Thread by @ecoinometrics

#Bitcoin after the Halving
Jul. 13, 2021

427 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $32,569

There is some intriguing on-chain data that suggests Bitcoin is resetting after the big correction that took us from $64k all the way down to $30k.

So let's have a look. 🧵👇 (1/13)

Take addresses and put them in buckets depending on how much #BTC they control:

🟧 Less than 1 BTC (small fish)
🟧 1 to 10 BTC
🟧 …
🟧 1k to 10k BTC (whales)

Now what’s the idea? (2/13)

The closer you are to a small fish:

⬜️ The less firepower you have as an individual address.
⬜️ The less sophisticated about the market you are. Small fish are not in the know.

Individually small fish don’t have much power over the market. (3/13)

The closer you are to a whale:

⬜️ The more firepower you have as an individual address.
⬜️ The more sophisticated you are. Whales are the smart money.

Any whale can release a large amount of selling pressure causing a significant impact on the price. (4/13)

One metric we can track on-chain is how many coins are held in aggregate by each group.

Which means we can know who is accumulating vs offloading coins.

So let's do that. (5/13)

The post-halving bull market really began around October last year when #BTC started to take off from the $10k zone.

There is a striking difference between how the small fish behaved over this period when compared to the whales.

Check it out. (6/13)

🟧 Small fish started accumulating coins when BTC broke the previous ATH at $20k and continued all the way up to $64k.

🟧 For the most part medium fish started offloading coins after BTC reached $20k.

🟧 And whales started offloading after BTC passed the $30k level. (7/13)

But now that #Bitcoin is back at $30k whales have started accumulating again…

See for yourself. (8/13)

Apparently $30k is a key level that stopped the trend of coins accumulation by whales.

When you look at the price action around this time you can see that we were growing very fast. So fast that the growth trajectory started to catch up with the log average trajectory… (9/13)

So it is possible that some whales felt it was too much too fast and triggered selling pressure which led to the topping process at $64k.

When FUD was added to the situation the small fish also stopped accumulating resulting in the -55% correction we are in right now. (10/13)

Since #BTC stabilized around $30k things have changed though.

Whales and small fish have started accumulating again while other categories have turned neutral. (11/13)

If that interpretation is correct, then what we had with this correction is a reset.

Would that trend of accumulation continue, there is only one direction #Bitcoin can go and that’s up.

So let’s keep our eyes open for on-chain trends. (12/13)

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Cheers,

Nick
ecoinometrics.substack.com