🧡

@BBCNews's campaign against self isolation risks damaging public health, giving #COVID19 a free reign

Why campaign?

I'm desperately searching for balanced coverage but all stories tell how isolation is damaging business

For every positive just 2.6 app users isolating

1/
2/

The reason isolations are so high is because cases are concentrated into children and the working population

With 42k cases yesterday and likely more than half the population protected by double vaccination, that gives you similar prevalence in at risk pop to January peek
3/

We know that asymptomatic transmission accounts for 40%+ of all cases.

But this is typical of @BBCNews output:

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

TL;DR:

Isolation is bad for businesses and remember you only get a pittance if asked to isolate
4/

How have some countries done well?

With proper Test, Track, Isolate and Support as frequently referred to by @chrischirp, @dgurdasani1 @globalhlthtwit et. al.

nature.com/articles/d4158…

The best countries have had far lower numbers of cases through better TTIS
5/

ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar…

Yes, isolation is onerous.

Yes 10+ people isolating per case is a lot.

BUT suppressing cases means a lot lest hours lost to isolation.
6/

BBC response is to trash talk S Korea



Human minds will focus on large numbers and are a great way to fool people into missing the important details

cc. @Kit_Yates_Maths
7/

Half a million isolation requests focuses your attention in a way that 2.6 isolations per case does not...

It appears @BorisJohnson has the business and the BBC on his side in his quest to infect everyone as quickly as possible...

/end

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More from @ConcernedofBri1

13 Jul
These make for interesting reading:

Β§7 92% vaccine uptake vs 96% - have to assume this is adult and importantly, for at least a week it has looked like we will top out at around 90%

High instability because w/o vaccinating children, you have reservoir susceptible

1/
2/

Β§8 PCR testing capacity is 578k per day and may be exceeded in period of high prevalence lasting until the end of August.

😳

So that is why they are ramping up testing.

Expecting more than 578k tests a day... Image
3/

Β§9 risk of high prevalence leading to the emergence of new variant explicitly acknowledged.

Through mechanism of high prevalence + high levels of vaccination.

Significant risk to UK + other countries if it happens.

#JohnsonVariant
Read 13 tweets
23 Jun
.@CMO_England wondering if you can explain why we appear to have a strategy designed to breed a vaccine resistant strain of #COVID19 + why your office is silent on this idiocy?

Large numbers of children infected by Delta, mixing with parents who are partially vaccinated...

1/
2/ It's easy to see this - and that it's not an artefact from @IanDenton12's charting:

3/

Any biologist can tell you there will be a variety of viral mutations within an infected person.

By failing to mitigate spread in children, we are selecting for some mutations...
Read 19 tweets
14 Dec 20
1/

This video crystallises something that has been bugging me

Please read this 🧡 and see if you can help me understand

First, watch the video and then compare + contrast with the one in the next Tweet

πŸ€”

Also, today has raised a new really important question at the end…
2/

On May 6th @MattHancock believed that children in school spread #COVID19.

And on December 10th he believed children in school spread COVID.

gov.uk/government/spe…
3/

So the first question is:

What the hell happened in between?

Why were children sent back to school with measures known to be inadequate to prevent the spread of COVID?

They seeded the second wave and this lead to c. 21k additional deaths so far? Half term dips show how important schools are in transmissioChildren were the only group not to see cases reduce in lock
Read 11 tweets
30 Nov 20
With @imperialcollege React 7a results there is a question that desperately needs asking.

Why did the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 fall in every age group apart from the two including school children?

1/
2/

I remember when the lie was:

-children don't catch #COVID
-children only catch it from adults
-children don't transmit it to each other.

@CMO_England this is really starting to look like solid evidence the above were lies.
3/

Children started with the highest prevalence & are the only groups with more cases after #lockdown2

If I were:

@theflva
@ukactive
@RoyalAcadMusic
@apac_ssn
@CBI_London

I would be furious that all the sacrifices were squandered so @HuwMerriman didn't have to back down
Read 9 tweets
29 Nov 20
This is not a pop @NicolaSturgeon any more than @BorisJohnson, but the argument that it's too soon to make comparisons is wearing thin.

UK:
1.6M cases (pop. 67.9M)
85.7 deaths/100k

S. Korea
34k cases (pop. 51.6M)
1.0 deaths/100k

1/
2/

The UK has a death toll that is 86 times that of South Korea and 34% f those deaths happened after 1 June 2020.

Date chose as that's when the first lockdown ended.
3/

Well... Started to end...

Comparing and learning could have started well before then - there were definitely lessons to be learned when our death toll stood at around 40x South Korea's.
Read 9 tweets
27 Nov 20
@KatharineDC Here's an example of why @BBCNews is gaining a reputation for bias

Bias is a subtle tool

Either lazy journalism means the writer missed Y7-11 have the most cases of any age (>2%) or they were trying to create the impression of a problem that is overhyped

Bias

1/
2/

Relatively few is wrong

Look at @ONS data: you see only 6th Form - 24 even come close to 2%

NB: These @ONS demographics seem to carry bias too

Why not count all school children?

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

Look at the Half Term Dips in Y12 - 24!

Universities don’t have HT…
3/

Perhaps the author tried to convey something else & failed

No idea how you would analyse this, but maybe more isolations do occur in students relative to adults who test positive

But this is a symptom of the problem πŸ‘‡
Read 8 tweets

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