Q: A question about #Afghanistan and trying to understand the sequence of events as the US military winds up its activities. When Gen Miller leaves, will that mark the end of Resolute Support mission or will there be some sort of interim period between the next several days… 2/n
…or weeks and September, when there will be some other commander or some other mission follow on?
MR. KIRBY: I don't want to get too far ahead of process here. Resolute Support is a NATO operation, so it's really more appropriate for NATO to speak to the future of it… 3/n
…But it is my understanding that w/the completion of the retrograde of US forces from #Afghanistan, w/accepting whatever's left behind to protect our diplomatic presence, that doesn’t necessarily mean the end of Resolute Support, but that's a question better posed to NATO. 4/n
Q: But the U.S. is part of NATO and so you're part of the mission, so ...
MR. KIRBY: Correct.
Q: ... will you continue to operate in some way after the retrograde is finished? 5/n
MR. KIRBY: When the withdrawal is complete, our mission transitions in two ways. One, to whatever US forces are in #Afghanistan are there to protect the diplomatic presence. & you know, there's a lot of pieces to that, but it's really about protecting the diplomatic mission… 6/n
…& two, our bilateral relationship with Afghan forces shifts to one of financial & logistical support from outside the country.
7/n
Q: But try to think in terms of when the U.S. war in #Afghanistan ends. Is it the same as saying when Resolute Support ends, or is there going to be a separate U.S. function in the war? 8/n
MR. KIRBY: The removal of combat forces ends the combat mission in #Afghanistan for the US. & what's left is enough force posture to protect our diplomatic presence, & that's going to be the focus of US forces in AFG, once the withdrawal is complete. 9/n
The best way to do this is to go back to the President's order, which is to withdraw all US combat forces from #Afghanistan. That's what the retrograde's all about. & when that mission is complete & we transition to two new missions -- protecting our diplomats and… 10/n
…transitioning to a new bilateral relationship with #Afghanistan.
Q: Will you announce the end of the retrograde?
MR. KIRBY: We'll be as transparent as we possibly can. 11/n
Q: Along the lines of initial logistical support, the Afghan press is saying that the U.S. will provide 37 additional Blackhawks to the Afghan military and two fixed wing aircraft. Can you say anything about that? 12/n
MR. KIRBY: No, I've seen the press reports on that. I'm not in a position to confirm that level of detail. Again, what we've said before is that we're going to continue to support them over the horizon in a logistical capacity & certainly in a financial way… 13/n
…I've got nothing on those specifics in terms of the numbers of aircraft.
Q: Well can you say anything about -- you expect additional aircraft to go to the Afghan military? 14/n
MR. KIRBY: Honestly, those kinds of details are still being worked out, and I just think it's too soon to say, with any great specificity right now, in terms of aircraft transfers. 15/n
Q: On #Afghanistan, the AP's reported that there will be 650 US troops at the embassy, hundreds more helping the Turks w/the airport security. Can you confirm that? & in light that the #Taliban has doubled the number of districts it controls since May 1st… 16/n
…so in the wake of that, is the Pentagon & the administration rethinking its post-withdrawal strategy to include defensive strikes against the #Taliban, in addition to the strikes against #ISIS and #AlQaeda forces who threaten the homelands of the U.S. and Western allies? 17/n
MR. KIRBY: That was more than one more question.
(LAUGHTER)
On the numbers, no, I've seen the press reporting by the Associated Press. I cannot confirm the specific numbers. Important, though, to keep in mind that, as we've said, we're going to have a certain amount… 18/n
…of US troops remain in #Afghanistan to protect our diplomatic presence. We have to do that. & AFG is not going to be treated like any other nation, where we have Marine security guards. I mean, it's AFG & we understand the dynamic nature of the security threat there… 19/n
…So there will be some number of US troops there, & security at the airport is critical to being able to protect & have a diplomatic presence on the ground. We are still working out some of the details of what the security situation is going to look like at the airport… 20/n
…& how that's going to be facilitated. I think you all reported that, as you & I speak, there are U.S. troops at the airport. What the future of that looks like, we just don't know right now. So we haven't worked our way through that. And future missions, I'm simply not… 21/n
…going to speculate or hypothesize, except to say, once the withdrawal of combat forces from #Afghanistan is over, we will have two new mission sets at DOD. One is to have a presence in Kabul that is sufficient to the task of protecting our diplomacy there. And two… 22/n
…to have a new bilateral relationship with Afghan forces that is designed to help their needs for competency & capability in the field, but it'll be over the horizon log spt & some financial support. Those are the two mission sets & the president was very clear about that. 23/n
Q: So is the administration OK with the #Taliban taking these many gains and potentially taking over the country of #Afghanistan?
MR. KIRBY: We have said before, the violence remains too high. & we're all aware of the security situation in #Afghanistan… 24/n
…I think you saw General Miller speak to that earlier today, concerns over the security situation there. What we'd like to see is the #Taliban return to the peace process in a credible way. & as we see events on the ground unfold, it certainly calls into question… 25/n
…the sincerity of their efforts to be a legitimate, credible participant in the peace process. The right future for #Afghanistan is a pol process that leads to a negotiated settlement & a peaceful end to the fighting. & that's what the admin’s policy’s trying to pursue. 26/n
Q: On #Afghanistan, you said there are currently U.S. troops at the airport. Are they going to be part of the diplomatic mission or are they going to be pulled out? 27/n
MR. KIRBY: I'm not going to get ahead of plans. I'm just saying, as we speak now -- you know, and that's been the case for quite some time. Any of you who've traveled to Kabul will know that. What that's going to look like going forward, we're still working out… 28/n
…Whatever US troops remain in #Afghanistan after the withdrawal is complete are there to protect our diplomats & preserve our ability to have a diplomatic presence there, because the president's been very clear that he wants to keep that embassy open & US programs in play. 29/n
Q: How do you plan to mark the end of the Afghan War? It seems as though no senior leaders are flying over there. Is there a ceremony planned or are you just going to kind of go out quietly in the middle of the night? 30/n
MR. KIRBY: I'm not going to speak to VIP travel, but I can assure you we're all mindful of the fact this war is now two decades on & is coming to a close. & of our responsibility to communicate the closure of that to you & the American people & we will do that… 31/n
…We also have to be especially mindful of the dynamic situation in #Afghanistan. You can't compare it to the retrograde out of #Iraq. Completely different security situation. We've said all along that we have to assume that it could be contested. It hasn't been so far… 32/n
…We also said that we want to make it orderly & safe. It has been so far & we want to keep that going until the very end. But yes, we will find a way to mark it officially and to state it unequivocally for the American people at the right time and in an appropriate way. 33/n
Q: At this point how many district have the #Taliban taken and how many have the Afghans taken back? And then of the troops that have yet to come out are you able to share information on what units they're from? 34/n
MR. KIRBY: On the number of districts we know that they continue to attack district centers. I'm no going to get into an intel assessment here. But clearly we know that they continue these attacks. & the violence is too high & as General Miller said today… 35/n
…the security situation certainly is concerning over there. But I couldn't get into a specific number of district centers right now that they have taken over. What's important to say is that we want to see a peace process that's credible & Afghan led & leads to a… 36/n
…negotiated settlement & that's what we all want to see the #Taliban commit to is to sitting down at the table & working through this negotiation. So the pol solution is really the best solution for the Afghan people. & nothing's changed about the US desire to that end. 37/n
I don't have a breakdown of units that have left or are leaving & where they're going to that's really a better question put to CENTCOM. I just don't have that level of detail. But as you well know, there wasn't all that many troops left in #Afghanistan… 38/n
…when President Biden took office anyway. So it shouldn't come as a shock that we're able to move them out at a brisk pace. And again we're trying to do this in a very safe and orderly way understanding that the security situation is still dynamic. 39/n
Q: You & others repeat that the level of violence is too high in #Afghanistan & the advance of the #Taliban is concerning. The amt of times you say it makes me wonder is there a situation where the violence remains too high that the US would adjust its stance on the pullout? 40/n
If not, then why is this an issue to keep saying that the level of violence is too high & very concerning?
MR. KIRBY: It's an issue because it's an issue. It's an issue because the violence is too high & the Afghan people deserve better after 20 years of war. & that's why… 41/n
…we continue to urge a diplomatic end to this war, a political process that leads to a negotiated settlement that is Afghan-led & is in keeping with the Afghan people's desire for peace & security & prosperity in their country. That's why we keep saying it, b/c it's true… 42/n
…because it's important to stressing the need for a diplomatic end to this war. 43/43
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Q: The #Taliban have made some significant gains in recent weeks & even as recently as past weekend…especially in the North. Is @SecDef considering recommending a slowdown in the withdrawal or other changes to minimize a chance of an early collapse of the Afghan forces? 2/n
MR. KIRBY: I would say w/o speaking specifically to the #Taliban advances you spoke to, as @SecDef has said, the withdrawal is on pace. It is a dynamic situation & we've said that from the very beginning, which means that he, the chairman, & Gen McKenzie, are constantly… 3/n
.@USNavyCNO this isn’t right. In a time of focus on diversity & inclusion in #DOD, the @USNavy should *not* have a blanket “no autism” policy. Respectfully asking you to take this on—this young man deserves a chance!
In this issue of Survival: Global Politics & Strategy, @LaurelMillerICG brings some hard truths about Biden's decision to withdraw from #Afghanistan. Some highlights to follow... 1/n
"The ‘ending forever war’ slogan may be in vogue among critics of involvement in #Afghanistan, but it is hard to imagine that, had Biden believed that truly crucial goals were at stake, he would have declared that time was up simply because it was taking too long to achieve them"
"The problem was not that American involvement in the war was endless; it was that the US found itself unable to end its involvement on the terms that it preferred..." 3/n
Q: @usairforce Acting Sec, John Roth, yesterday told Congress that for now the over-the-horizon capability to support #Afghanistan will be from the existing footprint that the USAF has in the region & I'm wondering if that means there haven't been any inroads made... 2/n
...w/potentially new locations to move US forces to provide that over-the-horizon capability?
MR. KIRBY: We already have an over-the-horizon #counterterrorism capability there & other parts of the world, & we are already using that OTH capability in #Afghanistan. 3/n
Q: Considering that @CENTCOM is saying they're not going to provide % any longer on #Afghanistan troop & equip withdrawal, I was wondering if there's any progress on getting us either DLA or some type of briefing on some of the things that can be discussed about the w/drawal? 2/n
And my second Q is has @SecDef had any discussions with #Turkey about security at the airport in #Afghanistan and do you see negotiations progressing on that issue? 3/n
I’ve gotten a lot of questions recently about how the #ANDSF might fare after the US withdraws from #Afghanistan. I’m going to put some thoughts on that in this THREAD. 1/n
First, a recap, as I’ve written about this before. In JAN, I published this net assessment of the #ANDSF vs the #Taliban, in which I concluded the latter would have a slight military advantage after US advisors left. 2/n ctc.usma.edu/afghanistans-s…
That conclusion was largely due to the #Taliban’s advantages of cohesion & financial self-sustainability, & not being as numerically outnumbered as most people think. But I acknowledged some key #ANDSF advantages, the most notable of which is air power. 3/n