West European storms and of course the Indian and West African Monsoons and the latest daily #ArabianStorms.
Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 7th through July 18th.

All models are now forecasting widespread rainfall over #Yemen towards the end of the forecast period. Note also the rainfall in the Sahel. The CMC model may be a over playing this a bit though.
Here's a live satellite detected precipitation map showing current storms across the region.
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and the Korean KMA models.
And finally for #NorthAfrica we have the long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) forecasts - which remain remarkably well aligned.
Here we see a nearly live image of today's intense storms over the #Abbay.
This zoomed out perspective shows the winds bringing the rain from the storms over India on the right hand side and their consequences, the strengthening monsoon over East and Central Africa and #ArabianStorms
Today's July 7th 10-day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia (+1 12-day from KMA) and the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, eastern parts of #SouthSudan, south eastern parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea.

Two of the three models are now forecasting rain for Somalia.
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models. Over this period significant rainfall is not yet forecast for #Somaliland, but it does appear to be coming soon. #Tigray and #Eritrea continue to have rain though, modest amounts in the former.
Today's #ArabianStorms are interesting in their configuration, the rain band that forms over Yemen extending north west into Saudi Arabia in particular.
As sunset approached the #ArabianStorms in the middle of the Arabian Peninsula grew stronger. The second image is from half an hour after the first one. #DesertRain
The 10-Day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA & ACG weather models are showing increasingly more #DesertRain in #Yemen and #Oman.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour July 7th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA and ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
The rainfall forecasts are long-range July 7th rainfall forecasts. The16-day GFS & GEFS models, the 12 day KMA and the 15 day EPS (Euro ensemble) model forecasts for the #MiddleEast.

All now show #DesertRain in #Yemen #Oman and Southern #SaudiArabia
الله أعلم
Our daily rounded picture of the full North Western Hemisphere. Zero hour simulation data from the GFS.

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
/ENDS

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More from @althecat

8 Jul
As the UNSC met tonight to discuss the #GERD storms continued to form over Ethiopia's highlands the source of the water which is currently filling the dam.

Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
During the UNSC meeting. Ethiopia's water minister explained how this works. "The filling of the dam is part of the construction process.... When the dam is filled the water either flows over the dam or through the bottom outlets."
The Minister later spoke to media :

Q: (@AJEnglish): Why don't you stop filling the dam?

A: All dams are filling. Why? Because it is the rainy season. In fact it is good to protect from floods. We have bountiful water. It doesn't hurt anyone.
Read 19 tweets
7 Jul
Excerpts from a statement issued (to the Black Caucus in the US Congress), about #سد_النهضة .
“The #GERD will help improve the water supply & relieve pressure on the Nile River, which supplies the vast majority of the country’s fresh water. Ethiopia faces a drought that is expected to directly affect nearly 20% of its population. ...
In addition to the locust outbreak that has devoured more than 80,000 acres of crops in recent months. The GERD will contribute in regulating the country's water and reducing sediment, expanding ag enterprises, increasing hydroelectric production, and providing flood control.
Read 5 tweets
7 Jul
Today's recent rainfall update. 24 hours rainfall across Horn of Africa and Eastern Sahara. There are now reports of flooding in Sudan, which had very heavy rainfall yesterday.

#Ethiopia #Abbay #GERD #DesertRain
And a live satellite image of the same area from @zoom_earth
And a three day 72hour satellite rainfall estimate for the same area. The green areas over Ethiopia's highlands show rainfall of 2-3 inches (50-75mms) over this period.
Read 12 tweets
6 Jul
This complicates things still further in Tigray. But it is certainly a good thing that they are alive.

Captured Ethiopian government soldiers reach Tigray capital – in pictures. theguardian.com/world/gallery/…
This is a very interesting read. Neatly identifying the critical issue. But perhaps overplaying the risk of resumption in conflict a little.

theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
One gets the impression from @SecBlinken’s latest statement that he thinks the Ethiopians blew up the Tekeze Bridge. Which is needed to enable humanitarian access to Tigray.
Read 9 tweets
6 Jul
Over 24hrs 25-60mms rain has fallen over all three Nile tributaries with the heaviest falling over the #Abbay in Ethiopia's highlands which feeds the #GERD. Here we see an image of storms starting up this morning.

Rain forecasts will follow.

Thread contains rainfall update.
I jumped the gun calling the beginning of #GERD filling on1 July - as the big rainy season began.
Official news of filling came yesterday in the form of an objection to the filling from Egypt after being notified by #Ethiopia that it is underway.
#GERD filling is expected to be less than 13.5 Billion Cubic Meters as time ran out to raise the dam to the height needed to hold this amount of water.

When the filling is completed spilling over the center of the dam will resume as you can see in this image below from 2020.
Read 25 tweets

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