Thread by @x2IndSpeculator

After seeing this Israel's table, I did my best to verify, retrieve & analyze data. Though some information was omitted, the only misinterpretation I found was Percent of Population Vaccinated referring to those with the 1st dose, not fully vaccinated.
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https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1413922415550291968?s=20

To get the data yourself, first, go to #Israel Ministry of Health dashboard, select 'The world of data', then 'Post-vaccination validation table'. There, you can download everything in .csv format. Israel vaccinates exclusively with #Pfizer mRNA.
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datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…

After you import data from the .csv file into Excel, you'll get this. You can go all the way to the beginnings of the vaccination campaign, separated by age groups and by vaccination status. Impressive.
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You'll notice a lot of these <5, which means less than 5. #Israel MOH probably wanted to exclude numbers that are so small they could corrupt the data.
We'll need one more thing: information about the percentage of vaccinated age groups. That's on the front page.
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Since only those 14+ days after the 2nd dose are fully vaccinated, we can add positives of all other partially vaccinated columns to unvaccinated positives.
The total number of positives matches the numbers from @Worldometers with a slight difference because <5 is disregarded.
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Next, let's see the percentages of the fully vaccinated population. For the weeks' totals, I used the total population percentage of vaccinated from the last day of the week.
I couldn't find the same for age brackets, so for age I used the last numbers available.
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Before calculating vaccine efficacy, we must normalize the no. of participants; that's why trials have an equal number of vaccinated & placebos. We wouldn't have to do this if it were 50%:50%. But since it's not, we have to adjust the numbers by multiplying with a ratio.
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The ratio is calculated by dividing the percentage of vaccinated by the percentage of unvaccinated in a population. For 50%:50% it's one, for 75%:25% it's 3, and for 25%:75% it's 0.333.
VE=1 - (positives fully vaccinated)/(positives unvaccinated * ratio)
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For example, to simplify, in a 90% vaccinated population, there are 9 vaccinated for every 1 unvaccinated.
If 1 positive vaccinated & 9 positive unvaccinated
VE=1-1/(9*9)=98.7%
If 1 pos. vacc. & 1 pos. unvacc.
VE=1-1/(1*9)=88.8%
If 9 pos. vacc. & 1 pos. unvacc.
VE=1-9/(1*9)=0%
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Using this on a small number & one week can be misleading. I explained all the caveats in my US Breakthrough Reports thread. Instead of looking at individual numbers that may be influenced greatly by a single positive, it's better to look at the trend.
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https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1398383634298683402?s=20

So, ignore those bizarre efficacy numbers by age brackets, and look at the trend. Weekly numbers are larger, although not normalized for age, and they do show an extreme drop-off in a month which began as Israel opened up & #DeltaVariant was introduced.
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Israel is making monthly analyses to avoid the small numbers fallacy; aggregates them but surely normalizes them for age. Therefore, their June number of 64% efficacy against the infection & symptomatic #COVID was much better and more reliable.
reuters.com/world/middle-e…
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Israel includes asymptomatics & symptomatic #COVID19. But, before anyone says "no big deal", read #Pfizer's FDA brief. Symptomatic COVID was the primary efficacy endpoint in trials, although #CDC didn't mention it in their recent rebuttal of boosters.
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https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1412185597603725312?s=20

Pfizer never performed PCR tests on participants (like AstraZeneca) & excluded asymptomatics. Viral load is of course decreased, but not to zero in the nasopharynx, therefore spreading infection remains possible (now amplified by the #DeltaVariant).
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https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1347337994106241025?s=20

So, the goal has shifted to the secondary efficacy endpoint: prevention of severe disease. Aside from bending the truth, there are two problems. 1st, we still don't know have many of these breakthroughs will turn into hospitalizations & deaths.
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https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1413325506020352000?s=20

Less than before, but how much? Whether the link is broken is still a guess, a gamble!
2nd, we know #SARS2 has an incredibly wide cellular & tissue tropism, so why let it inflict short & long-term damage to people's organs hoping they'll be alright.
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https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1402548001911021568?s=20

I'm fully vaccinated with Pfizer. I wrote many times how I think mRNA revolutionary technology could save us, and that Pfizer's & Moderna's vaccines are the best.
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https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1400423522007126017?s=20

This is not the way to end the pandemic, just a risky gamble that outcomes will attenuate. To end it we need a) a nasal spray vaccine that boosts mucosal immunity & prevents infections or b) the NPIs implemented until MOST of the WORLD is vaccinated.
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https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1412059914080489472?s=20

Nevertheless, governments around the world opted to force endemicity, so the natural herd immunity crowd, #SARS2 underestimators won. Authorities placed a bet that all of us, vaccinated or not, will get infected but only with mild illness.
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https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1336431146540949504?s=20

It's frustrating that this bending of the truth about vaccines' powers will embolden anti-vaxxers & #COVID deniers. Intramuscular vaccines worked as they should; it's just that officials botched the roll-out by being impatient & not thinking globally.
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https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1412550120693014528?s=20