Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
@PentagonPresSec MR. KIRBY: Earlier today, you know there was a transition of authority ceremony held at Resolute Support HQ in Kabul, #Afghanistan, marking the transition of command authorities from GEN Scott Miller to the commander of @CENTCOM, Gen Frank McKenzie... 2/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM ...As the secretary approved earlier this month, and as we outlined to you on July 2nd, Gen McKenzie will now lead the US mission in #Afghanistan, and that's focused on 4 things: 1) protecting our diplomatic presence in country; 2) enabling the safe operation of... 3/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM ...Hamid Karzai International Airport; 3) continuing to provide appropriate advice & assistance to the #ANDSF; and 4) supporting our counterterrorism efforts. As you heard from @SecDef just hours ago, before his meeting with the UK SecState for Defense, Ben Wallace... 4/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...This transfer of authority is only the next milestone in an ongoing drawdown process. Withdrawal remains on track to be complete by the end of AUG & Gen McKenzie retains all existing authorities surrounding the conduct of ongoing CT operations needed to protect... 5/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...our homeland from any threats that may emanate out of #Afghanistan. As Gen McKenzie said to those that were in Kabul for the ceremony: "This ceremony marks an important milestone in & transition of our involvement in AFG. What it does not signify is an end of our... 6/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...commitment to our Afghan partners." Now, as he said that we'll be able to support CT efforts & our Afghan partners from places outside of the country indicates a change in posture, but not a change in our resolve to support our partners. Both @SecDef & Gen McKenzie have... 7/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...expressed their thanks to GEN Miller. You may have caught the secretary's comments just an hour or so ago to that regard, to thank GEN Miller & his team for their diligent execution of the retrograde of millions of tons of equipment & thousands of personnel... 8/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...all conducted with great efficiency & w/o a single casualty, & I think that's historic. When you think about this kind of withdrawal, which is ongoing, but when you think about what they've accomplished in a short period of time & no one's gotten hurt -- and we had to... 9/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...assume it would be a contestant environment -- we haven't done something like this, so it truly was historic. Now, following today's events, GEN Miller departed #Afghanistan. He's on his way back to the US & we'll have more to talk about that in the coming days. 10/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: I have two questions for you related to the transfer of authority from GEN Miller to Gen McKenzie. First one is, do Gen McKenzie's authorities to conduct airstrikes against the Taliban end on August 31? & the second question is when you mentioned that the airport... 11/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...security will be one of the four missions or purposes, what exactly -- have you worked what exactly U.S. troops would do at the airport? Will they be operating some sort of defensive weapon systems or what will they be doing? 12/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: On your first question about authorities, what I can tell you is, as I said in my opening statement that Gen McKenzie has all those authorities now, as did GEN Miller. So, he possesses them now. I'm not going to speculate about timing on that. But what I can... 13/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...tell you is that certainly throughout the remainder of the summer through the end of August Gen McKenzie has those authorities. I won't go beyond that in terms of schedule or speculating about what it would look like going forward. On the airport, we already have... 14/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...some & have for quite some time some troops dedicated to security at the airport. There's an aviation support element there, there are some defensive capabilities & I would expect that without getting into details, to some degree & in some way that support will continue...15/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...through the drawdown. Now what things look like after that & after we've continued to flush out all the details with #Turkey, who has agreed to lead this security effort, we'll see. But, what that looks like going forward after the drawdown, but through the drawdown... 16/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...yes we will have requisite capabilities there at the airport to assist in the security.

Q: But it's not clear that they would continue after Aug 31st?

MR. KIRBY: I don't want to get ahead of a decision making process that's not complete... 17/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...We are still in discussions with the Turks about what security at the airport's going to look like. We're grateful for their willingness to lead this effort. You heard President Erdogan talk about that last week. We're still hammering out, as President Erdogan said... 18/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...we're still hammering out the scope of what that is & when we get it solidified we'll be able to talk in more detail. But I don't want to speculate about a specific future presence at the airport for US forces just yet.

Q: Can I follow-up on the airport?

MR. KIRBY: Sure.19/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: So instead there's some kind of an agreement on a framework for providing security for the airport by the Turkish side, but there's some sticking points that are still under discussion. Are you able to highlight which issues are still being discussed w/the Turkish side? 20/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: I would take issue with the description of sticking points. We've had some productive discussions with the Turks. We've been reading some of those calls out to you that the secretary has had himself with his counterpart. I don't believe I'd describe... 21/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...them as sticking points, but there are some modalities & some requirements that we're still working out with the Turks. & again, I don't think it would be useful for me to publicly conduct a negotiation here at the podium. We're still talking with them. & when we have... 22/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...it more solidified we'll be able to talk about it.

Q: But is the US open to the idea that they might have to provide some troops for the purpose of security at the airport in the future in Kabul?

MR. KIRBY: We are working out what the future security requirements... 23/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...are going to be at the airport. I'm not going to speculate right now what that's going to look like. As I mentioned, of course we have some responsibilities there, have had for a long time, they're still in place. What it's going to look like when the drawdown is... 24/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...over I think we'll have to get to later. The only thing I'd add is that the president has made it very clear we're going to maintain a diplomatic presence in Kabul. We know that in order to do that you have to have adequate security at the airport. So we are very aware... 25/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...of the need to adequate security at the airport so as to protect our diplomats and the work that they need to do in #Afghanistan. I think I'll leave it at that. 26/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: We spoke about the Over the Horizon capability or capacity that the US was working on & you've spoken about it a couple times at the podium. I wanted to ask you again, are there anymore details about what that OTH capability would look like if it were necessary to utilize?27/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: There is already an OTH capability & we can talk about what that looks like. We have bases & facilities that we can use in the Middle East region & are. We have a carrier strike group in the region & that is being utilized. We already had OTH CT capabilities... 28/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...Would we like to be able to close down time & space & to make it faster & more efficient? Absolutely. So, we are talking about & discussing w/countries in the region about the possibilities of being able to use facilities & infrastructure that is closer to #Afghanistan... 29/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...I don't have any progress specifically to report out today on that, but it's something that we're actively discussing in concert with our State Dept colleagues, but again we have now a robust over-the-horizon counterterrorism capability and we're using it. 30/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: Robust counterterrorism capability. If you have the ability to launch airstrikes why aren't you using them as the #Taliban continues to take more territory in #Afghanistan?

MR. KIRBY: I thought we talked about this one last week. I'll try again. 31/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...The mission now in #Afghanistan -- I went through the four missions -- is to continue the drawdown. Gen McKenzie now has the authorities to assist the #ANDSF where & when he finds it feasible to do so, but he has those authorities. & as I also have said, the Afghans... 32/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...themselves have strike capability. They have a good air force, a solid air force, & air force, by the way, that we're adding to & trying to improve the capability of. We're going to be giving them another 37 Blackhawk helicopters. That's more than they have right now... 33/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...so in effect doubling their attack helicopter capability. We're purchasing for them three more Super Tucano fixed wing strike aircraft. & we've agreed to help refurbish a good part of their fleet of Mi-17 helicopters. They have a robust air force. The #Taliban does not... 34/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...& they could use that air force in a strike capacity in support of their troops on the ground. As we have said for quite some time now, I think as you -- whatever the outcome are six to eight months from now, whatever it is we're going to be able to look back... 35/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...& we're going to be able to see that Afghan leadership is really what made the difference or really what caused the outcomes to occur, Afghan civilian leadership, political leadership, & Afghan military leadership. This is their country. This is their fight... 36/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...These are their people, & the president has been very clear that it is now time for them to meet those responsibilities.

Q: I didn't actually hear an answer to Lucas's question either time, and I want to ask that and follow up. 37/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: Let me hear it before you follow up. I'm not going to repeat the whole thing again, but as I said Gen McKenzie has the authorities to assist the Afghans where he deems feasible.

Q: The question I believe is the #Taliban had continued with very aggressive... 38/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...campaign of violence & intimidation. To the best of our knowledge we have not seen coalition air forces in action against the #Taliban. I'm not asking you what capacity the Afghans have. I'm asking you why have US coalition forces not been brought into the action? 39/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef What is it that you're waiting for other than have an airport?

MR. KIRBY: I never said that we haven't been brought into the action. I've never said that we haven't supported.

Q: (inaudible) the airstrikes? 40/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: There have been moments during the drawdown where we have supported the Afghans, absolutely.

Q: Can we get details on what the most recent airstrikes have been?

MR. KIRBY: I think you can understand that given the situation that we're in that we're not going... 41/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...to be detailing everything we're doing to support, but it would be wrong to report that there's been no support to Afghan forces in the field during this drawdown.

Q: Can you at least give us some context? The drawdown's gone on for several months... 42/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...Was it in the early days? Can you roughly tell us the last time there was a coalition airstrike?

MR. KIRBY: I will not. I will not do that because the drawdown is ongoing & as I've said from the very beginning we have to assume that this drawdown's going to be... 43/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...contested, so we're going to be careful about the kind of information we're putting out there, but it would be wrong to conclude and accurate to report that we have not come to the assistance of the #ANDSF throughout this period of drawdown. 44/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: You keep talking about future security requirements & the need to maintain adequate security for the embassy in these future security requirements. And that you're continuing to discuss this with the Turks about what these future security requirements are. 45/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef So by definition does that mean that there is not currently adequate security at the airport because you are still having discussions about future security? & what is your assessment of the security situation at the airport?

MR. KIRBY: It does not mean that. 46/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: How does it not mean that? Help me understand.

MR. KIRBY: Because the security at the airport has historically been a mission the Turks have contributed to under the resolute support umbrella, so they are there now and they've agreed to stay there. As all forces... 47/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...draw down out of #Afghanistan there are going to have to be adjustments made to who else is helping the Turks & in what way that help is being rendered. That's the discussion happening right now, & I'm simply not prepared because it's not complete to detail that for you...48/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...@SecDef's comfortable that there's adequate security at the airport right now & is determined throughout the period of the drawdown to make sure that that security remains in place. Some of that security is being provided by the US. What that's going to look like... 49/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...after the drawdown is over, we're just not there yet.

Q: So what's your assessment of what the #Taliban's goal is?

MR. KIRBY: What's my assessment of...

Q: What is the Defense Department's assessment of the goal of the Taliban? 50/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: I'm going to make it a habit not to get inside the #Taliban's headspace here & I'm certainly not going to talk about intelligence assessments. It is clear from what they are doing that they have governance designs certainly of a national scale. It is clear... 51/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...from what they are doing that they believe there is a military solution to the end of this conflict. We continue to believe that the most sustainable & the most responsible end & solution to this war is a political one, one through negotiated diplomacy...52/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...A negotiated settlement that is Afghan-led. Nothing has changed about our desire to see that be the outcome.

Q: So you think they want to take over?

MR. KIRBY: I said they clearly have governance designs of a national character because you can see it... 53/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...in the districts that they are trying to challenge and/or have occupied. 54/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: I have two questions. One is a few briefings ago you mentioned that there would possibly or most likely be some kind of ceremony recognizing the end of the mission in #Afghanistan. Is that still part of the plan? 55/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: You're right. Today is not the end of the mission & I don't believe that Gen McKenzie or @SecDef could have made that more clear. Not the end. Just a milestone.

Q: Yes.

MR. KIRBY: & the secretary wants to be able to recognize the service & sacrifice of... 56/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...the more than 800,000 US troops who have fought & served in #Afghanistan & there will be an appropriate time for that. There will be an appropriate place for that. & when we have something to announce, we certainly will. 57/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: I think it was in response to Barbara that you didn't want to say from the podium the detail, any kind of specific incidents of support that the US troops have given --

MR. KIRBY: That's right.

Q: -- in part because there's a concern of being attacked on the way... 58/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...out by the #Taliban and others. You don't want to --

MR. KIRBY: As I said, from the very beginning, we have to assume that at any time this drawdown can be contested by the Taliban. So far we have had no casualties. Everybody has gotten out safely --

Q: Yes. 59/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: -- and efficiently and we want to keep that as the case. 60/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: So your theory is that by telling us, like say this happened 3 weeks ago we gained support -- I'm making that up, just to be clear -- that would possibly jeopardize this delicate balance we have now that there's been no casualties, no attacks? 61/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: I don't think I'd put it in your words. I would simply say that operational security is a prime concern & we want to be very careful about the info we release right now.

Q: But the info that Barbara asked & others about support, if indeed the coalition forces... 62/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...have spt'd the Afghan troops at some point in the past against the #Taliban, wouldn't the TB already know that? Why can't you tell us abt something that happened, if indeed it happened in support of the #ANDSF against the TB who, I would think, knew what hit them already? 63/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: You're making a presumption that for some reason we're trying to keep information from the #Taliban --

Q: No, no, no --

MR. KIRBY: What we're trying to do is protect our options going forward to make sure that the rest of this drawdown can be safe and orderly... 64/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...& so we are being fairly miserly about the kind of operational information we're putting out there. I know that's an adjustment from how, over the last 20 years, we've talked about this war & our involvement in it. But this is a delicate time, a very delicate time. 65/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...As you saw last week, @CENTCOM said that we're just over 90% done with the drawdown, that means that you have less capability & you have less resources at your disposable inside the country. So you want to be ultra-careful about the kind of info that's getting out... 66/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...there because the capabilities are now dwindling down & we got to be careful. & we make no apologies for that. It's not about what the #Taliban knows or doesn't know, it's about what we're putting out into the info space to make sure we preserve our options. So far... 67/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...nobody's been hurt. We want to keep that going throughout the entirety of this drawdown process.

Q: Last week White House press secretary said that this war has not been militarily won. Does the US military agree with that assessment? 68/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: I think we've said it all along -- & said it just a few minutes ago. We don't believe there's going to be a military solution here. It's got to be done politically. That is not a new talking point, it's not a new fact, it's not a new conclusion. We want to... 69/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...see a political settlement to the war in #Afghanistan. But as for the US, the president has made it clear that our participation is going to transition. We're going to bring our troops home & we're going to transition to a new relationship w/Afghan Forces going forward. 70/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: So, again, basically you are saying a different thing, right? She said the war has not been militarily won. It means that --

MR. KIRBY: We don't believe it -- because we don't believe that it can be solved militarily.

Q: & the other one. So #Taliban has taken over... 71/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...the country and then thousands of people are already running away from the Carthage (with ?) Tajikistan into Iran. Even some of them have arrived into Turkey. And then (inaudible) the large (Bagram ?) base without even saying goodbye to Afghans... 72/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...Can you convince the world that this is something other than defeat, other than failure?

MR. KIRBY: This is a conflict that is going to be solved politically & it's a responsibility that the Afghan people, the Afghan govt & Afghan Forces now have to be responsible for... 73/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...They'll have us helping & supporting them but it's their responsibility. This isn't about a defeat. It's about a transition to a new relationship with Afghan Forces & the fighting doesn't have to continue. I mean, you talk about it with this sense of inevitability... 74/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...that, frankly, I don't think we share, that there has to be more fighting, that the #Taliban will take over the country. None of that is inevitable. & as I said earlier, I think when we look back six or eight months from now, what we're going to see is the influence... 75/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...of leadership & how much political military leadership out of Afghan leaders there was to not make that inevitable. & let me just one more time, you brought up Bagram, to go back on this again. There was full coordination in the turnover of Bagram Air Base... 76/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...contrary to what I've seen in some press reporting. Full coordination. Days before, a walk through the whole base -- an aerial flyover of the whole base. A couple of days before, we hosted a couple of dozen Afghan engineers on the base to show them how to operate... 77/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...the electrical system & the water system. & I take issue with your characterization that we just walked out of Bagram without saying goodbye. First of all, it's not a goodbye. It was a turnover to them & their custodial responsibilities & it was done in full coord...78/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...Now, I can't stand up & say with certainty & assert to you that every soldier, every Afghan soldier, at or near Bagram got the word what was happening. But I can assert to you that I've seen the documents, that, in fact, the turnover was done in a coordinated way with... 79/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...senior Afghan military & civilian leaders. There was no secret about it. Bagram was always going to be the last base turned over & the process of getting it ready for turnover was weeks long and months planned. 80/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: 20 years of war, and you called it 20 years (of ?) US oppression inside #Afghanistan and the (inaudible) years, the US military?

MR. KIRBY: What I can tell you is that the US military accomplished the mission for which it was sent to AFG, that was to prevent AFG from... 81/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...becoming a safe haven for another attack on the homeland. & there hasn't been one since 9/11. & Al-Qaeda, while present, is nowhere near the organization that it once was. I'm not saying that there aren't terrorist groups operating out of #Afghanistan. There are... 82/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...We've been fairly honest & open about that. But the threats that they pose to the homeland are radically reduced. As a matter fact, what we said is the threats have actually moved elsewhere in the region & into Africa. & we need to be able to focus resources... 83/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...& strategy against that threat as it continues to metastasize. So I can't speak for every veteran, & I wouldn't begin to do that because they're all entitled to their own opinions about their service & sacrifice over the last 20 years, but the mission for which the US... 84/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...military was sent to #Afghanistan was accomplished.

85/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: I heard your comments with Fox News Sunday & I know you've said the #Taliban victory is not inevitable, but is there a worry that the Taliban is wiping out and will continue to wipe out gains that the U.S. has fought for and died for alongside Afghans? 86/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: We are certainly concerned about the prospect that the social, economic, political progress that has been made in #Afghanistan over the last 20 years could be harmed or put at peril by increasing #Taliban advances. We're obviously concerned about that. 87/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...We're not unmindful of the threats that are posed in that regard, which is why the president has made it clear we're going to maintain a diplomatic presence in Kabul so that our diplomats can continue to support those kinds of programs and initiatives. It's also why... 88/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...we're going to continue to have a bilateral relationship with Afghan forces going forward. It won't be the same. We're not going to be on the ground with them, but we will still be with them. We will still be helping them financially, logistically, & in other ways... 89/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...That's why this is just a transition to a new relationship, it's not -- it's not the end of the relationship. 90/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef Q: I need to understand kind of where the buck stops. What you had mentioned earlier about the air strikes, it seems to me based on what you had said that the US is either not helping with the air strikes, it's not feasible according to Gen McKenzie for the US to... 91/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...get in & do some of these air strikes, or the US is helping with these airstrikes but not making a significant difference as the #Taliban continues to make these gains. So who is making these decisions on the air strike? Who does the buck stop with? 92/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...Is it GEN Miller or was it GEN Miller until today, & now will it be Gen McKenzie? How involved is the Pentagon involved in these decisions, or how involved is the Pentagon with these decisions, I should say? 93/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef MR. KIRBY: So first on your list of 3 things that aren't happening, I take issue with all of them. I don't believe anybody has said any of those things. & as I said at the outset, Gen McKenzie now has the authorities that GEN Miller had & the decision-making ability... 94/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM @SecDef ...for how he wants to or can or is feasible to support Afghan forces in the field. END. 95/95

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More from @JJSchroden

13 Jul
"Last autumn, with the departure of American troops from #Afghanistan looming after the US signed a withdrawal deal with the #Taliban, several of the most senior security officials in Kabul urged President @ashrafghani to make some hard choices." 1/n

theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
@ashrafghani "The Afghan army & police needed to retrench, figures incl the then defense minister, Assadullah Khalid, told Ghani. Remote outposts & rural areas where troops held little more than the cluster of govt & security buildings that make up a district center should be abandoned." 2/n
@ashrafghani "Troops & ammunition drawn back from these areas could focus on the fight for more important assets, such as key roads & border crossings, as forces adapted to the loss of the US air force & other technical support that had been critical to fighting the Taliban, they argued." 3/n
Read 6 tweets
12 Jul
A number of people have been asking my thoughts on recent developments in #Afghanistan. Now that I’m back from a week of sandcastle building, a THREAD to that effect. 1/n
1st, a few thoughts on recent #Taliban gains. That the TB are suddenly gaining ground in rural areas shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone. eg, I predicted the group would have a slight military adv post-US withdrawal in a @CTCWP paper back in JAN: ctc.usma.edu/afghanistans-s… 2/n
@CTCWP The #Taliban have—for years—been employing a strategy of capturing rural areas IOT generate position & resources to threaten more populated areas, as we @CNA_org described in our independent threat assessment for Congress back in 2013 (cna.org/cna_files/pdf/…). 3/n
Read 25 tweets
12 Jul
Comments on #Afghanistan from @PentagonPresSec's #DOD press conference late last week in this THREAD. 1/n
defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: A couple things on the president speech on #Afghanistan. Can you say what, if any, progress DOD is making on the over-the-horizon negotiations? & can you talk a little bit about the #Taliban and what progress they've made on district takeovers? 2/n
How far do you think they've gotten? I've heard over a hundred. At this point can you talk a little bit about what the situation is on the ground with the #Taliban?

MR. KIRBY: So, on over-the-horizon capabilities, we continue to explore additional OTH capabilities... 3/n
Read 97 tweets
29 Jun
Comments on #Afghanistan from today’s #DOD presser with ⁦@PentagonPresSec⁩ today in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: A question about #Afghanistan and trying to understand the sequence of events as the US military winds up its activities. When Gen Miller leaves, will that mark the end of Resolute Support mission or will there be some sort of interim period between the next several days… 2/n
…or weeks and September, when there will be some other commander or some other mission follow on?

MR. KIRBY: I don't want to get too far ahead of process here. Resolute Support is a NATO operation, so it's really more appropriate for NATO to speak to the future of it… 3/n
Read 43 tweets
22 Jun
Comments on #Afghanistan from ⁦@PentagonPresSec⁩’s #DOD presser today in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: The #Taliban have made some significant gains in recent weeks & even as recently as past weekend…especially in the North. Is @SecDef considering recommending a slowdown in the withdrawal or other changes to minimize a chance of an early collapse of the Afghan forces? 2/n
MR. KIRBY: I would say w/o speaking specifically to the #Taliban advances you spoke to, as @SecDef has said, the withdrawal is on pace. It is a dynamic situation & we've said that from the very beginning, which means that he, the chairman, & Gen McKenzie, are constantly… 3/n
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