As the UNSC met tonight to discuss the #GERD storms continued to form over Ethiopia's highlands the source of the water which is currently filling the dam.

Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
During the UNSC meeting. Ethiopia's water minister explained how this works. "The filling of the dam is part of the construction process.... When the dam is filled the water either flows over the dam or through the bottom outlets."
The Minister later spoke to media :

Q: (@AJEnglish): Why don't you stop filling the dam?

A: All dams are filling. Why? Because it is the rainy season. In fact it is good to protect from floods. We have bountiful water. It doesn't hurt anyone.
These two satellite images show the extent of the storms over Sudan, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and Yemen as night fell this evening.
Today's big picture shows the broader region, night falling over the #ArabianStorms and some very large #DesertRain storms in Chad and Niger. Forecasts shows significant rainfall deep into the arid desert parts of the Sahel over the next few days.
Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 8th through July 19th.

Most models are now forecasting widespread rainfall over #Yemen #Oman #UAE and #KSA Note also the rainfall in the Sahel. The CMC model may be a over playing this a bit though. We shall soon see.
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and the Korean KMA models.
And finally for #NorthAfrica we have the long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) forecasts - which remain remarkably well aligned.

You will get a better view of the forecast rain over the southern Arabian Peninsula later in the bulletin.
This satellite closeup shows deep convective bursts this afternoon over Eastern Tigray and Yemen.
And here in a wider angle view we can also see the large storms over the White Nile and Baro Akobbo catchment areas.
Today's July 8th 10-day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia (+1 12-day from KMA) and the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, eastern parts of #SouthSudan, south eastern parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea.

The purple areas cover the #Abbay and #TekezeAtbara basins.
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models. Over this period significant rainfall is not yet forecast for #Somaliland, but it does appear to be coming soon.
Today's #ArabianStorms coming to life and delivering #DesertRain, mostly fairly light, but over a very large area.
The 10-Day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA & ACG weather models are showing increasingly more #DesertRain in #Yemen and #Oman.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
The forecast rain we see in ^^ these forecasts deserves an explanation. The cause appears to be monsoon level atmospheric moisture making it all the way across the Arabian Sea.

These PWAT forecasts are for Saturday, then next Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
48 Hour July 8th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA and ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
The rainfall forecasts are long-range July 7th rainfall forecasts. The16-day GFS & GEFS models, the 12 day KMA and the 15 day EPS (Euro ensemble) model forecasts for the #MiddleEast.

KMA & EPS models now show #DesertRain in #UAE as well as #Yemen #Oman #SaudiArabia.

الله أعلم
Our daily rounded picture of the full North Western Hemisphere. Zero hour simulation data (i.e. now) from the GFS.

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high)
/ENDS

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Here is the full, precise quote of the Ethiopia Water Minister.

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More from @althecat

10 Jul
The next two weeks promise to bring astonishing weather to both sides of the Red Sea & across the Sahara. In this weather bulletin I will explain what the models are forecasting.

Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow. Image
In the image above we see part of Arabia and part of the #NileBasin storms - those which feed the Blue Nile/Abbay and the Tekeze basins the source of most of the Nile's flow.
Below we see:
1. All Nile Basin rainfall as of this evening
2. All of this evenings #ArabianStorms ImageImage
The rainfall we see on both sides of the Red Sea comes mostly from the same source - the monsoon over the Arabian Sea, India and South East Asia.
A satellite image from this morning shows what we currently think to be the cradle of humanity. Where we all come from. Image
Read 36 tweets
9 Jul
Two Nile dams joined by nile 100kms apart as seen this morning by @NASA's Modis satellite. [Top right Sudan's Roseires and bottom left the #GERD.]

Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow. Image
Today's big picture is a dramatic shot of the Sahara at sunset with a massive storm over Mali and a line of clouds from the heart of Algeria's desert south east to Chad. On the right you can see tonight's storms over the #Ethiopia highlands. Image
The rainfall in the Western Sahara has just started but it has a few more days to run. In this animation of a simulation you see the precipitable water anomaly, which highlights areas which have much more water than normal for this time of year.
Read 18 tweets
9 Jul
Coverage thread of tonight's UNSC session

Egypt, Sudan explain GERD threats amid Ethiopian intransigence, members call for resuming talks - egypttoday.com/Article/1/1058…
Read 8 tweets
7 Jul
Excerpts from a statement issued (to the Black Caucus in the US Congress), about #سد_النهضة .
“The #GERD will help improve the water supply & relieve pressure on the Nile River, which supplies the vast majority of the country’s fresh water. Ethiopia faces a drought that is expected to directly affect nearly 20% of its population. ...
In addition to the locust outbreak that has devoured more than 80,000 acres of crops in recent months. The GERD will contribute in regulating the country's water and reducing sediment, expanding ag enterprises, increasing hydroelectric production, and providing flood control.
Read 5 tweets
7 Jul
On day 2 of official #GERD filling we have glimpse through the clouds and what looks like a nearly full GERD lake in a recent photograph taken after the spillways were commissioned this year.

Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
This morning's rainfall update thread is attached here.

The thread also looks at a major #DesertRain event to the west of the Horn, over Sudan, Chad and Niger where August/September like rains appear to have come early.
Here's an update from this afternoon with satellite estimated rainfall over the last 24 hours showing 14-35mms of rain over the #Abbay basin.
Read 20 tweets

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