Thread by @JJSchroden

Comments on #Afghanistan from @PentagonPresSec's #DOD press conference late last week in this THREAD. 1/n
defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…

Q: A couple things on the president speech on #Afghanistan. Can you say what, if any, progress DOD is making on the over-the-horizon negotiations? & can you talk a little bit about the #Taliban and what progress they've made on district takeovers? 2/n

How far do you think they've gotten? I've heard over a hundred. At this point can you talk a little bit about what the situation is on the ground with the #Taliban?

MR. KIRBY: So, on over-the-horizon capabilities, we continue to explore additional OTH capabilities... 3/n

...w/neighboring nations. I don't have any agreements that are inked to read out to you today. But GEN McKenzie, our State Dept colleagues, & of course, the secretary himself is exploring this daily. We're still working through this... 4/n

...I would hasten to add that we already have OTH counterterrorism capabilities at our disposal. & it's fairly robust. We've got a sizable footprint in the Middle East & facilities ashore that we can utilize with fixed-wing air assets, both manned & unmanned, in the region... 5/n

As well as a carrier strike group in waters not far from #Afghanistan that continues to provide additional capabilities. So we are making progress, we are working this very, very hard, & as we get solutions that we can talk to we certainly will do that... 6/n

...But I do want to make sure it's very clear to the American people that we already have in place robust, capable OTH capability to continue to get at the terrorist threats that are affecting the homeland. I'd also add that certainly the more significant terrorist threats... 7/n

...to our interest and the interest of our friends and partners has metastasized outside #Afghanistan. We aren't seeing the same level of terrorism threat emanating from AFG that we once did. & that's a big reason why the president ordered the drawdown... 8/n

...We had accomplished the mission of not getting attacked from #Afghanistan here on the homeland over the last 20 years. Doesn't mean we're taking an eye off the ball, doesn't mean we're not going to try to maintain a focus on this or continue to have the authorities... 9/n

...& the capabilities to go after terrorists that threaten the homeland from #Afghanistan. But there are other places that that threat has metastasized to: #Africa, other places in the Middle East that we need to be focused on too... 10/n

...Your second question on the #Taliban, I don't have an up-to-date operational assessment of TB advances. As you know, we don't talk about intel assessments & I don't want to get into the habit of reading out, you know, the TB's military strategy... 11/n

...They have taken dozens of district centers, that is true. & we believe that they mean to threaten provincial centers as well. But I just don't think it'll be useful for me to get into a tick-tock of everything they've been doing on the ground... 12/n

...We are mindful of the security situation. We are mindful of the #Taliban's advances. & that's why it is so important for us to continue to press for a negotiated political settlement to this war. That's why it is so important, as you heard the president just say... 13/n

...for the Afghan govt & the Afghan military to use the capacity & the capability that they have, & that we have helped me them engender over the last 20 years, to defend themselves, their government, & their territory, & their people. 14/n

Q: The president said that interpreters might be moved to facilities outside the continental US. That is fairly limiting in the number of facilities. Could you talk a little bit about what these potential facilities could be that the interpreters could be sent to? 15/n

MR. KIRBY: You heard the president say that US installations overseas as well as third countries, & we are looking at a range of options in that regard. You said it was limiting; I think I would challenge that presumption. You also heard the president say that of the... 16/n

...2,500 or so that have worked their way through the SIV process to that point, that less than half of them have indicated a willingness to move at this point. So the numbers wouldn't necessarily connote to a level that was so high that we couldn't manage it with either... 17/n

...a range of US installations overseas, US military installations, or third countries. We're still working at this very hard w/countries in & out of the region. & as I said before, DOD is looking very hard at installations, overseas installations that we possess... 18/n

...or that we're using that might prove valuable.

Q: Has DOD been requested by State to look at specific installations to potentially house the interpreters?

MR. KIRBY: It's less about State asking us to look at specific installations, as it is about our task in this... 19/n

...inter-agency process is to look at our installations overseas & to recommend to State & to DHS what installations we think might fill the need. & I think, depending on the numbers here, we don't have a perfect sense of what the demand signal is going to be... 20/n

But what we're assuming is that we've got to have some flexible options here, that it's not just going to be one & done, like one installation & that's it & they all have to go there. We want to preserve some flexibility in the process to be able to absorb numbers as they... 21/n

...flex up or down. So I would anticipate that we would want to be ready as a govt for a range of different places that they can go to as they continue to process their way through the system. 22/n

Q: When we've asked this in the past, you've often said, you know, we do already have a robust over-the-horizon response and ability. So I guess my question is, why is there a need for additional sites? 23/n

MR. KIRBY: Same reason I just gave you with SIVs, flexibility, options. One of the things that we prize highly here at the Pentagon is options & being agile & being nimble in case you need to do something differently. Plus, look, geography is geography... 24/n

...so the options that we have available to us, though they are robust & we are using them, there is a geography component here. I mean, there is great distances to cover. So we would also like to pursue the possibility of capabilities that are closer to #Afghanistan... 25/n

...And that's really what -- that's where the headspace is right now. 26/n

Q: The pres said our eyes will be firmly fixed on #Afghanistan. That applies in the mil tech world, possibly persistent intel surveillance, recon drones, electronic combat planes & drones. Is that what he's referring to, a persistent air presence outside looking into AFG? 27/n

MR. KIRBY: W/o getting into too much specifics on intel assets & resources, I think you can expect that we plan to use a range of ISR capabilities at our disposal. & we also intend to leverage the strong relationship we have with the Afghan forces, who will still be on... 28/n

...the ground & who will still have info in context that they can provide us. We're not walking away from that relationship. We're certainly not going to walk away from the knowledge, the context, the cultural understanding that our Afghan partners will be able to provide. 29/n

Q: Pulling together some of this, the threads that came out of the White House, the press conference today, the president disclosed there is about 75,000 #Taliban, that's a new figure, arrayed against over 300,000 Afghan security forces --

MR. KIRBY: Yes, sure.

30/n

Q: well-equipped, we've spent like $74B on them over the last 20 years, according to SIGAR. The #Taliban is not the N. Vietnamese Army. Afghans are well-equipped. But as we leave, the TB controls more territory now than they did in 2001. From a broad military perspective... 31/n

...can you tell us why the #Taliban has been so resilient given the forces arrayed against them & the dollars we've spent over there?

MR. KIRBY: I don't want to be in a position where I'm defending the tactics & the strategy of the TB. They have never not wanted to have... 32/n

...governance capability in #Afghanistan. I mean, this has been a persistent goal of theirs. & they are able to operate inside the population in ways that official uniformed personnel are not able to do necessarily as easily or as adeptly. & they also -- unlike the #ANDSF... 33/n

...they use intimidation & torture & cruel methods to achieve their ends through fear & intimidation. I can't speak for why that's necessarily more effective than other strategies in #Afghanistan. But don't miss the larger point that I think the pres was trying to make... 34/n

...That over the last 20 years, whether you are one who is in favor of the mission or not, over the last 20 years through great blood & treasure, we & our allies -- it hasn't just been the US -- have helped build a capacity inside the #ANDSF which is impressive... 35/n

...They have an air force -- a competent air force -- the #Taliban has none. They do have more forces in the field than what we estimate the TB to have. & they have modern weaponry & they have had the training to use that weaponry. The question -- & this is what... 36/n

...the president was getting at -- was are they going to use that capacity. Do they have that will to use that capacity? We know they're fighters & they have been in the fight. They have taken a lot of casualties over the last year alone. You guys have all covered that... 37/n

There's not an issue about bravery or courage here. So the question is now, for them, are they willing & able to come together as a govt & use that capacity that they have. & they will do it -- again as the president said just a little bit ago, they'll do it with our help... 38/n

...It's not like, we're clapping hands & walking away. They're still going to get financial support. The president just pledged, I think, another $300M. We're going to continue to work on improving their air force & their air force capabilities. The sec just recently... 39/n

...agreed to deliver two refurbished UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters with another 35 to come. We're going to help manage an overhaul process for some of their Mi-17 helicopters. & we're going to purchase another three Super Tucano A-29 aircraft for them... 40/n

...So we're committed in very tangible ways to improving their air force capabilities & we're also going to be working to provide log or maintenance support for their forces going forward.

Q: You were a spokesman for Gen Allen there in #Afghanistan --

MR. KIRBY: I was. 41/n

Q: -- 9 years ago or so. So to what extent is the #Taliban's resilience a product of the fact that #Pakistan has allowed the Haqqani Network & other orgs of the TB, to use their territory to refurbish & go back into #Afghanistan? 42/n

...Is that one of the historic reasons for their resilience?

MR. KIRBY: The safe havens along that border have historically been a problem, there's no question about that. & we know that the #Taliban have been able to use safe havens along that spine to refurbish... 43/n

...to retrain, to replenish themselves, to plan. & that's something that we are in constant communication w/#Pakistan about. I would also remind, & I think it's too easy to forget, that PAK itself had become victim to terrorist networks operating out of some of those... 44/n

...same safe havens. So it's a problem that they share too. & we're going to continue to work with them about how to better close down those safe havens. 45/n

Q: I've got a question for #Afghanistan. First on #Pakistan. What kind of commitment and assurance have you received from Pakistan that they will not let territories to be used as a safe haven for terrorists? 46/n

MR. KIRBY: I won't talk for the Pakistani govt. I'm certainly not going to divulge conversations that we're having with Pakistani leaders. This is something that we routinely talk to #Pakistan about. It is a concern that Pakistanis share. & they too have suffered at the... 47/n

...hands of these groups operating out of those safe havens. It's a difficult problem to solve. We know there's more work that needs to be done. & we're going to continue to have those conversations with our Pakistani counterparts. 48/n

Q: & one of the stated goals of the Obama-Biden admin for being in #Afghanistan was to destroy, dismantle & defeat the terrorists & #Taliban in particular. And now since they are gaining so much ground in Afghanistan, do you think that goal has been achieved there? 49/n

MR. KIRBY: I think you're understanding the goal incorrectly. The goal was deter, dismantle & defeat #AlQaida & that has been accomplished. Now, that doesn't mean that there aren't still AQ operatives or cells in #Afghanistan. I'm not saying that they aren't... 50/n

...But they are nothing like the organization they were on 9/11 20 years ago. & that's a real testament to the hard work that our men & women in uniform accomplished, our Afghan partners accomplished, & our NATO & coalition allies accomplished in #Afghanistan over the... 51/n

...last 20 years. They are a greatly reduced threat. They're still there, but they're a greatly reduced threat.

Q: And one final question on, as you withdraw from #Afghanistan, what is the message that you want to send to two countries in the region, #Iran and #India? 52/n

MR. KIRBY: As we withdraw out of #Afghanistan? If you're asking what message that we have to send to them that has to do with AFG, I think the president covered this quite well today when he was taking questions: that we want all countries in the region to want the same... 53/n

...thing that we want for the Afghans, which is peace & security & stability & an Afghan-led negotiated process that leads to a political settlement that is up to the Afghans, & for their future to be determined by them. So our hope is that other nations in the region... 54/n

...whatever they do, whatever their bilateral relations are with #Afghanistan, it is to support that end, a negotiated peaceful solution, so that it doesn't render into civil war, & that there's an AFG that is peaceful, prosperous & secure going forward that the Afghan... 55/n

...people own that they decide; a future that they decide. & that's what we want all of the countries to take to heart too.

Q: When experts refer to the #Afghanistan-#Pakistan region, they've called it terrorism central. There's still 20 or so terrorism groups there... 56/n

...So when you said that the terror threat has metastasized...Are they strong now elsewhere than they are in this #Afghanistan-#Pakistan region? Larger numbers, greater capabilities to attack the homeland, what exactly are you talking about? 57/n

MR. KIRBY: What I'm talking about is that we're not seeing the sorts of threats to the homeland emanating from #Afghanistan the way they did in 2001 or even in years subsequent to 2001. We're simply not seeing that. & we don't want to see it return, which is why... 58/n

...the president talked today about being so focused on making sure that we're able to watch what's going on in #Afghanistan from a persistent perspective & to be able to act on that knowledge as quickly as possible so that that threat can't rise to the level that it was... 59/n

...in 2001 from #Afghanistan. So we're just not seeing the same level of terrorist threat out of AFG at that level. There are other places where the threat of terrorism is growing. Now, is it growing to the level that I can stand here and predict an immediate attack on the...60/n

...homeland? No. But we are seeing the terrorism threat migrate to other places around the world, particularly in Africa & that's something we need to be focused on. 61/n

Q: Can you provide more info on which specific US facilities have been identified as part of the SIV applicant process to hold them as, their visas or -- or what region at least? 62/n

MR. KIRBY: I'm not going to be able to detail specific installations. We're just not at that point right now to be able to list them. There are several US military installations overseas that are being considered. & regionally I'd say almost globally in terms of where... 63/n

...we're looking at. There's not -- like, one part of the world, you know, that we're solely focused on in terms of where we could house some of these individuals. It's truly, sort of, a global look. 64/n

Q: If the #Taliban have taken over dozen of district centers in #Afghanistan why aren't you launching air strikes to support the Afghan government? 65/n

MR. KIRBY: I would tell you that, again, we still have the authorities to support #ANDSF in the field. Those decisions are & will continue to be made on a case-by-case basis. I'm not prepared to go through the rules of engagement here with you in this forum... 66/n

...But as the drawdown continues, some of those capabilities will change over time. But it's also really important that the Afghans stand up to this threat. & it's not like they aren't, everywhere. The narrative that they aren't pushing back, that they aren't fighting... 67/n

...that they're not capable -- that's not what we're seeing. So it's important that they continue to use the capacity that they have, including their own air force which does have strike capabilities -- competent strike capabilities. 68/n

Q: But if you have all the authorities you need, you have an aircraft carrier sitting in the Arabian Sea, you have 44 Super Hornets, why aren't you unleashing those jets on the #Taliban to help your Afghan partners? 69/n

MR. KIRBY: We are helping our Afghan partners. & the focus right now militarily is to get the drawdown complete, to do that in a safe way, to transition to a new relationship with our Afghan partners, & to help reinforce for the Afghan govt & the Afghan forces the... 70/n

...capacities that they already have intrinsic to them. I won't get into a case-by-case -- this is in, this is out -- discussion here from the podium. I think you can understand why we wouldn't do that. But they already have a lot of capability at their disposal to... 71/n

...assist themselves in these efforts. & I would remind you that in the year or so before the president announced the drawdown Afghans were in the lead of the great majority of operations inside their country -- in the lead for almost every perspective. 72/n

Q: No one believes that...

MR. KIRBY: Do -- no one believes that, or you don't believe that?

Q: Yes, I think a lot of us do not believe that the Afghans are in the lead for all these operations you're talking about. 73/n

MR. KIRBY: They were in the lead for the vast majority of the operations in their country over the last year. And maybe you don't believe that. That's fine. 74/n

Q: Just following up on questions about the US facilities overseas.

MR. KIRBY: Yes.

Q: If they're in third countries --

MR. KIRBY: Potentially.

Q: -- potentially if they are, does that mean that these U.S. facilities need the permission of the host country for this -- 75/n

MR. KIRBY: Sure.

Q: -- to happen? And since the president did say, you know, starting this month --

MR. KIRBY: Right.

Q: -- does that mean that you are on the verge of getting approval from, potentially, some of these countries? 76/n

MR. KIRBY: The short answer to your first question is yes. Now, some U.S. installations that we're looking at are ours, on US territory. Some would be installations that don't belong to us, that are in host nations, but that we have access to and that we're using... 77/n

...&yes, absolutely you would have to talk to the host nation about that and make sure that you have their permission and approval. & then there are some possibilities & options in third nations or other nations, at locations that have nothing to do with US military... 78/n

...that we're not in & we don't use. But just other nations that might be willing to take some of these people in temporarily. So again, there's a range of options that we're looking at. I'm not going to get ahead of the decision-making process. You heard the president... 79/n

...say that we're going to start moving them out very soon & over the course of the next 2-3 weeks. & we're all mindful of that timeline & that goal. But as to exactly where the first group are going to go, I'm not prepared to speak with that level of specificity right now. 80/n

Q: And aside from these U.S. facilities, which we can assume are U.S. military for the most part, would there be any role in -- for the U.S. military to evacuate some of these personnel? Or is this possibly just, again, whole-of-government chartered aircraft (inaudible)? 81/n

MR. KIRBY: I think some of this remains to be seen. As I said the other day, the State Dept is in the lead & the State Dept knows how to do this. This is not their first turn at this, especially with the Special Immigrant Visa Program. & they typically use chartered... 82/n

...aircraft, commercial aircraft that's chartered by the government to fly people out. I think that's probably going to be the preferred option here going forward. Obviously we have transportation capabilities that, if needed, we would be able to lend to the effort... 83/n

...I'm not seeing that right now in terms of a huge demand signal for it. The other thing -- and again, the president alluded to this -- is how many takers are you going to have, because that could also drive capacity. So again, I think there's a lot of questions we still...84/n

...have to answer. Right now, our focus in this interagency process is on identifying military installations that could be of use for this temporary housing. & we will be prepared if we're needed to expand those requirements beyond just installation & identification... 85/n

...But that's where we are right now. 86/n

Q: Continuing on that subject, can you talk to us a little bit about what Afghans are supposed to be doing to prepare for the process of this potential evacuation? There are people who still haven't heard anything about what might be coming or what they're supposed to do... 87/n

...Is the State Dept or DOD going to reach out to these people & say, "You need to come to X airport at this time to go here"? This seems like a very elaborate process that needs to happen in the next, month or two, & nobody's been told what they're supposed to do. 88/n

MR. KIRBY: I can't speak for my colleagues at the State Dept & the specific notifications & communications that they're having with individuals. That's really a question for my colleagues over there, because it is under the Special Immigrant Visa Program & that is run by... 89/n

...the State Dept. But I do know from prior experience at the State Dept that there is a process for doing that; for communicating with individuals who have qualified. & as the president said, that the first group we're talking about are individuals who have gone through... 90/n

...almost all the approval process. So certainly, our State Dept colleagues know who they are. & they do have procedures & protocols in place to communicate with them. I just can't speak to each individual case, to tell you who's getting a call & who isn't... 91/n

...That's really a question better put for my colleagues at the State Department. 92/n

Q: There was an unconfirmed report this week that #Turkey may be looking to deploy Syrian mercenaries to #Afghanistan in support of a potential Kabul Airport mission. It's an unconfirmed report, but given that Turkey has deployed Syrian mercenaries... 93/n

...to other conflicts, you know, in North Africa and the region, in the Caucus, can you say unequivocally that this would not be acceptable to the United States if there's going to be cooperation with #Turkey on Kabul Airport? 94/n

MR. KIRBY: I have not seen that press reporting. I'm certainly not in a position to confirm that report. I think broadly speaking, w/o getting into that specific press report, we believe that security at the airport is absolutely critical for being able to have a... 95/n

...diplomatic presence. & not just our diplomatic presence, but the diplomatic presence of other nations who want to stay in Kabul & #Afghanistan. Point one. Point two, because it's so critical, it would be extraordinarily important to us that that security presence be... 96/n

...competent & capable & subject to international rule of law, & the proper conduct & behavior for international security forces; that they would be responsible to those protocols and accountable to those kinds of protocols. I think that's about as far as I'll go. END. 97/97